It wasn’t supposed to be like this for the New England Patriots. In the preseason, the general consensus was that the Pats were going to put on an offensive show reminiscent of 2007 this season now that Tom Brady was back under center. But while the offense has been outstanding this season (they are third in the NFL in total offense and second in the AFC in points scored behind the Chargers), the Pats have been far from dominant.

At the root of the issue has been a defense that has been average at best this year. The Pats have the No. 11 overall defense, but the stats don’t paint the full picture. Opponents have been able to move the ball successfully against them this season, mostly notably on the ground where NE is giving up over 110 rushing yards per game.

Compounding New England’s problems is that they haven’t been as clutch as they have been in previous seasons. Brady has had his issues with turnovers, the defense has struggled coming up with a big stop and regardless of whether or not you agree with Belichick’s decision-making this season, the bottom line is that they haven’t worked. The fourth down gaffe against Indianapolis wasn’t the only time Belichick has rolled the dice this season and came up short.

The good thing is that the Patriots have been here before. They have loads of postseason experience and have been a different team at home this season than on the road. The problem (outside of everything else that has already been mentioned) is that they face a confident Ravens team that has already proven it can go toe-to-toe with them in Foxboro, and that they’ll be without their most consistent offensive weapon in Wes Welker, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last Sunday in Houston.

The rule of thumb has always been that you never doubt Belichick and the Patriots when their backs are against the wall. But that line of thinking has changed based on the results of this season. This was once a team that never lost back-to-back games, but in late November they were steamrolled by the Saints in New Orleans and then proceeded to give away a win in Miami the very next week. The Pats just don’t have the same air about them as they did before.

There’s a good chance that the Patriots will win this Sunday in Foxboro. After all, Baltimore has struggled defending the pass this season and there’s no doubt that Belichick will put the ball in the air plenty of times this weekend, with or without Welker. But the Ravens do have an offense that can strike for big plays and find weak links in New England’s defense. Plus, Ray Rice has been outstanding this season and if Baltimore can control this game on the ground, then New England might find itself trailing late in the second half and unable to produce a defensive stop.

Maybe now that they’ve reached the playoffs again, the Patriots will rise to the challenge like they always have. But if the regular season was any indication of how they’ll perform in the postseason, then we might be witnessing the end of the Pats’ dynasty.