In the interests of full disclosure, I drafted Reggie Bush in two fantasy leagues (at 2.12 in a 12-team league and at 3.05 in a 10-team league – both PPR), so I have a vested interest in seeing the rookie perform well this season. Coming in, I envisioned that Bush would be used in a similar way that the Eagles use Brian Westbrook, and after watching the Saints/Browns game on Sunday, I’m encouraged by what I saw.
I’ll admit Deuce McAllister’s presence is somewhat worrisome, but even considering his 22 carries, the team still found a way to hand the ball to Bush 14 times. Granted, the Browns had a pretty bad rush defense last season, yielding 138 yards per game on the ground, and it won’t be clear for a few more weeks just how much they’ve improved – if they’ve improved at all. Still, Bush’s 119 total yards of offense is encouraging. It’s clear that the team will feed him the ball any way they can, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bush is the Saints’ leading receiver this season. He caught eight passes on 10 targets, which is a reasonable ratio considering that most of the routes were dumpoffs or crossing routes.
In most PPR leagues, Bush scored 19.9 points. Heading into tonight’s doubleheader, that makes him the #6 RB and – other than Tiki Barber – every guy ahead of him found the endzone at least once. Given the Saints’ history of being offensively challenged, Bush probably won’t hit double-digit TDs this season, but eight is a reasonable target. Many thought that McAllister would get all of the goal line carries, but the rookie did get one in the second quarter on Sunday.
I expect Bush will garner 10-15 carries a game, and at a 4.4 average, that’s 55 yards a game. Throw in 4-8 catches at 7.0 ypc – that’s another 42 yards. Over a full season, that’s 1552 yards. Assuming eight touchdowns, that equates to 299 points in a standard PPR league. Last season, that total would have made him the #7 RB, a great value for a guy available in the second or third round of most drafts.
However, any number of things could derail a good season from Reggie Bush. It’s unclear how he’ll hold up to the pounding, but he looked pretty solid running inside on Sunday. Certainly an injury to Drew Brees or to the offensive line would hurt, but an injury to McAllister would only serve to help Bush’s numbers.
For those that didn’t see the game, the guy is the real deal.
