A: After two years, according to Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz.

Schatz wrote a column in the Nov. 30 issue of ESPN The Magazine — I know it’s a little dated, but cut me some slack, I’ve been buried beneath Bill Simmons’ 700-page opus — where he outlined how long teams should take to evaluate a young QB. (Note: I’d provide a link, but I can’t find this story anywhere on the net. Sorry.)

These two examples raise a critical question: When is it time to give up on your young QB?

The quick answer is: after two years (unless, of course, the guy has spent that time on the bench). If a QB falters badly in those first two seasons, you can pretty much write off his chances of ever amounting to anything. It may sound harsh, but chew on these names: Kyle Boller, Quincy Carter, Tim Couch, Charlie Frye, Rex Grossman, Joey Harrington, Danny Kanell, Mike McMahon, Akili Smith, Alex Smith, Danny Wuerffel, Spergon Wynn. Not exactly a parade of Hall of Famers, huh? Well, you can put Russell in that group, too.

Of all of those players, only Alex Smith has shown any signs of resurrecting his career.

Schatz and Football Outsiders use their “replacement player” concept (“basically how many yards a player gains compared with what a replacement-level player, that is, a typical second-stringer, would get in the same situation, against the same opponent”) to determine whether or not a QB is struggling.

Schatz addresses Brady Quinn…

Browns coach Eric Mangini apparently decided the Notre Dame product wasn’t NFL quality after six careers starts, even though his numbers were better than those of his replacement, [Derek] Anderson. Quinn’s career stats (94 of 174 for 972 yards, 3 TDs, 5 INTs) actually mimic [Matt] Hasselbeck’s (84 of 172, 1,079 yards, 4 TDs, 5 INTs) and Troy Aikman’s (90 of 179, 1,209 yards, 4 TDs and 12 INTs) in their first seven starts. Good thing Mangini is rethinking his initial assessment.

…and Matt Leinart…

Meanwhile, in Arizona, Matt Leinart is considered a bust, through little fault of his own. He started 11 games in 2006, and while his stats weren’t too hot (56.8 completion percentage, 2,547 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTs), play-by-play analysis pegs him as the victim of a running game that left him facing a perpetual third and long. For all the criticism he weathered , Leinart was a league-average QB, which, before we were all spoiled by the immediate successes of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, was considered pretty darn good for a rook.

Need proof? Look to Vince Young…

His situation differs from Leinart’s only in that Kerry Collins has flopped so badly this year in Tennessee that Young has gotten the second chance Leinart deserves.

Since taking over in Week 8, Young has completed 62% of his passes for an average of 202 yards, 1.3 TD and only 0.4 INT per game. His QB rating this season (92.5) is 12th in the league.


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