It seems like as soon as the brackets were announced on Sunday, all of the pundits were circling the 5/12 matchup between Temple (A-10 champs) and Cornell (Ivy League champs) as an upset special. Here are two conflicting takes on the game from the Giant Killers blog and Eamonn Brennan at ESPN. First up is the GK blog:

We hate it when our model agrees with the pundits. So, allow us to say this: They’re jumping on our bandwagon, not the other way around. This is the most likely upset in the entire first round. Where do we start? How about from downtown? Cornell’s 88.4 GK rating (second-best in GK history) is in large part due to ridiculous 3-point shooting. Not only do the Big Red lead the country at 43.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc; 3s also account for 39.1 percent of their scoring. That type of high-risk approach signifies most successful GKs.

Temple can battle Cornell in this area because the Owls do have the nation’s second-toughest 3-point field goal defense (28.1 percent). However, the Owls have other problems. They don’t force turnovers (just 18.2 percent of opponents’ possessions, 286th in the country), and they grab offensive rebounds on only 33 percent of missed shots. What does that mean? They let opponents maximize possessions, and with Cornell, those possessions are worth a lot. Add in that Cornell protects the ball (turnover percentage of 18.7) and keeps opponents off the offensive glass (just 30.2 percent), and you have even more reasons to believe in an upset.

Want one more? Cornell outscored its opponents by more than a dozen points per game this season, yet was outscored at the free throw line. That has a strong correlation toward Giant Killing success. The Big Red have everything necessary to leave the Owls asking “Who?”

And now, from Brennan’s “Bracket babble” post:

Since the East’s No. 5/No. 12 matchup was announced, Cornell looked like the most likely candidate for the ever-popular (and logistically sound) 12-over-5 upset, one of which you should be picking in your bracket every season. In fact, this meme has crossed over into consensus. But guess what? Temple is no slouch. In fact, the Owls are pretty blatantly underseeded as a No. 5. Temple has flown as far under the radar as any team from a multi-bid league that won its own conference AND conference tournament possibly could. The Owls are No. 18 overall in Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency rankings, a mark that exists primarily thanks to their third-ranked overall defense, a unit that allows fewer points per possession than any team in the tournament not named Florida State. Temple is the best team in the country at containing shooters; Cornell just so happens to be the best three-point shooting team in the country and the third best in team effective field goal percentage.

All of which means one simple thing: Cornell got jobbed. Everyone loves the Big Red, for good reason. A No. 12 seed is remarkably low for the best Ivy League team we’ve seen in years. But thanks to their matchup, Cornell’s stay in this NCAA tournament should prove awfully short.

As I wrote yesterday, I like Temple in this game because of the Owls’ ability to defend the three-point line. Cornell certainly has a shot to pull out a win, but with an upset this popular, it can pay to go with the favorite, and Temple is better than your average #5 seed.