Well, it finally happened. After several 2-2 and 3-1 weeks, I knew one of these Saturdays would result in either a clean sweep or total disaster.
Guess which one hit first?
Michigan State, Missouri, USC and Kansas State all lost handily last week to hand me my first 0-4 Saturday in college football. I haven’t slept in a week, but I’m ready to put it behind me and start fresh. I won’t even talk about a 4-0 weekend. A win would be nice.
No. 3 TCU @ No. 5 Utah, 3:30PM ET
I’m well aware of how good TCU is: ninth in rushing offense, No. 1 in total defense, No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 4 in pass efficiency defense. But I don’t know, something doesn’t sit right with me about this year’s TCU team. The Frogs don’t seem as dominant as they’ve been the past three years and I wonder if they’re heading into a buzz saw this Saturday in Utah. I don’t know if the Utes win outright but I think it’ll be close throughout, which is why I’m taking the points. This is a field goal game either way.
THE PICK: UTAH +4.5
Hawaii @ No. 4 Boise State, 3:30PM ET
This is going to be a fun game regardless of the outcome. Boise State is second in the nation in scoring offense, while Hawaii is 11th. While the Broncos defense gets credit for being the stinger of the two units, the Warriors are a respectable 39th in total defense this season. It’s going to be difficult for Hawaii to pick up a win on the smurf turf this Saturday but something tells me they keep this game close. The Warriors are 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings with the Broncos, so I’ll take the points.
THE PICK: HAWAII +21
No. 6 Alabama @ No. 10 LSU, 3:30PM ET
This is a tough matchup for LSU. The Tigers have the 34th-best rushing offense in the nation but rank a putrid No. 113 through the air. That’s going to be a problem against an Alabama defense that ranks 17th against the run and second in scoring. Baton Rouge is always a tough place to play, but I think the Tide rolls here (no pun intended). ‘Bama is 6-1 against the number in the last seven meetings between these two teams in Louisiana and 3-1-1 ATS in its lat five meetings with LSU. The road team is also 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings between these two teams, so I’m laying the points with the Tide.
THE PICK: ALABAMA –6.5
North Carolina @ No. 24 Florida State, 3:30PM ET
Given how bad the Tar Heels have looked the past two weeks (they suffered a 33-10 loss to Miami two weeks ago and then narrowly beat the juggernaut that is William & Mary 21-17 last Saturday), I don’t blame people for hoping on the FSU bandwagon for this week. But UNC is 4-1 against the spread in its last five meetings with FSU in Tallahassee, while the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams. The road team is also 4-0 ATS in the last four overall meetings and I like the Tar Heels to show more fight this week than they have the past two Saturdays.
THE PICK: NORTH CAROLINA +10.5
Season Record: 13-15
