Below are the power forward tiers. When determining statistical outlooks, I used the (twelve team) nine-category rotisserie system that Yahoo uses, which includes both field goal and free throw percentage, three-point shots made, total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. Turnovers didn’t play a big role in my calculations because well-managed teams usually lose this category every week just because their total number of games played is greater than their opponent’s. Besides, if turnovers were of equal weight, they wouldn’t impact the rankings very much.
Players are listed in order within the tier, but there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the players within each tier. Players listed in parenthesis have dual position eligibility in the Yahoo game. For instance, Kevin Garnett is considered a power forward in many fantasy games, but in the Yahoo game (and many others), he’s also eligible to play small forward. Look for the C tiers tomorrow. Be sure to check out the PG tiers , the SG tiers and the SF tiers.
TIER ONE: (Kevin Garnett), Elton Brand, (Shawn Marion), Dirk Nowitzki
Kevin Garnett is still a fantasy stud, bringing good to great numbers in every statistical category except for threes…Elton Brand leads Shawn Marion in three statistical categories – points, assists and blocks, while FG% and FT% are pretty close. Marion’s rebounds will dip if Amare Stoudemire makes a healthy return, making Brand the slightly safer choice at power forward after KG…Dirk Nowitzki enters the conversation as well. He brings outstanding scoring and FT%, while his assists and rebounds are also pretty good. When compared to Brand and Marion, Nowitzki loses ground in FG% and steals, but it’s really a matter of preference with those three.
TIER TWO: (Chris Bosh), (Tim Duncan)
Chris Bosh might be ready to explode. He averaged 22.5 points and 9.2 rebounds per game last season, and that might be a baseline if the Raptors successfully implement the Suns’ wide-open offensive scheme. He’s solid in every category except for steals and threes, making him a great second-round pick, but he may already be gone…Tim Duncan battled injuries last season and still averaged 18.6 points and 11.0 rebounds per game. He’s no longer a no-brainer first round pick, but he’s a very solid, versatile option in the second round.
TIER THREE: (Jermaine O’Neal), (Lamar Odom), (Boris Diaw), Dwight Howard, Rasheed Wallace, (Andrei Kirilenko)
Jermaine O’Neal is excited about how the Pacers are going to speed things up this season, which should result in better play. Except for steals, his numbers are quite solid and I expect him to average 10+ boards with a move back to the center position…Lamar Odom still hurts you with his FT%, but he improved his FG%, three-point shooting and assists last season, becoming one of the league’s most consistent players. He lost his infant son over the summer, so there’s no telling where his mind is at right now. I’m not a Laker fan, but I’m rooting for Odom this year…If Boris Diaw is eligible to play PF or C in your league, his value soars. After the All-Star break, Diaw averaged 15.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists while shooting 57% from the field. The big question – how will the returns of Amare Stoudemire and Kurt Thomas affect his playing time? He may not play 35 minutes a game again this season, but the Suns will find a way to get him 30…Dwight Howard is a monster on the boards and in FG%, but his FT% is atrocious. Other than assists, he’s pretty solid elsewhere. Like Shaq, you’re putting yourself in a big hole with his free throw shooting, but if you are okay with forfeiting that category each week, Howard is your man…With the departure of Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace will be asked to do more rebounding this year, especially if Nazr Mohammed doesn’t work out at center. Other than FG%, the rest of his numbers are pretty strong…Yes, Andrei Kirilenko stuffs the stat sheet, but the guy is a serious injury risk – he missed 54 games in the last two seasons. I have a very tough time taking a guy with that kind of history in the second round, even if he does block 3.2 shots per game.
TIER FOUR: David West, (Antawn Jamison), (Mehmet Okur), (Amare Stoudemire), (Carlos Boozer), (Pau Gasol), Chris Webber
David West started out on the waiver wire of many a fantasy league last season, eventually becoming one of the biggest surprises of the year. He is strong in FG%, FT% and points, while the rest of his numbers are pretty solid, except for assists. He’ll probably lose a few shots to Peja Stojakovic, but his FG% should rise as a result. He’s currently going in the 6th round, which is a steal…Antawn Jamison lost some accuracy from the field last season, but his scoring, rebounding and threes all increased. His blocks are pathetic, but the rest of his numbers are quite solid…His FG% and steals are pretty poor, but Mehmet Okur is strong in just about every other category, making him a very solid pick in the 4th round and a steal in the 5th…Obviously, the big question about Amare Stoudemire is the health of his knees. He’s struggled some this preseason, but is playing. I just think there is way too much risk there for a guy going in the second round. Let someone else take him while you grab Jermaine O’Neal or Lamar Odom at a fraction of the risk…Carlos Boozer doesn’t block many shots, but the rest of his numbers are pretty solid, including some great FG%, points, rebounds and assists (for a PF). His hamstrings appear to be good to go and he seems happy as camp progresses, so he provides adequate value in the 4th…When do you draft Pau Gasol? The guy is a Top 20 talent when healthy, but he’s going to miss four months, which means he should be back in mid-January, returning for just three months of the season. Currently, he’s going in the middle of the 5th, which isn’t a bad value if you feel good about your first four picks. He’s a guy that can really help in a playoff run…He’s an injury risk, but when Chris Webber plays, he’s pretty productive. His FG% is his only major flaw, but he’s getting on in years and a dropoff has to be getting close.
TIER FIVE: (Emeka Okafor), (Nenad Krstic), (Channing Frye), Troy Murphy, (Chris Wilcox), (Charlie Villanueva), (Andrew Bogut)
Emeka Okafor is a double-double guy when healthy, but he still hasn’t said his ankle is 100%, so in the 5th round, I’d probably let someone else take the risk…Nenad Krstic broke out last season, averaging 14.8 points and 7.7 rebounds per game after the All-Star break. His blocks and steals are below average, but the rest of his numbers are good…Channing Frye averaged 15.6 points and 7.9 rebounds in 14 games as a starter last season. He’s expected to start at PF for the Knicks and should benefit from Isiah Thomas’ arrival as head coach…Troy Murphy has averaged a 14+ points and 10+ rebounds each of the last two seasons and that trend should continue as new head coach moves him to center. His FG% (43.3%) and blocks (.4) were awful last season, but the rest of his numbers are solid…After he was traded to the Sonics, Chris Wilcox averaged 14.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, while shooting 59.2% from the floor and 78.7% from the free throw line. Don’t expect those percentages to continue, but Wilcox should provide stability inside for Seattle…How will Charlie Villanueva fit in with the Bucks? He did play better over the second half of the season, but he did all that scoring on a bad team. He’ll be the third or fourth option in Milwaukee and won’t be shooting the three as much…Andrew Bogut is going to be out until late November/early December with a lower leg sprain he suffered in training camp. He could still average a double-double this season, but this injury will definitely hamper his progress.
TIER SIX: Kenyon Martin, Zach Randolph, (Al Harrington), (Danny Granger), (Marvin Williams), (Zaza Pachulia)
Kenyon Martin has patched things up with head coach George Karl, but are his knees better? If so, he could be a surprise fantasy-wise…Zach Randolph offers points, rebounds and loads of off-court incidents. He’s going in the 7th and the 8th, which is too high for a guy with his baggage…Al Harrington returns to Indiana to play power forward (Jermaine O’Neal is expected to play center). Harrington brings good points and rebounds, but the rest of his stats are just average, except for FT% and blocks, which are pretty poor for his position…Danny Granger is expected to start at small forward for the Pacers. In the 17 games he started last season, Granger averaged 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.1 blocks. His rebounds might fall a bit, but his points should increase…Marvin Williams is slated to start at power forward this season, and should benefit from another year of experience and the extra minutes. Don’t even bother looking at his season stats from last year. In six games as the starter, he averaged 11 points and seven rebounds – those numbers should be a baseline for this season…Zaza Pachulia had a pretty good season last year, but the Hawks brought in Lorenzen Wright and drafted Shelden Williams, so Zaza may not be the starter for long.
TIER SEVEN: Vladimir Radmanovic, (Shareef Abdur-Rahim), Udonis Haslem, (Adam Morrison), Drew Gooden, (Shelden Williams), (Kendrick Perkins), (Kwame Brown), (Darko Milicic), Al Jefferson, Stromile Swift, (Kurt Thomas), (Nene), (Ike Diogu), Antonio McDyess, (P.J. Brown), Kenny Thomas
The Lakers lured Vladimir Radmanovic away from the Clippers, and he should start at small forward, providing the team with a player who can stretch the court. He offers great three-point range, but his FG%, rebounding and blocks are pretty spotty for a guy his size. Still, he should see more than 30 minutes a game for the first time since the 2003-04 season, and that will help his productivity…Shareef Abdur-Rahim only averaged 23 minutes after the All-Star break, basically splitting time at the PF position with Kenny Thomas, so I don’t expect his numbers to jump appreciably this season…Udonis Haslem blocks and points are below average for his position, but he’s steady, and his FG% (50.8%) and FT% (78.9%) won’t hurt you…Adam Morrison is expected to start at small forward for the Bobcats. 12-15 points and 4-7 rebounds are within reach, but preseason will be the best gauge of how well his game will translate to the pro level…With he emergence of Anderson Varejao, Drew Gooden saw his minutes fall to an average of 27.5 last season, but he still managed 10.7 points and 8.4 rebounds, while increasing his FG% to 51.2%…The Hawks liked Shelden Williams so much that they moved up in the draft, even though they didn’t have to. He figures to backup Marvin Williams and ZaZa Pachulia this season, and it won’t take long before he’s getting substantial minutes. He should provide good rebounding and blocks…Kendrick Perkins showed some flashes in his third season, averaging 7.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in 37 games as the Celtics’ starting center. The team acquired Theo Ratliff, so the two will battle it out this preseason…Kwame Brown has all the physical tools to be a great center in the league, except good hands. In 32 games as the team’s starting center, he averaged 10.7 points and 7.8 rebounds, but his FT% and blocks aren’t up to snuff…I really thought Darko Milicic would be a strong sleeper heading into the season, but Magic head coach Brian Hill plans on starting Tony Battie alongside Dwight Howard. Maybe he’s just doing it to motivate Milicic…Al Jefferson is slimmed down and should see time at power forward for the Celtics. Boston is looking for front court help, so if he can stay healthy and out of foul trouble, Jefferson could fit the bill…Year in and year out, Stromile Swift is a fantasy tease, but the Grizzlies will have to rely on him with Pau Gasol out until mid-January…Kurt Thomas missed much of last season with a foot injury, but only averaged 8.6 points and 7.8 rebounds in 53 with the Suns last season. If Amare Stoudemire makes a strong return, Thomas won’t see a ton of minutes…Nene is coming of a knee injury but has shown flashes of talent in the past. It looks like he’ll start the season backing up Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin…Don Nelson seems to really like the idea of playing Mike Dunleavy at power forward, so Ike Diogu might find that minutes are hard to come by. He has shown flashes of ability, but hasn’t been consistent enough to earn big minutes…Antonio McDyess isn’t getting any younger, but along with Nazr Mohammed, he’ll be asked to replace Ben Wallace…P.J. Brown and Kenny Thomas are solid, yet unspectacular. They’re good players to plug in when injuries hit.
TIER EIGHT: (Mark Blount), (Chris Mihm), (Jeff Foster), Brian Cook, (Melvin Ely), (Donyell Marshall), (Antoine Walker), (Nick Collison), (Raef LaFrentz), (Theo Ratliff), (Tony Battie), (Tyrus Thomas), (Rudy Gay), (Andrea Bargnani), (LaMarcus Aldridge)
Mark Blount provides adequate scoring and rebounding numbers inside…Antoine Walker brings the threes, but his FG% and FT% will really drag your team down… Chris Mihm is still having trouble with the ankle injury that cost him 24 games last season. He’s a decent fantasy center when healthy…Keep an eye on the minutes that Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay and Andrea Bargnani get in preseason. If they are involved in the rotation, they may have some value as the season grows closer…LaMarcus Aldridge doesn’t figure to get a lot of time this season as he recovers from a shoulder injury.
