Like most NBA fans, I was rooting for the Hornets in their series against the Spurs. It’s not because I hate San Antonio; I’m just sick and tired of watching them play. But the Spurs prevailed and now they face my least favorite team, the Lakers. As much as I like to root against both of these franchises, this is an excellent matchup.
Kobe has the unenviable task of having to guard Manu Ginobili on one end and while being guarded by Bruce Bowen on the other. But he’s the MVP, right? Everyone keeps telling me that he’s the hardest working player in the NBA, so he should be able to handle those responsibilities.
Down low, Pau Gasol will have to defend Tim Duncan in the post. Gasol has trouble defensively, but his long arms could bother Duncan if the Big Fundamental’s face up game isn’t flowing. Duncan is a lot stronger, so he’d be wise to mix some power moves in to keep Gasol on his heels. Gasol also has trouble scoring on Duncan, but if he can come close to holding his own in the post, the Lakers have a good shot.
Back on the perimeter, it’s speed versus strength in the Tony Parker/Derek Fisher matchup. If Fisher can’t keep Parker out of the paint, it’s going to be a long series for the Lakers. Parker’s jumper is improving, but it’s still inconsistent. If he gets on a roll from the outside, there will be no way for Fisher to guard him.
Lamar Odom is quick for a power forward and I don’t think Fabricio Oberto or Kurt Thomas can hold him on the perimeter. Neither player is good enough offensively to demand a lot of playing time, so I expect Robert Horry will see significant minutes in this series. It’ll be his responsibility to keep Odom out of the paint and off the glass.
This series might come down to bench play. The Lakers have a young, up-and-coming group of reserves, while the Spurs are grizzled and experienced. The Lakers’ bench wasn’t very good in the Utah series, so it will be interesting to see how they play now that a trip to the Finals is on the line. Phil Jackson seems to go with the hot hand when choosing the fifth guy to finish games. One game it’s Luke Walton, the next it’s Sasha Vujacic. Whoever it is, they will have to play mistake-free ball, because no one on the Spurs is going to fold under pressure. They’ve all been there (too) many times before.
The Lakers have home court advantage, which makes them a pretty solid favorite in the series. But I think the Spurs match up well, so I’m going to go out on a little bit of a limb and say that San Antonio wins this series in six games.
