We’re not there yet, but I’m driving straight into patheticville with my NFL picks this year. After a 1-3 Sunday in Week 7 (thank you Chargers, Saints and Cowboys for showing up in your respective games), I’m now 10-13-1 on the year. It’s getting to the point where I can’t even look at myself in the mirror anymore.
Fade me at will…
Redskins @ Lions, 1:00PM ET
I love the Lions this Sunday. Matthew Stafford (shoulder) is back to full health and is reportedly “unleashing 70-yard bombs” in practice. The Redskins’ secondary can be hit or miss, even though DeAngelo Hall is coming off a four-interception game against the Bears and Jay Cutler last week. This will also be Washington’s second-straight road game and the Skins have their bye coming up, so there’s a chance they could get caught flatfooted. This Lions team has a different feel to it this year and is definitely playing with more confidence offensively. Assuming Stafford doesn’t suffer another setback with his shoulder, I like Detroit by a touchdown.
THE PICK: LIONS –2.5
Titans @ Chargers, 4:05PM ET
The Chargers burned me last week against the Patriots but I’m going right back to the well this Sunday because I’m not that smart. Despite what the final score read, their defense played extremely well against New England last week and if it weren’t for a slew of mistakes by the offense, they probably beat the Pats soundly. No matter – I see them scooping up a win this Sunday against Tennessee. Vince Young hasn’t played a full game in three weeks and he may need a quarter or two to shake off the rust. I see San Diego controlling Chris Johnson and forcing the Titans into a shootout, which is something they don’t want with Young back under center. As long as the Bolts figure out a way to slow Kenny Britt, they should rebound from last week’s debacle.
THE PICK: CHARGERS –3.5
Seahawks @ Raiders, 4:15PM ET
Their 59-point effort last week was a mirage, but the Raiders are better than people think. When healthy, Darren McFadden can be an elite back as he showed last week in Denver. I don’t have a ton of confidence in Jason Campbell or Oakland’s shoddy defense, but their lambasting of the Broncos last week should give them confidence moving forward. On the other side, the Seahawks have won two in a row but I’m still not convinced that this team can win on the road consistently. Despite their win in Chicago two weeks ago, I think the Hawks revert back to their losing ways away from Seattle.
THE PICK: RAIDERS –2.5
Steelers @ Saints, 8:20PM ET
This may fall into the category of a trap, but I actually think the Saints are this bad without Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Their offense lacks that punch that won them a Super Bowl a year ago and they’re in trouble with Pittsburgh coming to town. It’s true that the Steelers can be had through the air, but they don’t give up points inside the red zone. They lead the league in points allowed and Drew Brees had all kinds of trouble in the red zone last week against the Browns. He’s pressing, which is unlike him, but I don’t see any signs of him shaking out of it either. I think New Orleans is in legitimate trouble this year and another loss would put them two back of the Falcons in the NFC South. Not good.
THE PICK: STEELERS +1
