Month: June 2006 (Page 21 of 21)

Cap Situation

The Rockets’ cap situation isn’t dire, but it isn’t good either. The team is on the books for $54.5 M next season. The team’s short-term success is going to depend on the status of Tracy McGrady and his seemingly-chronic back injury. McGrady is set to make $80 M over the next four years. With an EPM of .557 (#33 in the league) he’s almost worth the money – if he plays a full season. Due to his back, McGrady only appeared in 47 games last season, putting the Rockets in a tough situation (and out of the playoffs).

The franchise needs to build around Yao Ming, who recently signed a five-year/$73 M contract extension. Yao was by far Houston’s best player, and at an EPM of .731 (second in the league) he’s well worth the price. Yao is the kind of center that can dominate for three quarters, but needs help in the fourth when the double teams start coming with more regularity. McGrady was acquired to fill that role, but he hasn’t been healthy with any kind of consistency.

Juwan Howard is still the team’s best power forward, but with an EPM of .398 and three years and $21 M remaining on his contract, he is overpaid. The Rockets signed Stromile Swift in the offseason, and while he’s reasonably efficient (EPM=.442), he only played 20 minutes per game. He needs to see more action to earn his salary.

Listed as a small forward, Chuck Hayes did a phenomenal job rebounding in the limited minutes he received. His EPM of .573 was #27 in the league, mostly due to his accuracy from the field (56%) and the .34 rebounds he cleared per minute. The team should definitely commit more minutes to Hayes next season.

That leaves the fairly dismal backcourt of Rafer Alston (EPM=.369, 38% from the field), Luther Head (.327, 40%) and Keith Bogans (.320, 39%). Yao is not going to be able to do work down low with this kind of shooting on the perimeter. Alston did average 12 points and seven assists, which isn’t bad considering the team only owes him $19 M over the next four seasons.

Offseason Blueprint

Other than starting a prayer chain for McGrady’s back, there isn’t much the Rockets can do with no cap space. One priority should be finding a way to sign Mike James, who has indicated that he wants to return to Houston. Some doubt that he’d sign for the mid-level exception, which will be around $5.4 M, but based on the strength of his comments, it’s worth a try. He’d be coming home and, with a little luck, might have a shot at a ring. However, it’s unclear if the franchise even wants James – they traded him away to Toronto last year for Alston. Regardless, if they can acquire James, they should then try to move Alston for a sharpshooter or package him with Howard or Swift for more help up front.

The Rockets do have the #8 pick and NBADraft.net projects them to take Marcus Williams, who would be a good fit and could take over in a few years when James retires or becomes ineffective. They are also in the market for a dynamic small forward (Rodney Carney), a good shooting guard (Brandon Roy or J.J. Redick) or a tough power forward (Shelden Williams). McGrady, when healthy, can play either shooting guard or small forward, so the team has some flexibility when building around him. Roy would be a coup at #8, but otherwise, I like the idea of Shelden Williams alongside Yao and Hayes up front, with James and McGrady in the backcourt. This would allow the team to trade some of its depth at power forward for an accurate shooter to come off the bench. Regardless, the team will be back in the playoffs with a good offseason and a healthy Tracy McGrady.

Notes:

Houston’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Yao Ming 0.731 # 2
Chuck Hayes 0.573 # 27
Tracy McGrady 0.557 # 33
Dikembe Mutombo 0.472 # 97
Stromile Swift 0.442 # 129
Juwan Howard 0.398 # 184
Rafer Alston 0.369 # 237
Luther Head 0.327 # 284
Keith Bogans 0.320 # 291
Richie Frahm 0.277 # 317
David Wesley 0.277 # 318
Jon Barry 0.265 # 328

The Rockets have two stars – Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady – and they just need to get on the court at the same time. Based on their EPMs, Chuck Hayes deserves more minutes as does Stromile Swift.

Dallas 117, Phoenix 101 (Mavs lead series, 3-2)
Back in the 1998 NBA draft, my favorite team – the Milwaukee Bucks – selected a little-known 20 year-old kid out of Germany, Dirk Nowitzki, with the ninth pick and promptly traded him – along with Pat Garrity – to the Dallas Mavericks for Robert “Tractor” Traylor. At the time, Milwaukee had a nucleus of Ray Allen, Glenn Robinson and Terrell Brandon, so a “beefy” power forward made sense. The Mavericks had the sixth overall pick and the team knew nobody really cared about Nowitzki, so they figured they could convince a team with a later pick to draft Nowitzki for them and then make the trade, getting another player (Garrity) in return. Fast forward almost eight years, “Tractor” Traylor is pounding donuts at a Krispy Kreme somewhere while Dirk Nowitzki is dropping 50 on the Suns, giving his team a 3-2 advantage in the Western Conference Finals.

After shooting a miserable 3-13 in the Mavs’ loss in Game 4, Nowitzki bounced back, going 14-26 from the field and 17-18 from the free throw line en route to a franchise-playoff record 50 points. The game was closer than the final score would indicate; the Suns actually led 77-70 with 3:27 remaining in the third quarter. But the Mavs scored 10 unanswered points as part of a 12-4 run to close out the quarter with a one point lead. After a Steve Nash jump shot with 7:30 to play in the fourth, the Suns trailed by just three, 96-93, before the Mavs went on a 21-8 run to finish the game. Josh Howard is becoming a valuable sidekick to Nowitzki. He scored 23 points and grabbed seven boards in just 31 minutes of playing time (due to foul trouble). Tim Thomas scored 26 in the loss, while Nash and Shawn Marion each scored 20. But it was Thomas that made the biggest mistake of the game; after he blew a kiss to Nowitzki during an altercation in the third quarter, the big German went off. Lesson learned – you do not want to piss off the big German. The pressure is on the Suns now to play well at home in Game 6, while the Mavs can relax with the knowledge that a possible Game 7 will be on their home court, where Nowitzki obviously shines.

By the way, did I mention – in the 1998 draft – that the Celtics took Paul Pierce with the tenth pick?

Cap Situation

With Michael Olowokandi’s $6 M salary coming off the books, the Celtics have committed to a payroll of $53.2 M next season. Paul Pierce is the team’s lone star, and with a EPM of .626 (15th best in the league), he’s worth the $15.1 M he’s set to make next season. He has the option of extending his contract through 2007-08, but may not if he doesn’t like the direction the franchise is headed.

But it appears that the Celtics are headed in the right direction. They have four young players – Al Jefferson, Kendrick Perkins, Delonte West and Ryan Gomes – who were all in the Top 150 in EPM last season. Throw in Tony Allen and Gerald Green, and the team has a nice nucleus of good, young players. And young players are cheap.

That’s not the case with the team’s most egregious contract – Raef LaFrentz. His contract is worth $10.9 M next season with a player option of two more years for a total of $24.5 M. Considering his mediocre EPM of .423, he is way overpaid; the team simply won’t have any serious cap flexibility until his contract is off the books.

At $36 M over the next three years, Wally Szczerbiak is not a good value, but his shooting touch (he’s a career 50% shooter) is a nice compliment to Pierce’s post up game. Vin Baker’s $5.3 M contract comes off the books after next season, giving the team some much needed cap room next summer.

Offseason Blueprint

It’s unlikely that anyone is going to take LaFrentz off the team’s hands, so GM Danny Ainge simply has to wait it out. Pierce is the wildcard in Boston, and the team needs to keep him happy to ensure that he sticks around for two more seasons.

The surprising thing about the Celtics’ young players is that the talent is spread equally among all positions. Perkins and Jefferson are inside players, Gomes and Green are best suited for small forward, and West and Allen are backcourt players. If these six are able to collectively step up their games next season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston fighting for a playoff spot next April.

The team has the #7 pick in this year’s draft, and NBADraft.net projects them to take Brandon Roy. I doubt Roy will be available at #7, but if he is, he’d be a steal and a great fit. Since the team is so balanced, they really could go any direction with this pick.

Danny Ainge has done a nice job since he’s taken over GM duties in Boston. He’s drafted well and cleared the way for that young talent to develop by jettisoning Ricky Davis and Mark Blount. The turnaround is apparent, but will Pierce leave after next season in his quest for a ring? It’s a lot easier to win a title when you have another superstar to play with and the Celtics just don’t have another star…yet. It’s possible that one of the young Celtics will develop into that role or maybe the franchise will land a star in this year’s draft.

Notes:

Boston’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Paul Pierce 0.626 # 15
Al Jefferson 0.536 # 42
Kendrick Perkins 0.500 # 73
Wally Szczerbiak 0.462 # 107
Delonte West 0.448 # 123
Ryan Gomes 0.424 # 148
Raef Lafrentz 0.423 # 149
Tony Allen 0.377 # 221
Gerald Green 0.374 # 225
Michael Olowokandi 0.354 # 260
Orien Greene 0.267 # 325
Brian Scalabrine 0.246 # 341

With seven players (four under 25 years of age) in the Top 150, there is reason for optimism in Beantown. One way or another, the team needs to find a complimentary star to play alongside Paul Pierce. If he demands a trade next season or decides not to exercise his player option next summer, it will drastically change the course of the franchise.