Steve Smith 1.0 should have a nice 2010

All in all, it was kind of a disappointing year for Steve Smith. In PPR leagues, he finished WR19, and considering he was typically being taken WR5 to WR10 in fantasy drafts, owners didn’t really get what they expected out of him.

But from a QB standpoint, he just couldn’t get any consistency out of Jake Delhomme, who threw just eight TD (versus 18 interceptions) in 11 games, and generally couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. During that span, Smith averaged 4.2 catches for 55 yards and 0.4 TD per game. This was a far cry from his four-year average of 5.9 catches for 87 yards and 0.6 TD per game from 2005 to 2008.

Is Smith slowing down? While he is on the wrong side of 30 — he’ll turn 31 this May — his yards per catch in 2009 (15.1) was his third-highest in the last five years, and looked every bit as quick as he did three years ago. His 130 targets weren’t far off his four-year average (141.5), so he’s still a huge part of the Carolina offense even though the Panthers are more of a running team. Those 130 targets were the 14th-most amongst wide receivers, so barring something unforeseen, Smith should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in 2010.

But what about Matt Moore? Even though he started the final five games of the season, he’s still going to be a question mark for fantasy owners heading into drafts this summer. He averaged 198 yards, 1.6 TD and just 0.2 INT per game over that five-game span. From 2005 to 2008, Delhomme averaged 211 yards, 1.3 TD and 0.8 INT per game, so Moore’s 2009 numbers already compare favorably in terms of Smith getting good play at QB. (If you’re wondering about his competition, the first four games were against defenses ranked in the top 20 in pass yards allowed and he threw seven of his eight TD in those games.)

To gain a better understanding of Moore’s prospects, I asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter to chime in. Here’s what he had to say:

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Matt Moore is his ability to throw the deep ball. He has a knack for putting the right amount of touch on his passes so that his receivers can chase the ball down in stride. He also showed more composure in his five starts than Jake Delhomme showed all season and the sheer fact that he makes better decisions and doesn’t turn the ball over (something Delhomme struggles mightily with) will give his offense more scoring opportunities during games. It was hard not to notice how much confidence Moore gained from one start to the next.

The only question is whether or not John Fox and his coaching staff will take the shackles off so that Moore can fully develop. The Panthers often played things conservatively with their play calling during Moore’s five starts, which included running the ball on third and long in efforts to avoid turnovers. But if he’s allowed more freedom next season, then he’s an intriguing player heading into 2010.

Delhomme had a host of problems, but two of his biggest were his inability to accurately throw the deep ball and his propensity to turn the ball over. Stalter lists deep ball accuracy and decision-making as two of Moore’s strengths. If Carolina can keep the running game going (and there’s no reason to think otherwise), then Moore and Smith should be able to take advantage of matchups on the outside.

I see big things in store for Smith 1.0 in 2010. His value is likely to be somewhat depressed after a relatively disappointing season, especially since he’ll have to get in sync with Moore. But the duo showed good chemistry late in the season (Smith averaged 4.8 catches for 95 yards and 0.8 TD during the four games they played together), so I expect him to be one of those third- or fourth-round WRs who will have a great chance to outplay his draft position.


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