Putting fantasy players into tiers is not a new concept. It makes perfect sense to group players with similar statistical outlooks in order to maximize value on draft day. If you’re deciding between drafting a point guard or a power forward, and you’ve only got one guard left in a tier compared to four or five centers, go ahead and select the guard and hope that one of the centers is there for your next pick.
Compared to fantasy football, Average Draft Position (ADP) is not as good of a guide in fantasy hoops. If you search hard enough, you can find ADP data at the ESPN or Yahoo fantasy sites, but it doesn’t seem to be updated regularly. Generally, if you want a particular player and his ADP is getting close, go ahead and take him. The most important thing is that you have a team you like at the end of the draft.
Below are the tiers for the point guard position. When determining statistical outlooks, I used the (twelve team) nine-category rotisserie system that Yahoo uses, which includes both field goal and free throw percentage, three-point shots made, total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and turnovers. Turnovers didn’t play a big role in my calculations because well-managed teams usually lose this category every week just because their total number of games played is greater than their opponent’s. Besides, if turnovers were of equal weight, they wouldn’t impact the rankings very much.
Players are listed in order within the tier, but there isn’t a whole lot of difference between the players within each tier. Players listed in parenthesis have dual position eligibility in the Yahoo game. For instance, Dwyane Wade is considered a shooting guard in many fantasy games, but in the Yahoo game (and many others), he’s also eligible to play point guard. Look for the SG, SF, PF and C tiers as the week goes on.
TIER ONE: (Dwyane Wade), Gilbert Arenas, Steve Nash
Dwyane Wade is a statistical monster, leading his natural position (SG) in assists, steals and blocks, while boasting a very good FG%. His only weakness is his three-point shot…It’s easier to find points later in the draft than assists, but Gilbert Arenas brings a lot to the table statistically, especially three-pointers, points and steals. The rest of his numbers are quite solid, so he doesn’t really hurt you elsewhere…If you need assists, FG% or FT%, Steve Nash is your man. He’s also quite good from three-point range, but his steals numbers aren’t impressive. His scoring will probably dip a bit with the return of a healthy Amare Stoudemire (more on that later this week), but the rest of his numbers should hold steady.
TIER TWO: Chris Paul, Jason Kidd, Allen Iverson, Chauncey Billups, (Joe Johnson)
Many pundits will have Chris Paul in the first tier, and while I think his assists will improve from last year (7.8) with the addition of Peja Stojakovic, Paul’s three-point numbers (0.6 per game) hold him back. He’ll give you a ton of assists, steals and rebounds, and is without a doubt the league’s best young point guard…Jason Kidd just keeps on trucking. He’s a bit of an injury risk, having missed an average of 11 games in the last three years, but leads his position in rebounds and puts up outstanding assist and steal numbers…Allen Iverson had arguably his best statistical season last year, but I have to wonder about his head after all the trade rumors this summer. Is he going to play with that same passion that we’ve come to expect from him? I think he’s still a gamer, but he’ll be hard-pressed to put up 33.0 points and 7.4 assists per game again this season, especially considering the 44.7% he shot from the field, his highest FG% in the last 8 years…Chauncey Billups puts up great FT%, 3PT and assist numbers. The rest of his numbers are decent, though he could work on his FG% and steals. I expect his rebounds to jump at least one board per game with the departure of Ben Wallace…Joe Johnson offers solid to strong numbers in every category and his dual eligibility makes him a valuable asset in the Yahoo game. Since he’ll be playing more off guard with the arrival of Speedy Claxton, expect his assists to tick down a bit and his scoring and threes to tick up.
TIER THREE: Mike Bibby, (Kirk Hinrich), Mike James, Jason Terry
With the departure of Peja Stojakovic, Mike Bibby had to score more , and responded with a career-high 21.1 points per game last season. He’s quite strong in three-pointers, points and FT%, and doesn’t really have any glaring weaknesses. He’s an all around solid point guard…Kirk Hinrich is coming off a great stint for Team USA in the World Championships. He provides good 3PT and assist numbers, but his career FG% (40.2%) needs to improve. I expect that his solid rebounding numbers from last season (3.6) could drop under 3.0 with the arrival of Ben Wallace…Mike James is one of the tougher players to rank this preseason. After a modest career, he broke out in a big way last season, averaging 20.3 points and 5.8 assists with the Raptors. Now he’s with the Timberwolves, and I’m not sure he can match those numbers this season. He’ll still put up solid stats, but he’s the riskiest pick in this tier…Jason Terry will probably play more shooting guard this season than point, so don’t expect his assist numbers to improve much. He provides great three-point shooting and FG%, while the rest of his numbers (except rebounds) are pretty solid.
TIER FOUR: Raymond Felton, (Delonte West), Stephon Marbury, Jameer Nelson, Baron Davis, Steve Francis
Raymond Felton finished the season strong, averaging 16.7 points and 7.6 assists per game after the All-Star break. His big weakness is his FG% (39.1%), but he makes up for it with strong numbers in threes, steals and assists. Brevin Knight still factors into the Charlotte PG situation, but word is that Michael Jordan really likes Felton and wants to build the team around him…According to his ADP, Delonte West is going in the 10th round, which is grand larceny, assuming his back is okay to start the season. All of his numbers are at or above the averages for his position (so he doesn’t hurt you in any category) and he’s a great source of blocks, rebounds, FG% and FT%. He has to fend off Sebastian Telfair and that sore back to start at PG, but he could also see some time at SG alongside Telfair…Stephon Marbury should benefit from having Isiah Thomas at coach, not because Thomas is any good, but because Starbury should have free reign. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him average close to 20 points and 8 assists per game, but his FG% (career: 43.6%) and rebounding averages aren’t very good…Jameer Nelson finished strong last season, averaging 15.8 points and 5.6 assists per game after the All-Star break. His numbers are all pretty solid, but he boasts an awesome FG% (48.3%) for a guard. Carlos Arroyo backs him up, but Nelson proved last season that he’s the best point guard on the roster…Baron Davis’ career FG% (40.7%) and FT% (66.8%) are pretty bad, but he’s a stud in three-pointers, points, assists and steals. He’s a huge injury risk, as he’s only played an average of 54 games in the last four seasons, but he might respond well to Don Nelson’s loosey-goosey approach as coach of the Warriors..It looks like Isiah Thomas is committed to playing Steve Francis and Marbury together. Francis’ career numbers are too strong to ignore, but there’s a chance that this situation could implode at any point during the season.
TIER FIVE: Andre Miller, Tony Parker, Mo Williams, T.J. Ford, Rafer Alston, Luke Ridnour
Andre Miller is solid in every category, except in 3PT, so if you decide to draft him, be sure to focus on that category later on. He’ll give you great assist numbers and his FG% is quite strong… It’s strange to see Tony Parker down here in Tier Five, as he’s widely recognized as one of the top point guards in the league. It’s true that he’s good – quite good in fact – but he’s not an especially good fantasy point guard. If you need help in FG% or points in the middle rounds of your draft, by all means take him, but he’ll hurt you in threes, free throw shooting and steals…One position battle to keep an eye on during the preseason is the starting point guard for the Bucks. Some think that Steve Blake will make a push for the job, but Mo Williams should be the starter. If he gets 30+ minutes, he should be quite productive, and would be a big time sleeper considering his ADP (in the 12th round). He brings excellent three-point and FT%, and other than less than stellar rebounding, the rest of his numbers are very solid…The Raptors traded away Charlie Villanueva for T.J. Ford, who was brought in to play the same role that Steve Nash plays in Phoenix. He could average eight assists per game and rebounds well for a guard, but he’s not particularly good from the field, and he’s even worse from the three-point line…Rafer Alston has bounced around throughout his career, but he seemed to find a home in Houston last season, averaging 12.8 points and 7.1 assists after the All-Star break. His shooting accuracy from both the field (37.9%) and from the line (69.2%) is atrocious, but he puts up good rebound and steal numbers…Luke Ridnour offers tremendous FT% and assist numbers, but his 3PT, points and rebounds aren’t very strong. He needs to fend off Earl Watson, but should see 30+ minutes at point guard if he wins the job.
TIER SIX: Sam Cassell, Smush Parker, (Brandon Roy), (Ben Gordon), Speedy Claxton, Deron Williams, Devin Harris, Jason Williams, Earl Watson, (Randy Foye)
Expect the production of Sam Cassell to decline a bit this season as his age and the emergence of Shaun Livingston cut into his numbers. Other than three-pointers made and steals, he’s pretty solid across the board…It remains to be seen whether or not Smush Parker can repeat his surprise 2005-06 season, but the Lakers didn’t acquire a better point guard, so expect him to play big minutes again this season. He’s a great source of steals and threes, which helps to offset his poor free throw shooting and his limited points and assists… Brandon Roy will be penciled in as the starter at shooting guard for the Blazers, and his dual eligibility makes him an option at point guard as well. During the pre-draft process, he was labeled as one of the guys that was NBA-ready, so expect him to start quickly out of the gate. His preseason performance should give a good indication on whether or not he belongs here or in another tier…Ben Gordon isn’t a true point guard – his assist numbers are poor – but he’s great from behind the arc and he’s a decent scorer. He’s sort of a specialist, so grab him if you need three-point or scoring help. His dual eligibility adds a bit more value…The Hawks signed Speedy Claxton to be their starting point guard, so expect him to put up better numbers than last season. His three-point shooting is abysmal, but the rest of his numbers are pretty solid. He’s especially good in the assist and steal categories…After a slow start, which surely gave the Jazz second thoughts about drafting Deron Williams over Chris Paul, Williams played pretty well after the All-Star break, averaging 13.2 points and 5.5 assists per game. His rebounds and steals are weak, but he brings good assist numbers to the table, while the rest of his stats are pretty solid…Devin Harris is super-quick, but his problem is lack of playing time. There are rumblings that he’s going to start for the Mavs if he can beat out Anthony Johnson, and if he gets 30 minutes a game he’ll have a very good year. Watch this situation in the preseason and move him up a tier if he wins the starting job. He’s been horrible thus far in his career from long range, which is strange because he was a very capable three-point shooter in college. The rest of his numbers are very solid…Jason Williams is recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery and isn’t going to be ready for the start of the season. Expect him to miss the first two weeks to a month and be a solid point guard option after that…Earl Watson played well for the Sonics once he came over from Seattle, and will fight for the starting PG spot this preseason. If he wins it, bump him up a tier. He brings excellent three-point shooting and good assist numbers, and doesn’t have any big holes in his game, save for his 67% career FT shooting…Keep an eye on how the Wolves use Randy Foye in the preseason. Right now, he’s listed as the backup shooting guard to Ricky Davis, but they could run Davis at the three and Foye at the two. Either way, Foye should see some time at point guard as well as shooting guard.
TIER SEVEN: Jamaal Tinsley, Jarrett Jack, Sebastian Telfair, Brevin Knight, Derek Fisher, Leandro Barbosa, Marcus Banks, Shaun Livingston, Damon Stoudamire
After being outplayed by Anthony Johnson (who signed with Dallas), Jamaal Tinsley is back in charge of the Pacers, but this time he has Marquis Daniels nipping at his heels. Daniels isn’t really a true point guard, so expect Tinsley to get every opportunity to run the team…Jarrett Jack has been handed the keys to the Portland offense and should benefit from the extra minutes. He’s known more for being a defender than a playmaker, which doesn’t translate well to fantasy hoops, but 12 points and six assists is not out of reach…The Celtics costly acquisition of Sebastian Telfair leads me to believe that Danny Ainge is a big fan. Statistically, Delonte West is the superior guard, but it looks like Telfair will have an opportunity to win the job. If he does, bump him up a tier…Brevin Knight will start the season backing up Raymond Felton, but he should get some minutes alongside Felton in the backcourt. He’s a valuable trade asset, so don’t be surprised if he’s starting somewhere else by the end of the season…Derek Fisher joins Deron Wiliams in Utah, and with Gordon Giricek starting at off guard, Fisher should see some minutes at shooting guard alongside Williams, unless Ronnie Brewer has a big preseason…Leandro Barbosa and Marcus Banks are both coming off the bench in Phoenix, but each will probably play some off guard to give Raja Bell a rest. Barbosa had decent value last season, but until it becomes clear how many minutes he and Banks are going to get, I wouldn’t use a mid round pick on either guy…Shaun Livingston has a lot of talent, but he’s still splitting time with Sam Cassell. If it looks like he’s going to get 30+ minutes as the preseason progresses, you can move him up a tier…Damon Stoudamire is coming off a knee injury. If he’s healthy enough to start the season, he’s probably a Tier Six guy.
TIER EIGHT: Chucky Atkins, Steve Blake, Chris Duhon, Sarunas Jasikevicius, Jordan Farmar, Gary Payton, Marcus Williams
Chucky Atkins would be a nice sleeper if Stoudamire can’t go…Steve Blake was pretty much all the Bucks got for Jamaal Magloire, but should be a good backup for Mo Williams…Chris Duhon played 29 minutes a game last season, but the Bulls have a crowded roster and I’m not sure he’s going to get that much playing time this season. His value jumps if Kirk Hinrich or Ben Gordon get injured…Sarunas Jasikevicius is the dark horse in the Pacers’ point guard battle. Tinsley isn’t all that good, but Jasikevicius hasn’t impressed thus far either…Jordan Farmar is a rookie, and Phil Jackson doesn’t like rookies. Farmar is going to have to have a great preseason to have a chance at playing a lot for the Lakers when the games start to count…Gary Payton will start for the Heat until Jason Williams gets back. After that, he doesn’t have much fantasy value…Marcus Williams is the heir apparent to Jason Kidd, but won’t see much time as long as Kidd is healthy.
