Yesterday, I posted my DTBWW picks for Week 1 and thought I’d spend a little more time discussing the subject. I’ve used DTBWW quite a bit in the past, and it’s not always by design. Sometimes a defense that I’m counting on doesn’t perform up to snuff, so I need to look elsewhere for production. The idea is that every week, there is usually one or two mediocre or solid defenses on your league’s waiver wire that have a favorable matchup. A mediocre defense with a great matchup is just as good as having a great defense with a medicore matchup.
Last season, my top weekly DTBWW pick averaged 9.8 points per week, which over the course of the season equates to DT2 or DT3 numbers. My second pick averaged 6.1 points, which obviously isn’t as good, but still solid. The top two picks averaged 7.9 points, or DT6-type numbers. (If you’re wondering what scoring system I’m using, it’s the Antsports High Performance scoring system that awards one point per sack, fumble and interception, two points per safety and six points per defensive/special teams touchdown.)
The best way to pick a DTBWW candidate is to look for medicore/solid defenses that are facing bad offenses that allow a lot of sacks. Total sacks is the most consistent defensive scoring category week-to-week and it’s also a good indicator of quarterback pressure, which can lead to turnovers and touchdowns. It also helps to pick defenses that are playing at home, as most DTs play better at home than they do on the road.
One great thing about DTBWW is that it’s very fluid and flexible. If a particular defense is playing really well or if a particular offense is really struggling to protect the QB, it’s easy to utilize those teams with this approach. But most owners like a game plan, so to that end, I have put together a loose DTBWW schedule for the 2009-10 season.
To do so, I picked five teams that consistently struggle to protect the quarterback: the 49ers, Lions, Bengals, Rams and Raiders. Last season, defenses ranked outside of the top 12 scored an average of 8.6 points per game against these five teams, who were all in the top 10 in total sacks allowed. That production equates to 146 points over the course of a 17-game season, which would translate to DT5-type production.
The following table shows the 2009-10 schedule for these five teams.
Remember, we’re looking for medicore or solid defenses playing at home. I eliminated the top 10 (drafted) defenses because it’s not likely that they’ll be available on your league’s waiver wire. (If they are, go ahead and use them as part of your DTBWW.) I indicated the ideal matchups in green and good matchups in blue. As you can see, there are ideal matchups available in 10 of the first 16 weeks, and in the other six weeks, there are an average of two good matchups available for use in the DTBWW.
So as the season wears on, fantasy owners can use this table as a guide. But remember, it’s important to be flexible. If Carson Palmer comes back strong and the Bengals start scoring 25+ points a game, you may want to stop using Cincinnati in your DTBWW. Conversely, if a team like the Chiefs really starts to struggle offensively, you may want to add them to the list of teams that you’re considering on a weekly basis.
