During the regular season, Utah and L.A. were 2/3 in offensive efficiency (after Phoenix), which means that the Jazz and the Lakers were both in the top three in points per possession. This is no surprise considering that these two teams are coached by two of the best in the league, Phil Jackson and Jerry Sloan. Jackson runs the infamous Triangle Offense, while Sloan utilizes UCLA cuts (an upscreen from the post for the point guard) and even the ol’ Flex cut in his offensive attack. Both teams are extremely good at hitting the open man as evidenced by their appearance in the top four in league-wide assists per possession.
This series provides some especially interesting matchups. Kobe Bryant causes huge headaches for opposing coaches, but the Jazz have two athletic, rangy defenders in Ronnie Brewer and Andrei Kirilenko to throw at him. I suspect they’ll start the game with Brewer watching Bryant and then Kirilenko will take over when Kyle Korver is inserted into the game. Neither player has been particularly effective in limiting Bryant, who has averaged 29.8 points and shot over 56% from the field in the four head-to-head meetings with the Jazz this season.
Utah also has to be concerned about Pau Gasol. The Jazz don’t really have the length to deal with him on the block, so they’ll have to try to muscle him out of the lane whenever they can. Mehmet Okur will probably be given the responsibility of covering Gasol, as the Jazz will need Carlos Boozer to keep Lamar Odom off of the offensive glass.
On the flip side, expect Derek Fisher to cover his old teammate Deron Williams. Utah has a big advantage at point guard and it’s up to Williams to carry his team. It will be interesting to see how much Boozer is bothered by Odom’s length defensively, or if the Lakers elect to put Gasol on Boozer and Odom on the more perimeter-oriented Okur.
The Lakers are a little bit better defensively, and with home court advantage, they’re a 3 to 1 favorite to win the series. I like the “Lakers in 7,” but my heart is with the Jazz. Also, if I were a betting man, those 3 to 1 odds for Utah look awfully good for a team that has the best home record in the league. All Utah has to do is win one game in L.A., where the Lakers have been vulnerable (30-11) this season and then defend home court. But against a team like the Lakers, that’s easier said than done.
