With the regular season wrapping up Wednesday night, it’s now time to turn our attention to the playoffs, which have the potential to be the best in years. Obviously, the focus is on the West, where eight 50+ win teams are separated by just seven games in the standings. This means that there are no free passes into the second round; every first round series in the West has potential to be a good one (and an upset).
“The survivor of the brutal West will have another tough test in the Finals. The resurgent Celtics (66-16) and the steady Pistons (59-23) have the two best records in the league. How much the weak schedule in the East exaggerates these records isn’t clear, though the Celtics are a league-best 14-6 against the top 10 teams in the league. So if Kevin Garnett and Co. survive, we could be in for a very compelling Finals.
At the beginning of the season, I picked the Suns over the Celtics in the Finals, but with Pau Gasol, Jason Kidd and Shaquille O’Neal being added to contenders in the West, the landscape has changed a bit. The Celtics are looking good, and while the Suns are coming on, they have a tough road with a first round matchup against the Spurs, and potential matchups with the Hornets/Mavs and the Lakers down the road.
Since the West is so stacked, I’ll start there by previewing each series. As the playoffs progress, be sure to check back to see series-by-series previews as they develop.
THE WEST
#1 LA Lakers (57-25) vs. #8 Denver Nuggets (50-32)
Season series: Lakers, 3-0
“The Lakers clinched home court throughout the Western Conference playoffs, but since they own the West’s best road record, it isn’t that big of a deal. The larger question is the health of Andrew Bynum. After a discouraging visit with a knee specialist in New York, he may still be weeks away. With a healthy Bynum, the Lakers are the favorites to emerge from the West, but without him, they may have trouble defending the likes of Tim Duncan or Shaq in the middle. The Nuggets have the talent to upset the Kobe and the Lakers, but with ‘Melo’s alleged DUI hanging over their heads, one wonders if the team is focused enough to pull the upset. The Lakers have dominated the season series, so I see no reason to pick the Nuggets in this one.
My pick: Lakers
#4 Utah (54-28) vs. #5 Houston (55-27)
Season series: Jazz, 2-1
The Jazz won the Northwest, but since the Rockets finished ahead of them in the standings, Utah doesn’t have home court advantage in the first round. This is vitally important for the Jazz, who are 37-4 at home and just 17-24 on the road. Even though the Rockets went on that historic 22-game winning streak, they are just 9-7 since, so the loss of Yao Ming may finally be catching up to them. T-Mac has never advanced past the first round of the playoffs and the Rockets are beatable in Houston, so I think the Jazz steal a game there and close it out in Game 6.
My pick: Jazz
#2 New Orleans (56-26) vs. #7 Dallas (51-31)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
This is one of the most compelling matchups in the first round. On one hand, you have the surprising Hornets, who elevated themselves to the #2 seed in the West when all the pundits thought they’d be fighting for a playoff spot. On the other, you have the (equally) surprising Mavs, who have struggled this season before and after the Jason Kidd trade. After an inauspicious 4-5 start with Dallas, Kidd is now 12-8 with his new team – 10-6 in games in which Dirk Nowitzki played – so it’s not clear if the trade made Dallas any better. Kidd’s matchup with Chris Paul should be terrific, but it will probably come down to the play of Nowitzki, who has struggled – 17.3 ppg and 37% shooting – in four games against the Hornets. I’m going with the chalk, but the Mavs are a live dog. I think this one will go the full seven games.
My pick: Hornets
#3 San Antonio (56-26) vs. #6 Phoenix (55-27)
Season series: Suns, 3-1
The Spurs and Suns would be a good matchup in the Western Conference Finals, so this is the most compelling first-round series. The Suns are 18-11 with Shaq in the lineup (15-5 over their last 20 games), and this series will determine if Phoenix made the right move in trading for him. If the Suns lose, everyone will wonder if they would have been better off with Shawn Marion on the roster. After all, if it weren’t for a couple of bench-clearing suspensions in last year’s playoffs, the Suns probably would have upended the Spurs in the semis. San Antonio has home court advantage, but the Suns won the season series and are 2-0 against the Spurs with Shaq in the lineup. In those two games, Tim Duncan has shot a combined 38% from the field, so it seems like he’s a little bothered by Shaq’s presence. It’s tough to bet against the defending champs in the first round (especially with Manu Ginobili playing so well), but since I picked the Suns to win it all at the beginning of the season, I can’t very well pick them to lose this early.
My pick: Suns
THE EAST
#1 Boston (66-16) vs. #8 Atlanta (37-45)
Season series: Celtics, 3-0
The Celtics have the league’s best record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. With three hungry stars – KG, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen – and a group of quality role players, they are primed for a run to the Finals. Kudos to the Hawks for breaking a long playoff drought, but I don’t think they’ll take more than a game off the C’s, if that.
My pick: Celtics
#4 Cleveland (45-37) vs. #5 Washington (43-39)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
“The Cavs are 14-13 since the trades that brought Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West to Cleveland, so it’s fair to say that things aren’t going swimmingly. Szczerbiak is shooting just 36% since the trade and has seen his playing time cut dramatically as a result. Wallace’s minutes and rebounds are down as well. The only real bright spot from the trade is the play of West, who has come on late in the season. Meanwhile, the Wizards have Gilbert Arenas back, but he has missed some time with a sore knee, so there’s no telling just how healthy he is. Two years ago, these teams had a very entertaining first-round series that went six games and featured three one-point wins by the Cavs. Agent Zero ruffled some feathers when he announced that he and the Wizards wanted the Cavs in the first round and DeShawn Stevenson called LeBron “overrated” earlier in the year. Despite the Cavs’ considerable woes, I think James will be on a mission and will do everything in his power to eliminate the Wizards from the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year.
My pick: Cavs
#2 Detroit (59-23) vs. #7 Philadelphia (40-42)
Season series: Tied, 2-2
This is one of those matchups that seems easy to pick on paper, but a closer look reveals more. The Sixers were floundering at 16-28 in late January, but turned it around to go 24-14 over the last three months of the season. Philly is getting terrific play from its perimeter players, anchored by Andre Iguodala and the 32 year-old Andre Miller, who is averaging 17.9 points and 7.4 assists since the All-Star break. An improving frontline features lots of double-doubles from Samuel Dalembert, while rookie Thaddeus Young is averaging 11 points and five boards since the All-Star break. As for the Pistons, they’re still the same ol’ bunch, but they’re getting some punch from youngsters Jason Maxiell (10.8 points, 6.6 boards in April) and Rodney Stuckey (14.0 points, 4.2 assists in April) off the bench. I don’t think the Sixers have the juice to upend the Pistons, but they could push this series to six games.
My pick: Pistons
#3 Orlando (52-30) vs. #6 Toronto (41-41)
Season series: Magic, 2-1
“Orlando is all about its three-headed monster of Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis and (my MIP pick) Hedo Turkoglu. Combined, the trio scores 56% of the team’s points and gathers 60% of its rebounds. Stan Van Gundy has squeezed as much defensive juice out of the Magic as he could, which has led to Orlando’s first 50+ win season since the Shaq era. Meanwhile, the Raptors have taken a step backward this season. They will rely on Chris Bosh and a group of players that know their role. In T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon, the Raptors have an advantage at point guard, but the Magic are better at just about every other roster position. With the Raptors up-tempo attack and D-Ho’s considerable ability, this matchup has a chance to be the most entertaining first round series in the East.
My pick: Magic
