As NFL teams gear up for training camp across the country, so do those NFL enthusiasts ready to make annual claims like, “this team is ready to take the next step” or “that team won’t be as good because of such-and-such.”
It happens every year – football fans and pundits jump on a preseason story and ride it until the wheels come off. But how many times do these preseason stories fizzle once the regular season start? I don’t have hard facts, but probably more often than not.
Below are five NFL headlines (or statements if you will) that have the potential to become way too overblown before the regular season kicks off in early September.
1. “The Minnesota Vikings are this year’s sleeper team.”
What’s ironic about the annual sleeper team is that they’re often everyone’s sleeper team, thus making it impossible for them to actually be a sleeper team. Meet the Minnesota Vikings: The 2008 Sleeper Team of the Year. What’s not to like about the Vikings? They’re solid up front on both sides of the ball (the offseason addition of defensive end Jared Allen was spectacular), have one of the premier backs in football in Adrian Peterson, and finally added a deep threat to the passing game with the acquisition of receiver Bernard Berrian. Two problems: 1) Tarvaris Jackson doesn’t have to prove he can carry a team – he just can’t derail its progress when things are going well, and 2) The secondary still has major question marks. The Vikings have been singing Jackson’s development praises all winter, but let’s wait and see how he does on the field when the games actually count. And adding free safety Madieu Williams to the secondary (which ranked dead last in pass YPG last year) was definitely an upgrade, but he won’t turn this group into world-beaters overnight. It’s true, a good pass rush will mask a weak defensive backfield, but Minny’s secondary will have to dramatically improve before we can anoint the Vikings as NFC Champions.
2. “The Packers will take a step back without Brett Favre.”
The Brett Favre drama hour will likely continue throughout the preseason, so hopefully everybody is wearing their seatbelts. But let’s just assume for a second that Favre has played his last game in Green Bay. (By the way, that sound you hear is 100,000 Packer fans clicking over to another website.) Aaron Rodgers might not be a better option than Favre in 2008, but you know what? He might very well be. And the fact of the matter is that the Packers have a more than capable offensive line, an emerging running back in Ryan Grant, a solid group of receivers, and a damn good defense. The Packers are deep, built to win now and if Rodgers’ performance in Dallas last season was any indication of his progress, he’ll keep this team competitive. The Packers were more than just Brett Favre last year.
3. “The Jaguars will overtake the Colts in the AFC South.”
Let me state for the record that I really, really, really like the Jacksonville Jaguars’ chances to make some noise in the AFC this year. You can even say I love the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars. Hell, I would like to make sweet love to the 2008 Jacksonville Jaguars. And considering Peyton Manning is dealing with an inflamed bursa sac (I don’t even know what that is, but the thought of it just made me throw up in my mouth a little bit) that could potentially cause the Colts to get off to a slow start, you should want to make sweet love to the Jaguars, too. But taking the AFC South crown from the Indianapolis Colts is proving to be tougher than getting the truth out of Roger Clemens. Indy has won the AFC South every year since the divisions merged in 2002. They still have the better overall talent and one of the best players in the league in Manning (nasty-ass inflamed bursa sac or not). The Jaguars are close – damn close – to winning the AFC South. But given the history of the division and how good the Colts still are, the Jags might once again have to settle for a Wild Card spot.
4. “The Saints now have a top-tier defense.”
Every year a team adds a couple of pieces to one side of the football and all of a sudden they’re the 1985 Chicago Bear defense or the 2000 St. Louis Ram offense. The Saints did a great job in the offseason to improve their defense with the additions of LB Jonathan Vilma, CB Randall Gay and rookie DT Sedrick Ellis. But assuming a unit that finished last year ranked 26th in total defense will automatically become a top 10 unit is a risky proposition. New Orleans thought they had the corner spot opposite Mike McKenzie sewn up last year with the addition of Jason David, but he quickly proved that he wasn’t the answer. Can Gay survive outside of Bill Belichick’s scheme? Will Vilma stay healthy? What if Charles Grant (neck wound) isn’t ready to go by the opener? Will Josh Savage and/or Bobby McCray be enough depth at the defensive end spot? Last year the 49ers added CB Nate Clements, S Michael Lewis and LB Tully Banta-Cain to their defense and everyone assumed San Fran had turned the corner. The unit finished 25th in total defense, a far cry from their offseason expectations. So let’s not jump to the same conclusions this year with the Saints’ D.
5. “If the Panthers don’t win this year, John Fox might be shown the door.”
Please. I’ve heard this damn line every year since 2005 and yet every year Fox still walks the sidelines in Carolina, chewing his gum like a horse mowing on a barrel of hay. (Seriously, has anyone actually watched this guy chew gum? Holy jawbreaker, Batman.) Owner Jerry Richardson has modeled his organization off of what Andy Rooney has done in Pittsburgh and he favors long tenures for his head coaches. Fox is a damn good coach. He’s not great, but good. As long as he keeps his teams sniffing competitive play, he’s not going anywhere. The only stipulation to this overblown storyline, however, is that Richardson might be tempted to make a phone call to Bill Cowher if the Panthers miss the playoffs once again.
