John Hollinger writes that the uptick in free throws this postseason is nothing new.
This phenomenon has gone on since prehistoric times as clubs enforce the no-layups policy with greater zeal, and garbage-time situations become fewer and farther between. These playoffs’ free-throw rates have increased over the regular-season rates similar to past seasons’ rates, even though high-foul teams are overrepresented this time around.
Denver led the NBA in free-throw attempts per field goal attempt this season by a wide margin.
Orlando averaged .351, good for third in the league, with center Dwight Howard leading the league in free-throw attempts.
Sum it up, and that’s six conference finals games with an above-average number of fouls, but we also have a far greater sampling of 67 games from the first two rounds of the playoffs. And in those two rounds, we had no deviation from the historic trend whatsoever. The only noteworthy development is a phenomenal increase in the frequency of technical fouls, with 1½ being called a game in this postseason, compared to less than one per night just here years ago.
But as far as live-ball action goes, the evidence for the “refs gone wild” theory is skimpy at best. Basically, we’re getting all bent out of shape over a six-game sample when a sample of 10 times as many games shows the opposite conclusion.
The bottom line is that teams and players don’t care if the refs call it close or loose, they just want consistency throughout the game. Officials can’t “let guys play” in the first quarter and then start calling ticky-tack fouls late in the game. The players adjust based on how the game is being called early on, but if that changes throughout the course of the game, all hell breaks loose.
