Month: September 2006 (Page 18 of 30)

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Think your job is done once the draft is over? Think again. Even the best fantasy teams have weaknesses and it’s your job to try to identify yours and try to fix them. Every year, at least one player that starts out the season on the waiver wire ends up having a great season, it’s just a matter of figuring out who’s going to have the best opportunity to shine. Here are a few guys that look like decent prospects after the first week of games, though there aren’t any players here that I would get too excited about.

QUARTERBACKS

Chad Pennington, NYJ
Over the past couple of years Pennington has accumulated a load of doubters, and he played like he had something to prove against the Titans, finishing with 319 yards and two touchdowns. If you’re looking for QB help (pay attention Trent Green owners), Pennington isn’t a bad option, though his matchup with the Patriots’ defense isn’t exactly a good one.

Charlie Frye, CLE
I was impressed with Frye’s ability to make things happen with his feet. He rushed the ball six times for 44 yards and a score, leading the Browns in that aspect of the game. His passing numbers weren’t very good (132 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), but he’ll likely be leading a comeback most weeks, so he’ll get ample opportunity to pad his stats in garbage time. Expect lots of throws against Cincinnati next week.

Alex Smith, SF
Smith threw for 288 yards and 1 TD against a less-than-stellar Cardinals defense. Like Frye, Smith is likely to be playing from behind most of the time, so big yardage totals are not out of the question. Smith faces a much-improved Rams defense at home next week, but after that, the schedule doesn’t look too bad.

Rex Grossman, CHI
Grossman torched the Packers for 262 yards and 1 TD, completing 69% of his passes. It’s not clear if the Packers D is that bad or if the Bears’ passing offense is that good, but Grossman has a date with Detroit next week that doesn’t look too foreboding.

RUNNING BACKS

Travis Henry, TEN
Henry is probably already on someone’s roster in your league, but if he isn’t, he’s certainly worth picking up. He’s already staked his claim to the goal line duties in Tennessee and Chris Brown’s hold on the starting job isn’t exactly strong, so Henry could see featured back duties at some point this season.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
Pennington targeted Cotchery 12 times on Sunday, and the third-year wideout caught six passes for 63 yards and a score. He had another TD reception nullified by a holding penalty. Cotchery has passed Justin McCareins on the depth chart and will have an opportunity to produce as long as Pennington is healthy.

Reggie Williams, JAX
Williams got the start over Ernest Wilford and caught a lot of short balls, finishing with six catches for 47 yards and a score. The third-year wideout will have plenty of opportunity to play, but keep in mind that Jacksonville prefers to run the ball.

Marques Colston, NO
Drew Brees found the rookie receiver four times for 49 yards and a touchdown. At 6’4”, he’s a big target and is one of the team’s first options down around the goal line. Someone will have to pick up the slack now that Donte Stallworth is gone, and while Reggie Bush promises to get many of those targets, Colston stands to benefit as well.

Dennis Northcutt, CLE
With Joe Jurevicius out 4-6 weeks, Northcutt will start alongside Braylon Edwards and will likely be the #3 option in the Browns’ passing game. Northcutt isn’t terribly explosive, but does have some value in PPR leagues.

TIGHT ENDS

Desmond Clark, CHI
Chris Baker (NYJ) and Daniel Wilcox (BAL) had better numbers, but Clark has the best chance of being a decent long-term fantasy backup. He caught five balls for 77 yards and appeared to be the #2 target in the passing game after Muhsin Muhammad.

DEFENSES

St. Louis Rams
Defenses don’t get a lot of play on the Waiver Wire Watch, but the Rams did a terrific job of shutting down a Denver offense that should be one of the best in the league this season. This might be a sign of problems for the Broncos, but more likely it’s an indication of just how good of a defensive coach Jim Haslett actually is.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals D tallied seven sacks, forced two fumbles and picked off one pass against Kansas City. They also kept the Chiefs’ running game under wraps, allowing Larry Johnson just 68 yards on the ground.

In the interests of full disclosure, I drafted Reggie Bush in two fantasy leagues (at 2.12 in a 12-team league and at 3.05 in a 10-team league – both PPR), so I have a vested interest in seeing the rookie perform well this season. Coming in, I envisioned that Bush would be used in a similar way that the Eagles use Brian Westbrook, and after watching the Saints/Browns game on Sunday, I’m encouraged by what I saw.

I’ll admit Deuce McAllister’s presence is somewhat worrisome, but even considering his 22 carries, the team still found a way to hand the ball to Bush 14 times. Granted, the Browns had a pretty bad rush defense last season, yielding 138 yards per game on the ground, and it won’t be clear for a few more weeks just how much they’ve improved – if they’ve improved at all. Still, Bush’s 119 total yards of offense is encouraging. It’s clear that the team will feed him the ball any way they can, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bush is the Saints’ leading receiver this season. He caught eight passes on 10 targets, which is a reasonable ratio considering that most of the routes were dumpoffs or crossing routes.

In most PPR leagues, Bush scored 19.9 points. Heading into tonight’s doubleheader, that makes him the #6 RB and – other than Tiki Barber – every guy ahead of him found the endzone at least once. Given the Saints’ history of being offensively challenged, Bush probably won’t hit double-digit TDs this season, but eight is a reasonable target. Many thought that McAllister would get all of the goal line carries, but the rookie did get one in the second quarter on Sunday.

I expect Bush will garner 10-15 carries a game, and at a 4.4 average, that’s 55 yards a game. Throw in 4-8 catches at 7.0 ypc – that’s another 42 yards. Over a full season, that’s 1552 yards. Assuming eight touchdowns, that equates to 299 points in a standard PPR league. Last season, that total would have made him the #7 RB, a great value for a guy available in the second or third round of most drafts.

However, any number of things could derail a good season from Reggie Bush. It’s unclear how he’ll hold up to the pounding, but he looked pretty solid running inside on Sunday. Certainly an injury to Drew Brees or to the offensive line would hurt, but an injury to McAllister would only serve to help Bush’s numbers.

For those that didn’t see the game, the guy is the real deal.