Month: May 2007 (Page 5 of 12)

Even though they only had a 5.3% chance, the Portland Trailblazers won the 2007 Draft Lottery and the right to draft Greg Oden. The Blazers jumped up five spots from #6 to #1. Rounding out the top three are the Sonics at #2 and the Hawks at #3. The lottery losers are Memphis, Boston and Milwaukee who each dropped three spots.

Things are looking up in Portland. They can now they can now pair Brandon Roy, the 2006 Rookie of the Year winner, with Oden and have a great nucleus to build around. Meanwhile, the Sonics, who are going through loads of ownership/stadium issues, will likely be able to add Kevin Durant to the roster. If Rashard Lewis decides to opt out of his contract and enter free agency this summer, Durant would be a natural replacement for him. If Lewis decides to stay, the Sonics could go small with Durant at small forward and Lewis at power forward. Throw in the league’s purest shooter, Ray Allen, and the Sonics would be a fun team to watch.

Even though Atlanta missed out on the top two picks, they were still winners tonight. Had they not cracked the top three, their pick would have been sent to Phoenix to close out the Joe Johnson trade. The Suns have had a couple of weeks of terrible luck. First, they lose the series with the Spurs (with some help from Commissioner Stern) and tonight they lose the #4 pick. Ouch.

From a macro standpoint, the NBA can’t be happy about the two best players in the draft going to the already loaded Western Conference. For balance, it would have been ideal for both Oden and Durant to land in the East, especially Boston, Atlanta or Chicago (when considering the marketing possibilities).

Here’s the full list:

1. Portland
2. Seattle
3. Atlanta
4. Memphis
5. Boston
6. Milwaukee
7. Minnesota
8. Charlotte
9. Chicago
10. Sacramento
11. Indiana
12. Philadelphia
13. New Orleans
14. LA Clippers

Before tonight’s lottery, be sure to read Bill Simmons’ piece, where he ranks the 14 teams according to how much good karma they’ve built up over the last several years. Here are a few highlights:

On the Kings:
“Strangely, the Maloofs seem more interested these days in promoting the Palms, giving feature interviews, making commercials and appearing in reality shows. Hey, fellas? Quit the Dean Martin routine for a few months and start worrying about the Kings. You’re creeping us out. Also, I’d move to sunglasses in public at all times. Just a thought.”

On the Bulls:
“If this spot comes up and Chicago’s logo isn’t in the No. 10 envelope, it immediately becomes the most dramatic lottery moment of all-time. Every Knicks fan would cease breathing for the rest of the lottery. That’s no exaggeration. Whether they’d ever start breathing again remains to be seen.”

On the Bobcats:“Given that the NBA misfired so badly with Charlotte as an expansion city, watching the Bobcats land Oden or Durant would be more frustrating than watching Zach Braff make out with Scarlett Johansson.”

On the Timberwolves:
“Nobody deserves a stroke of lottery fortune less than Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale, the NBA’s version of Bush/Rumsfield for 8-10 years. Of course, nobody deserves a stroke of lottery fortune more than KG, one of the few superstars with too much pride to ever bail on a sinking ship. Either that, or they’re blackmailing him with a sex tape so he’ll stay.”

On the Bucks:
“When’s the last time you met a long-suffering Bucks fan? Didn’t Kareem flee this city once upon a time? Doesn’t everyone in Wisconsin care about the Packers, the University of Wisconsin, Marquette and the Brewers in that order?”

On the Celtics (his favorite team):
“I want you to zoom through the 14 lottery teams again. With the possible exception of Seattle (for reasons we’re about to explain), find me a group of fans who’d be more devastated tonight if they didn’t land No. 1 or No. 2. Name me a better home for Oden or Durant from the NBA’s standpoint. Name me a young team that makes a leap more quickly than the Celtics with a Pierce-Jefferson-Oden/Durant nucleus. Compared to the other perennial screw-ups and basketball coldbeds on this list, how could you argue against the Celtics’ karmic rights for a top-two pick? We’re due, aren’t we? Please tell me we’re due. For the love of God, TELL ME WE’RE DUE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

“…more frustrating than watching Zach Braff make out with Scarlett Johansson.” That’s some great stuff, though I took a bunch of shit from the Zach Braff Fan Club over at PremiumHollywood.com for having basically the same opinion. (My handle was Eli Cash back then.)

I do take issue with his opinion of the Bucks. Charlie Villanueva was dealing with a bad shoulder all year, so why would they press him back into service if the playoffs were already lost? Bogut injured his foot and (maybe) could have come back in early April, but what’s the point? Considering how much the C’s tanked, Simmons might be squandering some of that good karma by throwing stones from his glass house.

He’s right, though. Celtics fans are going into the lottery expecting to come away with one of the top two picks. Considering the odds are against them, I’m not sure that’s a smart way to approach it. If the C’s fall outside the top two, the devastation will be enormous.

Tonight’s draft lottery promises to be a suspenseful affair. The biggest prize is Ohio State’s Greg Oden, who some have labeled as the best prospect at the center position since Tim Duncan. It’s possible (however unlikely) that the winner of the lottery would instead select Texas’ Kevin Durant, a polished, NBA-ready scoring forward (and college Player of the Year). Scouts agree that both players will become franchise players. Here are the odds of each of the lottery teams landing one of the top two picks:

1. Memphis (46.5%)
2. Boston (38.7%)
3. Milwaukee (31.3%)
4. Phoenix¹ (24.5%, pick goes back to Atlanta)
5. Seattle (18.5%)
6. Portland (11.3%)
7. Minnesota (11.3%)
8. Charlotte (4.1%)
9. Chicago² (4.1%, Chicago retains pick)
10. Sacramento (3.9%)
11. Atlanta³ (1.8%, pick goes back to Indiana)
12. Philadelphia (1.5%)
13. New Orleans (1.3%)
14. LA Clippers (1.1%)

¹Suns receive Hawks’ first round pick, top 3 protected (Joe Johnson trade)
² Bulls have the right to swap first round picks with the Knicks (Eddy Curry trade)
³ Hawks receive Pacers’ first round pick, top 10 protected (Al Harrington trade)

The onus is definitely on landing one of those first two picks, but this draft is so loaded with talent that teams that end up with picks #3-#6 will get a player (Brandan Wright, Yi Jianlian, Al Horford or Corey Brewer) that is a better prospect than the top few picks (Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas) in last year’s draft.

For example, I’d love to see my beloved Bucks land Oden or Durant, but a consolation prize of Horford or Brewer wouldn’t be bad.

For some unintentional humor, keep an eye on the Knicks’ representative (if the NBA requires one to be there). The Bulls get the Knicks’ first round pick, so if New York somehow lands a pick in the top three, they won’t be at all happy about it. The Hawks are also in a strange position. They are rooting for their #4 pick to win the lottery (so they get it back from Phoenix) while also rooting for their #11 pick (from Indiana) to stay out of the top three, so it doesn’t return to the Pacers.