Updated 10/7/10 with the news that Jay Cutler would miss Week 5.
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week you pick up a defense that is playing against a bad offense (preferably at home). And each week you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position.
Last season, my top pick averaged 9.8 fantasy points per game. My second pick averaged 9.1 and my third pick averaged 7.3. On the whole, DTBWW averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game, which equate to DT5 numbers — all for the price of a few waiver wire pickups. In 2008, my top two picks averaged DT6-type numbers. (Note: To calculate fantasy points, I use this scoring system.)
Unlike Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC), which is for those owners who prefer low maintenance teams, DTBWW strategy allows fantasy owners to virtually ignore DTs on draft day and focus on picking up an extra RB/WR flier instead.
To be eligible, defenses have to be available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Let’s see how my Week 4 picks fared:
#1 Falcons: 14 PA (4) + 1 SK + 2 INT + 1 FR = 8 fantasy points
#2 Chargers: 10 PA (6) + 9 SK + 2 INT + 1 INT TD + 1 FR = 24 fp
#3 Colts: 31 PA = zero fp
Well, it was something of a mixed back this week with one solid performance (ATL), one monster performance (SD) and one dreadful performance (IND). At least the Colts weren’t the top pick. They really laid an egg in Jacksonville.
For the season, my top pick is averaging 7.5 ffpg, my second pic is averaging 11.8 and my third pick is averaging 6.3. On the whole, DTBWW is averaging 8.5 ffpg, which equates to DT8 numbers. I’d like to do better, but that’s not bad.
Let’s take a look at my Week 5 picks, keeping in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense has to be available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues.
I’d take the Bears (@ CAR) and 49ers (vs. Vick-less PHI) over the teams below, but they are owned in about 60% of ESPN leagues, so they’re not eligible. The Bengals at home versus the Bucs also looks like a nice play.
Pick #1: San Diego Chargers (@ OAK)
After a rough outing against the Chiefs, the Chargers DT has looked pretty good against the Jaguars, Seahawks and Cardinals the last three weeks. Meanwhile, opposing DTs have scored an average of 8.3 fantasy points against the Raiders, so this looks like a good matchup.
Pick #1a: Carolina Panthers (vs. CHI)
I originally wrote this when it looked like Jay Cutler was going to play, but now that he’s been ruled out, I really like the Panthers at home against Todd Collins.
Pick #2: St. Louis Rams (@ DET)
The Rams DT is currently the #10 fantasy defense, and the good times should continue in Detroit. The Lions have given up an average of 8.8 fp to opposing defenses over the first four games.
Pick #3: Atlanta Falcons (@ CLE)
The Falcons have averaged 7.5 fantasy points on the season and the Browns have historically been a good matchup for opposing defenses (though they’ve been respectable thus far this season).
Bonus picks: IND (vs. KC), BUF (vs. JAX)
