Here are my top four plays against the spread for Week 5 in the NFL. (Fade at will.)

Steelers (2-2) at Lions (1-3), 1:00PM ET
The Lions are in trouble for a couple reasons, although none bigger than not having rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford (knee injury) run their offense. Stafford is expected to be sidelined for Detroit’s game against the defending champs this weekend, which means Daunte Culpepper will get the start. Even without Troy Polamalu, the Steelers defense should handle everything Culpepper throws their way and generate a turnover or two. This is another big test for Rashard Mendenhall. If he follows up his 165-yard effort against the Chargers last week with a dud against the lowly Lions, then the Steelers’ ground game is right back where it started at the beginning of the season (i.e. in trouble). That said, Ben Roethlisberger should have no issues moving the ball through the air against Detroit’s 25th ranked pass defense. Will this be the game Pittsburgh finally plays all four quarters and step on an opponent’s throat?
Odds: Steelers –10.5.
Prediction: Steelers 34, Lions 14.

Patriots (3-1) at Broncos (4-0), 4:15PM ET
The Broncos aren’t going to move the ball against the Patriots as well as the Ravens did last week, but they should have more than enough weapons in Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno to keep the chains moving and give their defense time to rest. Speaking of Denver’s defense, as long as Elvis Dummervil and company continue to generate pressure, the Broncos should pull off the upset as home dogs this Sunday. The Patriots’ issues are far from solved and Bill Belichick knows his team has to go week-to-week and game-by-game. New England has struggled in Denver over the years, covering the spread just five times in its last 20 visits to the Mile-High City. This will be a great test for the Broncos defense to see where they’re at, and I think they harass Tom Brady just enough to earn a victory.
Odds: Patriots –3.5.
Prediction: Broncos 20, Patriots 17.

Browns (0-4) at Bills (1-3), 1:00PM ET
This has trap written all over it. Why are the Browns 6-point underdogs on the road against a Bills team that played awful against the Dolphins last week? Cleveland showed more fight than Buffalo did in Week 4, so it would stand to reason that the point spread would be a tad lower. Watch for Alex Van Pelt to get Terrell Owens more involved in the passing game this week and use the running back duo of Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson to open things up for Trent Edwards in the passing game. Buffalo is beat up defensively coming into this game, but Derek Anderson always supplies a turnover or two and the Bills won’t have to worry about double teaming Braylon Edwards like Cincinnati did last week since he’s now in New York. One would think that the Browns would keep this game close (if not win it) after finally showing some fire last week, but I bet they suffer another letdown playing in a tough Buffalo environment.
Odds: Bills –6.
Prediction: Bills 24, Browns 16.

Colts (4-0) at Titans (0-4), 8:20PM ET
Things don’t get any easier this week for the winless Titans as they host the undefeated Colts on Sunday night football. Tennessee has struggled stopping the pass this year and converting on third downs, which is a troubling sign with Indy coming to town. Peyton Manning should obliterate a weak Titans’ secondary, which stands little to no chance against Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and the rest of Manning’s receiving weapons. Defensively, Indy matches up well with a Tennessee team that likes to get Chris Johnson involved in the short to intermediate passing game. The Colts are fast and can’t be beat running east and west. If Kerry Collins can’t convert on third downs, it’s going to be a long night for him and one has to wonder if Jeff Fisher won’t go back to Vince Young at some point in order to provide a spark. As long as the Colts don’t turn the ball over or suffer a letdown, Indy should roll in this one.
Odds: Colts –4.
Prediction: Colts 33, Titans 17.