Cap Situation
The Kings are on the books for $55 M heading into next season. The team doesn’t have any really egregious contracts on the roster, so most of the guys are earning their paychecks.
Mike Bibby has 3-years/$40.5 M remaining on his contract, and with an EPM of .461, he’s not far off the league average for $/EFF. Still, the team should try to use him as more of a distributor and allow him to be a little choosier in his shot selection. His 43% shooting and 5.4 assists per game are way off his career highs of 47% and 8.4 assists, respectively. He’s only 28, so he’ll be effective through the remainder of his contract.
Ron Artest is signed for two more years at an average cost of $7.5 per season. This is a terrific value for what Artest does on the floor. His EPM (.403) is surprisingly low, but that number doesn’t take into account the defensive toughness that he brings to the team. The most disturbing thing about Artest’s year was his dismal 38% shooting from the field. He took five three-pointers per game for the Kings, which is far too many considering his 31% career accuracy from behind the arc. Artest should be the team’s main low post threat – he should be able to bully most swingmen on the block.
Brad Miller owns the team’s second biggest contract, which has four-years and $44 M remaining. This isn’t a bad deal considering his EPM (.552, #6 among centers) and the contracts doled out to Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert last offseason. Miller turned 30 this April, but his game shouldn’t fall off as quickly as some others in the league. He doesn’t lean on his athleticism, so he should be effective throughout most of his contract.
The Kings have two good power forwards. Shareef Abdur-Rahim (EPM=.519) has four years and $24 M remaining on his contract. Kenny Thomas (.499) is signed for another four years at a total cost of $30.5 M, and is especially valuable considering that Abdur-Rahim isn’t the most durable player.
The team will get some cap relief after next summer, when the contracts of Corliss Williamson ($6.5 M) and Vitaly Potapenko ($3.3 M) come off the books. The team’s best prospect, Kevin Martin, has two more years remaining on his rookie contract at the total cost of $2.8 M, a good deal considering his encouraging EPM (.418).
Offseason Blueprint
The big decision this summer is whether or not to re-sign free agent Bonzi Wells. Wells is turning 30 this fall and is a career 13/5 type of guy, though he averaged 14/8 for the Kings this season. Wells had a HUGE playoff series against the Spurs, averaging 23 points and 12 rebounds on 61% shooting. When motivated – like this year, a contract season – Wells is a poor man’s Charles Barkley (EPM=.507), rebounding like crazy for a guy who is just 6’5”, and he’s a load for swingmen to handle on the block. That said, I wouldn’t reward him with a fat contract this summer. He’s always been considered a bit of a malcontent and it would be safer to keep him away from Artest in the long term. It seems like a franchise can get by with one malcontent, but there aren’t room for two on a team. The team’s best bet would be to try to coordinate a sign-and-trade for a good, young prospect or a first round draft pick. Considering that most teams are over the cap, the Kings shouldn’t have trouble finding a taker.
Despite the fact that the team went 26-14 after the Artest trade, which projects to a 53-win season, the Maloof brothers fired head coach Rick Adelman in favor of Eric Musselman, an energetic basketball-nut. The Maloofs reportedly found Adelman too aloof and wanted a better relationship with their head coach.
The team is not far away from contending for a title. They gave the Spurs all that they could handle in the first round and appear to be a franchise on the rise. The Kings have a lot of experience, but their core group is approaching 30 if not already that age, so the team has a 2-3 year window to make it happen. Considering that Artest has said that he wants to head east after his contract is up in two seasons, the clock is definitely ticking.
If they keep Wells, they are rolling the dice that he, Artest and Musselman can all co-exist. I’d opt for a younger, combo guard, one that would compliment Kevin Martin and Mike Bibby. The team could use its mid-level exception to try to wrest John Salmons from Philadelphia, or try to acquire such a player via a Wells trade.
The team has the #19 pick in the draft and NBADraft.net projects them to take Spanish guard Sergio Rodriguez, who has been compared to Jason Williams. This might not be the best idea. Ronnie Brewer, Shannon Brown, Mardy Collins, Maurice Ager or Quincy Douby might be better options.
The team needs to sign-and-trade Wells looking for a good, young combo guard or swingman to come off the bench. They could also use a good post player. Wells’ game fits these needs, but I just think he and Artest, combined, are a bomb waiting to explode. A good offseason along with a successful implementation of Musselman and his offense could vault the Kings towards the top of the West.
There is one trade rumor that has been gaining momentum since the Orlando pre-draft camp. The Kings would trade Brad Miller, Kenny Thomas and a re-signed Bonzi Wells, along with whomever Minnesota wants the Kings to draft at #19 for Kevin Garnett. This would leave the Kings with a core of Bibby, Artest and Garnett. If Sacramento could pull this trade off and fill in the gaps elsewhere, they’d be an immediate contender in the West.
Notes:
Sacramento’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Brad Miller 0.552 # 37
Shareef Abdur-Rahim 0.519 # 56
Bonzi Wells 0.507 # 65
Kenny Thomas 0.499 # 74
Mike Bibby 0.461 # 110
Kevin Martin 0.418 # 151
Ron Artest 0.403 # 179
Francisco Garcia 0.348 # 266
Vitaly Potapenko 0.299 # 304
Jason Hart 0.244 # 344
Wells is the biggest offseason decision for the franchise. Otherwise, if Musselman works out, the team is poised for a 2-3 year run as one of the elite teams in the West.
