The Warriors got off to a great start in the first quarter, but as soon as the Nuggets switched to a zone, the momentum shifted and Denver coasted to a 114-105 win in Oakland. The win gives Denver a full game lead on the Warriors, but the Nuggets also own the head-to-head tiebraker, so they essentially have a two game lead with three games to play.
As I was reading up on the game today, I ran across a ton of commentary about how bad these two teams are defensively. It got me wondering, just how bad are they? Well, it’s true that these two teams allow the most points in the league, but they also play at a very high pace, so there are more possessions, which means their opponents have more chances to score. It’s not really fair to judge their defense without taking into account their pace, is it?
John Hollinger is ESPN’s numbers guy, and he keeps track of pace as well as offensive and defensive efficiency. The results are interesting. Unsurprisingly, Denver and Golden State are 1/2 in pace. The Nuggets play an average of 102.1 possessions per game while the Warriors play 101.2. Hollinger’s defensive efficiency number is simply the number of points a team allows divided by 100 possessions. Denver and Golden State are terrible, right? Wrong. While the Warriors are just on the edge of the bottom third (#20) the Nuggets finish a respectable 10th.
That means that possession for possession, the Nuggets do a fairly good job of playing defense. This conclusion is backed up by the fact that they are in the middle of the pack (13th) in defensive field goal percentage. (Golden State is a less-than-mediocre 22nd.)
So next time your buddy knocks the Nuggets, bet him that Denver is in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency and opponents’ field goal percentage. You’re bound to win some dough.
