This is the third of five installments of my position-by-position rankings, where I consider the four major factors that affect a player’s total value: talent (statistical performance), contract, age and potential. To see a more detailed explanation of my approach, give my point guard rankings a gander. I have also completed the first edition of my shooting guard rankings.
To summarize a player’s stats, I’ll use the NBA Efficiency statistic, which is defined as:
EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))
Essentially, the order of this list depends on the answer to the question – would you trade Player X for Player Y, assuming the goal is to win a title in the next three seasons, while also building a strong franchise for years to come?
On with the rankings…
1. LeBron James, Cavaliers
Age: 23
EPG: 30.6
Contract: three years, $47.3 M ($15.8 M per)
What’s there to say about LeBron that hasn’t already been said? He’s only 23 and is, at worst, the second-best wing in the NBA. He has some things to work on (i.e. post game, consistent shooting), but the sky is the limit.
2. Kevin Durant, Sonics
Age: 19
EPG: 15.2
Contract: four years, $23.3 M ($5.9 M per)
ROY probably should have gone to Al Horford, but Durant won it and his game is dripping with potential. I don’t think the Sonics would trade Durant away for anyone on this list but LeBron.
3. Rudy Gay, Grizzlies
Age: 21
EPG: 18.5
Contract: three years, $10.3 M ($3.4 M per)
Gay broke out in a big way, averaging 20/6 in his sophomore season. He’s young and talented, and will be the cornerstone to Memphis’ rebuilding effort.
4. Caron Butler, Wizards
Age: 28
EPG: 22.7
Contract: three years, $29.4 M ($9.8 M per)
He is five years older than ‘Melo, but wouldn’t you rather have Butler for the next 3-5 years and spend the extra money elsewhere? I know I would. Butler isn’t quite the offensive juggernaut, but he’s a better defender and passer.
5. Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets
Age: 23
EPG: 23.9
Contract: four years, $65.8 M ($16.5 M per)
‘Melo is one of the best scorers in the league, and though building around him in Denver has worked in the regular season, the Nuggets have had little playoff success. People have questioned his defense, which makes one wonder if he’s a max-contract, franchise-type player.
6. Paul Pierce, Celtics
Age: 30
EPG: 20.1
Contract: three years, $59.4 M ($19.8 M per)
The Truth has raised his game this season and is finally getting results on the defensive end. He is a crafty scorer and has the rare ability to take games over.
7. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats
Age: 25
EPG: 19.1
Contract: five years, $49.4 M ($9.9 M per)
The Bobcats locked the do-it-all Wallace to an affordable contract. He doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well, but the rest of his game is terrific. Would you rather have Wallace or Marion given their respective ages and contracts?
8. Shawn Marion, Heat
Age: 30
EPG: 23.0
Contract: one year, $17.2 M
The Matrix is expensive, but he brings a lot to the table. He stuffs the stat sheet, but has trouble creating his own shot, so he’s better equipped to be a second or third option.
9. Tayshaun Prince, Pistons
Age: 28
EPG: 14.3
Contract: three years, $30.9 M ($10.3 M per)
Prince quietly goes about his business. He’s a top-notch defender, a pretty good shooter, a solid passer and he has a developing post game.
10. Danny Granger, Pacers
Age: 25
EPG: 18.5
Contract: two years, $5.6 M ($2.8 M per)
One look at Granger’s numbers – 19.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 40.4% 3PT% and 85.2% FT% – reveals one of the league’s most underrated small forwards. He’s also the Pacers primary wing defender.
11. Josh Howard, Mavericks
Age: 28
EPG: 19.0
Contract: three years, $31.7 M ($10.6 M per)
Howard saw his stock fall with a woeful postseason punctuated by some bonehead comments about his offseason marijuana use. Still, his contract is reasonable and he’s in the prime of his career.
12. Luol Deng, Bulls
Age: 23
EPG: 16.7
Contract: restricted free agent
The Bulls had a down year, but Deng’s numbers stayed pretty steady. He still has a ton of upside, but it’s difficult to gauge his total value until he signs a long-term contract. He’s looking to sign for big money, which is why he is this low on this list.
13. Hedo Turkoglu, Magic
Age: 29
EPG: 19.5
Contract: one year, $6.9 M
This year’s Most Improved Player had a breakout season at the age of 29. He’s a dynamic scorer who can shoot it from deep and drive to the hole. He’ll be looking for a big raise after next season, but will be on the wrong side of 30.
14. Ron Artest, Kings
Age: 28
EPG: 19.4
Contract: one year, $8.5 M (may opt-out)
Sure, he’s a little crazy, but he’s been a pretty good citizen in Sacramento and people around the league have noticed. He’s terrific defender and rebounder and can score pretty well.
15. Richard Jefferson, Nets
Age: 27
EPG: 18.2
Contract: three years, $42.4 M ($14.1 M per)
Jefferson has a nice all-around game, but his contract is a bit pricey. He’s athletic and can shoot it, but there are other guys that give you similar game for less money.
16. Corey Maggette, Clippers
Age: 28
EPG: 19.4
Contract: free agent
Finally free of the Clippers, Maggette is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. He’ll be looking for a starting gig and a salary starting at least $10 million per season, but whoever signs him will get a dynamic scorer who is one of the best in the league at getting to the line.
17. Rashard Lewis, Magic
Age: 28
EPG: 17.9
Contract: five years, $102.6 M ($20.5 M per)
Lewis is a nice player who can shoot the ball from long range and has an improving midrange game. However, the Magic overspent last summer and that monster contract really hurts his overall value.
18. Josh Childress, Hawks
Age: 24
EPG: 14.5
Contract: restricted free agent
Childress shot over 57% from the field this season and has been one of the league’s most effective players in his short four-year career. He doesn’t get much national exposure, so the Hawks should be able to re-sign him for less than his true value.
19. Marvin Williams, Hawks
Age: 21
EPG: 15.1
Contract: two years, $13.0 M ($6.5 M per)
Lost in all “the Hawks should have taken Chris Paul” talk is that Williams is developing into a pretty good player. He has a solid all-around game although he isn’t a threat from long range.
20. Shane Battier, Rockets
Age: 29
EPG: 12.8
Contract: three years, $20.7 M per ($6.9 M per)
It’s difficult to quantify Battier’s true worth because he does all the little things. He covers the opponent’s best wing, boxes out, dives for loose balls, helps on defense and is a good three-point shooter.
21. Thaddeus Young, Sixers
Age: 19
EPG: 9.9
Contract: four years, $11.0 M ($2.8 M per)
It’s a good sign that the young Young (sorry, couldn’t resist) got a lot better as the season wore on. He averaged 10.8 points and 4.8 boards for the surging Sixers after the All-Star break, while his FG% (55.7%) and 3PT% (36.4%) give a glimpse of great things to come.
22. Julian Wright, Hornets
Age: 21
EPG: 4.8
Contract: four years, $10.7 M ($2.7 M per)
The main knock on Wright coming out of college was his jumper, but the rookie knocked down 41.7% of his three-point attempts this season. He didn’t crack the rotation until March, and still struggled at times, but his solid play in the postseason is encouraging. He’s a great athlete and has long arms, so he has the tools to become a very good defender.
23. Travis Outlaw, Blazers
Age: 23
EPG: 11.7
Contract: two years, $8.0 M ($4.0 M per)
This was a breakout season for Outlaw, who averaged 13.3 points off the Portland bench. Why he’s playing behind Martell Webster is a mystery, as Outlaw is better in virtually every part of the game.
24. Al Thornton, Clippers
Age: 24
EPG: 10.8
Contract: four years, $10.4 M ($2.6 M per)
At 24, Thornton is quite old for a rookie, which is why Wright and Young are ahead of him on this list. Still, he’s a good scorer who averaged 16.0 points and 5.7 rebounds after the All-Star break.
25. Mike Dunleavy, Pacers
Age: 27
EPG: 18.5
Contract: three years, $29.4 M ($9.8 M per)
Even though he was playing out of position (at shooting guard) much of the season, Dunleavy looked pretty comfortable in his first full season with the Pacers. He set career highs in points, assists, FG%, 3PT% and FT%, and finally started to earn that big contract.
26. Andres Nocioni, Bulls
Age: 28
EPG: 11.0
Contract: four years, $29.0 M ($7.3 M per)
Nocioni is a hard-working, tough-minded player who continues to play behind Luol Deng in Chicago. His contract is reasonable given what he brings to a team, though he needs more run to justify his salary.
27. Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz
Age: 27
EPG: 16.0
Contract: three years, $49.4 M (16.5 M per)
AK-47 is a tough guy to gauge, because his role on the Jazz is to defend, block shots and rebound. For what he does, his salary is completely out of whack. I think Utah would rather have Dunleavy and Nocioni at their respective salaries.
28. Dorrell Wright, Heat
Age: 22
EPG: 11.4
Contract: restricted free agent
Though he missed much of the season with a knee injury, Wright showed promise in his fourth season, setting career highs in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and FG%. He has all the physical tools to be a very good small forward, though his time may be limited by the arrival of Shawn Marion.
29. Jamario Moon, Raptors
Age: 27
EPG: 13.7
Contract: one year, $0.7 M
After stints in the CBA, USBL, the Mexican League and with the Globetrotters, Moon finally landed a deal with the Raptors and made the most of it. He’s an energy guy who stuffs the stat sheet.
30. Ryan Gomes, Timberwolves
Age: 25
EPG: 13.5
Contract: free agent
Gomes is a tweener combo forward who has started 134 games the last two seasons for the Celtics and T-Wolves. He’s a solid shooter who has averaged around 12 points and five boards over the last two seasons. Time will tell if he’s capable of more.
Youngsters with upside: Francisco Garcia, Kings; Shawne Williams, Pacers; Matt Barnes, Warriors; Leon Powe, Celtics; Trevor Ariza, Lakers; Corey Brewer, Timberwolves; Jarvis Hayes, Pistons; Jared Dudley, Bobcats; Wilson Chandler, Knicks; Antoine Wright, Mavericks; Gerald Green, Timberwolves; Carlos Delfino, Raptors
Vets on the decline: Kyle Korver, Jazz; Peja Stojakovic, Hornets; Bruce Bowen, Spurs; Grant Hill, Suns; James Posey, Celtics; Eduardo Najera, Nuggets; Desmond Mason, Bucks; Matt Harpring, Jazz; Luke Walton, Lakers; James Jones, Blazers; Bobby Simmons, Bucks; Vladimir Radmanovic, Lakers; Wally Szczerbiak, Cavaliers; Bostjan Nachbar, Nets; Jason Kapono, Raptors; Ime Udoka, Spurs