I’ve been beating this drum on our weekly fantasy football podcasts, but Michael Turner doesn’t run well against teams with good (or even mediocre) run defenses. That may seem intuitive, but he really doesn’t run well against good run defenses. Take a look at his first eight games. (The opposing team’s rank in average rush yards per game is in parenthesis.)
Week 1 – DET (31st): 220 yards, 2 TD
Week 2 – TB (13th): 42 yards
Week 3 – KC (32nd): 104 yards, 3 TD
Week 4 – CAR (14th): 56 yards
Week 5 – GB (27th): 121 yards, TD
Week 6 – CHI (6th): 54 yards
Week 8 – PHI (8th): 58 yards
Week 9 – OAK (30th): 139 yards
So against the Lions, Chiefs, Packers and Raiders (average rank: 30th), Turner posted an average of 146 yards rushing (5.7 ypc) and 1.5 TD. Against the Bucs, Panthers, Bears and Eagles (average rank: 10th), he rushed for an average of 53 yards (2.8 ypc) and zero TD. (Home versus away doesn’t seem to be much of a factor because he has had big games on the road – GB and OAK – as well as at home.)
What does this mean going forward? Well, here is Turner’s upcoming schedule:
Week 10 – NO (18th)
Week 11 – DEN (26th)
Week 12 – CAR (14th)
Week 13 – @ SD (16th)
Week 14 – @ NO (18th)
Week 15 – TB (13th)
Week 16 – @ MIN (2nd)
Week 17 – STL (29th)
Turner has a great matchup in Week 11 against the Broncos, but that enticing matchup against the Rams in Week 17 doesn’t really help most fantasy owners since the playoffs generally wrap up in Week 16. The Panthers and Bucs have already proven they can shut him down, while the Minnesota matchup in Week 16 is especially worrisome assuming the Vikings don’t lose their stud defensive tackles to suspension. That leaves two games against the Saints and one game against the Chargers, two teams that are mediocre against the run. And Turner hasn’t done particularly well against mediocre run defenses.
I just traded Turner away in one league because I’m not optimistic about his chances over the second half of the season. I packaged him with Larry Fitzgerald and Kellen Winslow for Marion Barber (whom I believe will get back on track once Tony Romo is back under center), Donald Driver and Antonio Gates. I feel like I’m getting an upgrade at RB and TE for a downgrade at WR. Since I also have Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson at wideout, I feel like I can afford to lose Fitzgerald.
Depending on your league’s trade deadline, you may want to think about selling high on Turner as well. He might post good numbers this week against the Saints and he’ll probably run wild against the Broncos in Week 11, so I think he’ll have his highest value after that game. Of course, that won’t help you if your trade deadline is before then.
