Cap Situation

Pat Riley took a lot of grief for his roster moves in the offseason, but everything worked out in the end, as he and his band of mercenaries won Miami’s first NBA title. Considering they won a ring, I doubt the team will make major changes in the offseason, and with a payroll of over $62 M, they don’t have a ton of options.

Shaquille O’Neal’s contract runs another four years at $20 M per season. Shaq battled some injuries this season, but still put forth the league’s 11th best EPM (.678), third best amongst centers. Time has taken its toll on O’Neal; he averaged career lows in points (20.0) and rebounds (9.2). But his 60% FG shooting was tremendous, and as long as he’s playing, he affects the game like no other player in the league, making him well worth the price.

Dwayne Wade is entering the final year of his rookie contract at the unbelievably low price of $3.8 M. For a guy with an EPM of .698 – #6 in the league – this is a tremendous value. While rumors flew during the playoffs that he may keep his options open, you can expect Miami to try to sign him to a max extension this summer. After winning a title this season, I bet he’ll sign a deal that will keep him Miami for the next seven seasons.

Jason Williams’ contract runs two more seasons for more than $17 M. Williams only played 59 games this season and will have offseason knee surgery; he needs to return a more productive player (EPM=.406) in order to earn that big contract.

Antoine Walker’s deal lasts three more years at a total cost of almost $26 M. His EPM (.435) is average, so I’m sure the team would like to see him contribute a little more when he’s on the court. Still, Walker gave the Heat a valuable third scoring option to take some of the pressure off of O’Neal and Wade.

Udonis Haslem has four years remaining on his contract, which has a total price of more than $24 M. Haslem is a pretty good deal for the Heat, providing an above average EPM (.458) for a reasonable price. Plus, he pretty much earned his entire contract with his gritty defense on Dirk Nowitzki during the Finals.

Offseason Blueprint

The team should try to convince Alonzo Mourning to return for another season or two. Zo’s EPM (.590) was the 20th best in the league, 5th best amongst centers, giving the Heat a reliable backup to Shaq. Mourning may want a raise from the $1.1 M he made last season, and the Heat should consider it. It will be interesting to see what motivates Mourning now that he’s won a ring – will it be money or more titles? Only time will tell.

Gary Payton is also a free agent, but he should probably go ahead and retire. He’s a shell of the player he once was, but his legacy is in tact, as he made his mark with two huge shots in the Finals. He made an impact and won a ring – that should probably be enough. But Payton has indicated that he wants to play another season and will be content if the team brings in another point guard for him to help to develop.

With Wade, Walker, Haslem and Shaq, the team’s biggest need is at point guard. There are a couple of quality point guards – Speedy Claxton and Marcus Banks – that could be had for the mid-level exception. I think either guy would be an upgrade over Jason Williams.

Miami’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dwyane Wade 0.698 # 6
Shaquille O’Neal 0.678 # 11
Alonzo Mourning 0.590 # 20
Udonis Haslem 0.458 # 112
Antoine Walker 0.435 # 135
Jason Williams 0.406 # 172
Michael Doleac 0.369 # 238
James Posey 0.344 # 273
Derek Anderson 0.339 # 276
Gary Payton 0.326 # 285
Jason Kapono 0.303 # 300
Shandon Anderson 0.248 # 338

The team doesn’t have a pick in the first round of the draft, so if they want an impact player they’ll have to find one with the mid-level or via a trade. I doubt Riley will mess with the chemistry that won the franchise its first NBA title, but you never know. I’d go grab Banks or Claxton and re-sign Mourning (and James Posey, if he doesn’t exercise his player option), but other than that, I’d stand pat.