In the last half of August, Daunte Culpepper’s Average Draft Position (ADP) at Antsports.com was 7.02, making him the eighth QB off the board, ahead of Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Drew Bledsoe, Trent Green and Mike Vick.
Owners that drafted Culpepper were probably did so because of his 2004 season, one of the greatest statistical performances ever turned in by a QB. He threw for 4717 yards and 39 touchdowns against only 11 picks, yielding a stellar QB rating of 110.9. He also rushed for 406 yards and two scores. In 2003, he threw for 3479 yards and 25 scores against 11 picks, yielding a very good QB rating of 96.4. That season, he also rushed for 422 yards and four touchdowns.
From a performance fantasy perspective, Culpepper averaged a phenomenal 32.6 ppg in 2004 and a very good 24.4 ppg the year before. So it seemed reasonable to some that those numbers were within reach after he joined an up-and-coming Miami team with several good weapons – Ronnie Brown, Chris Chambers and Randy McMichael – to work with.
But, coming into the season, Culpepper’s value was held down by glaring problem – the 2005 season. Before suffering a brutal knee injury in Week 8, Culpepper (and his team) were off to one of the worst starts of his career. Not counting the game in which he got injured, he threw for a respectable 1536 yards, but only threw six touchdowns against 12 interceptions. This projects out to 4096 yards, 16 touchdowns and 32 interceptions. His QB rating for 2005 was 72.0, the worst of his career.
So what happened to Culpepper in 2005? Well, he lost his best WR, Randy Moss. Despite his good career completion percentage (64.2%), Culpepper isn’t all that accurate of a thrower. Many of the passes he completed to Moss were bombs, where he simply threw the ball up and Moss went and got it. Culpepper is a talented deep thrower, and he was at his best when he had Moss to throw to. Chris Carter’s phenomenal hands also had a positive effect on Culpepper’s career accuracy.
Thus far, in two games with the Dolphins, he’s thrown for 512 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, which projects to 4096 yards, eight scores and 24 picks over the course of a full season. Only he might not make it through 16 games. He’s been sacked nine times in two games, and is holding the ball way to long in the pocket. With the knee injury limiting his mobility, he’s a statue back there. He’s never been a guy that was effective at buying himself time within the pocket – when the pressure came, he would either tuck the ball and run or he would quickly roll out of the pocket to make the throw. His mobility always had to be accounted for, so linebackers would cheat up in coverage to keep an eye on him. This opened up throwing lanes behind the LBs – lanes that are no longer there. He needs to adjust to his new reality and make decisions more quickly in the pocket. The days of him buying time with his feet are long gone.
In fairness, Culpepper has faced two tough defenses in Pittsburgh and Buffalo. I expect his numbers to improve over the next two weeks as he faces a porous Tennessee and Houston defenses. The Dolphins have designs on the playoffs and desperately need two wins against two subpar opponents to get back to .500. The remaining schedule isn’t exactly easy, and Culpepper will have to step up his play dramatically if the Dolphins hope to reach the postseason. Fantasy owners with Culpepper on their roster need to keep their fingers crossed.
