For the first time in my dozen-year fantasy football career, one of my teams is blessed with the #1 overall pick. When I received the news, I was quite excited about my prospects for the season. Now, as draft day approaches, I am weighted down by the pressure of the pick. Here’s why:
Larry Johnson
For most of the preseason, Larry Johnson was looking like a very solid choice for the #1 overall pick. Last season, LJ rolled up 1627 total yards and 17 touchdowns in the final nine games of the season. That projects out to 2892 total yards and 30 scores over a 16-game season. Okay, it would be foolish to expect those numbers, but certainly 2000 total yards and 20 scores is reasonable, right?
Not so fast. Kansas City changed coaches. Head coach Dick Vermeil and offensive coordinator Al Saunders are out, Herm Edwards and Mike Solari, formerly the Chiefs’ offensive line coach, are in. I doubt the duo will want to fix what isn’t broken, but Saunders is widely regarded as one of the league’s best offensive coordinators. Certainly the loss will hurt to some degree.
Tony Richardson, who had played his entire 11-year career as a fullback with the Chiefs, is now the blocking back for Chester Taylor in Minnesota. Second-year man, Ronnie Cruz is expected to fill his role. The change will be an adjustment for Johnson, who had a great rapport with Richardson on the field.
The next hit came when 11-time Pro Bowler Willie Roaf retired at the beginning of the preseason. There is a lot of speculation that this is his way of getting out of training camp, but Roaf has said that his retirement is for real.
“You know, Dion came back, Kyle Turley came back later on, but this year, you know, I’m done,” Roaf said. “I’m not one of those guys who’s going to miss all camp and do all that and then come back and play football. I don’t think that’s fair to my teammates to the fans and everybody to do it like that. If I’m going to be there, I’m going to be there and I’m going to be committed to that team.”
Footballguys.com had this to say about the Chiefs offensive line in a recent update [subscription required]:
Grade: B (slipping towards a C+ rating)
Former Rams and Saints offensive tackle Kyle Turley has been thrust into the limelight with the retirement of Willie Roaf. By all accounts he had a good training camp after missing two full seasons and attempting a comeback as a tight end earlier this year but quite frankly he has looked terrible during games. He is small and resembles a large tight end more than a staring left tackle and he has been getting thrown around by the opposing defenses. The tackle position is in shambles and the Chiefs will notice the difference on offense. Kevin Sampson appears ready to slide over to the right tackle position but he has started just one game at the NFL level. This unit is definitely sliding down the rankings in a hurry right now.
I wouldn’t worry about any of this if the Chiefs’ running game came out in the preseason and looked great. But after a decent seven-carry/30-yard performance against the Texans, LJ put up just 8 yards on four carries against the Giants. What’s worse is that the entire Kansas City running game was pathetic, putting up only 40 yards on 17 carries. And 10 of those yards came on two scrambles by quarterback Casey Printers. This does not look like the KC running game that we’re used to.
LaDainian Tomlinson
If you were to ask me who the most talented back in the league is, I’d say LaDainian Tomlinson, without hesitation. He finished as a top 3 fantasy RB each of the last four seasons. The big question mark for LT2 is the departure of Drew Brees and the insertion of Phillip Rivers into the lineup. By most accounts, Rivers is doing very well, and the team shouldn’t be overly affected by Brees’ departure. The Chargers haven’t had a good offensive line since Tomlinson arrived and all he’s done is average 1472 rushing yards, 478 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns per season. I think the team might lean on him a bit more with Brees’ departure, and I would be surprised if his receptions approached 60, which is beneficial for leagues that give one point per reception. He strikes me as the safest pick of the top 3.
Shaun Alexander
This particular fantasy league does award one point per reception, which keeps Alexander out of the #1 pick conversation. In this scoring system, he was the #1 back last season, but with the loss of Pro Bowl guard Steve Hutchinson, it is unlikely that he will rack up enough touchdowns to make up for his lack of receptions. Certainly he should be considered for the #1 pick in non PPR-leagues, but I’d still give the nod to Tomlinson, due to his terrific consistency over the past four years.
Conclusion
In the recent Scores Report poll, 39% of readers said that LJ was deserving of the #1 pick, while Tomlinson finished with 36% of the vote and Alexander 25%. I originally voted for LJ, but if the draft were today, I think I’d take Tomlinson. It’s a close call, but all the changes in Kansas City have me worried, and when in doubt, go with the most talented back. To me, that’s Tomlinson.
