The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to pay per-view today with UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun, which features five fights on the main card. Here is a breakdown of each fight and who I expect to win.

Light Heavyweight Championship – Lyoto Machida (15-0) vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3): Machida has quickly emerged as one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world due to his style of fighting. Machida has brought a true karate style to the octagon and made it look like a dominant way of fighting. His last two fights have been impressive victories over Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans to win the UFC title. Machida likes to counter-strike, which works well in this fight as Rua likes to push the pace and be the aggressive fighter. Rua has gotten better with each fight inside the cage, but today’s fight doesn’t bode well for him. Machida has quicker strikes and should be able to pick Rua apart to score a TKO victory in the third round over a gassed Rua.

Heavyweight Bout – Cain Velasquez (6-0) vs. Ben Rothwell (30-6) – The co-headliner features two heavyweight contenders. Velasquez is being groomed to be a threat to Brock Lesnar’s heavyweight title. The Mexican born fighter has used his wrestling background to dominate his opponents and use ground-and-pound striking to quickly end fights. His last fight, a decision win over Cheick Kongo, Velasquez was able to get Kongo to the ground and dictate the pacing of the fight. Velasquez was hit with some big punches in the fight and was tested for the first time, but passed the test. Rothwell was a former IFL heavyweight champion and has faced some tough opponents, but doesn’t have a real marquee win in his lengthy career. Rothwell can win with a big punch, but Velasquez is likely to get this fight to the ground, where he will control Rothwell and earn a decision or TKO victory.

Lightweight Bout – Joe Stevenson (35-10) vs. Spencer Fisher (24-4) – Joe Stevenson is somewhat a gate-keeper in the division, as he has beat some of the best in the division, but not been able to beat the elite fighters to make himself a champion. Fisher is a step below, where he has beaten lower-tier fighters, but never been able to break into main event or even co-headline status. In today’s fight, I expect Stevenson to out-class Fisher as Stevenson is working with Greg Jackson now to evolve his style, while Fisher has always been more-or-less the same fighter. Stevenson will score the takedowns and work his way to a decision win over Fisher.

Lightweight Bout – Gleison Tibau (29-6) vs. Josh Neer (25-8-1) – These two lightweights are examples of guys that are tough and quality fighters, but will likely never contend for the title or make a serious run at it. Tibau is a strong fighter with great jiu jitsu skills but doesn’t have the striking. Neer is a very tough fighter that has skills in every area, but can’t avoid takedowns and doesn’t have the striking skills to compete with the top fighters in this division. In this fight, Tibau will have the size and speed to score takedowns and will not be submitted by Neer, in my opinion. Look for Tibau to get a decision win.
Welterweight Bout – Anthony Johnson (7-2) vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3) – Anthony Johnson is a physical specimen that has all of the athletic skills to be a great fighter, but he is still maturing and evolving his ground game. Yoshida is a well-rounded fighter, but like many others, isn’t at the elite level. A win for Johnson would be the biggest of his career to this point, while Yoshida is looking to get back in the contender mix after getting knocked out cold last December by Josh Koscheck. Yoshida can win this fight if he gets Johnson on his back, but that seems to be the only way he can win. Johnson seems to have the better package and I would expect to see him land a big punch that leads to a TKO finish in the second round.