Cap Situation

With Keith Van Horn’s $15.7 M salary finally coming off the books, the Mavs have committed to a payroll of just over $74 M next season. Just like the Knicks, the team continues to spend a ton of money, but with 60 wins this season, owner Mark Cuban has much more to show for it.

Dirk Nowitzki’s increasing aggressiveness is one of the main reasons for the Mavs’ improvement this season. At .718, he had the league’s 4th best EPM, making him a good deal at the cost of $15.1 M next season. He has a player option for the following year, but I’m guessing he and Cuban will work out an extension keeping Nowitzki in Dallas for the foreseeable future as the Mavs would be hard pressed to replace his 26.6 points and 9.0 rebounds. Throw in his 48% shooting percentage (41% from long range) and it’s easy to see why Nowitzki is one of the game’s best offensive players.

Dallas’ second best player is Josh Howard, who really came on in his third year. Howard was a great draft pick for the Mavs, who got the former Wake Forest star with the #29 pick in the 2003 draft. Howard can score (15.6 ppg), rebound (6.3 rpg), and shoots the ball at a 47% clip, 43% from long range. He has one more year on his rookie contract ($1.6 M) and the Mavs would be smart to work out an extension this summer.

Michael Finley is still collecting checks from Cuban, and is set to make almost $36 M over the next two seasons. He was released as part of the amnesty clause of the newly signed Collective Bargaining Agreement, so he still gets paid by the Mavs even though he’s playing for the Spurs.

Erick Dampier will make $50 M over the next five seasons, which is a lot to pay for a guy with the #21 EPM (.474) amongst centers. Head coach Avery Johnson actually went to Dasagana Diop more in the playoffs, so if that trend continues, Dampier’s contract is going to be especially regretful in the coming years.

Jerry Stackhouse has one more year remaining on his contract at the price of $8 M. Stackhouse has been coming off the bench during his stint in Dallas and his shooting percentage is still hovering around 40%. The team won’t have to make a decision on his future until next summer, but signing him to any long-term deal would be a bad idea. After seeing Jerry’s questionable decision-making in the playoffs, I wouldn’t trust him in the game in crunch time.

Marquis Daniels has three years remaining on his contract at the tune of $19 M. Daniels logged 28.5 minutes per game during the regular season, mostly due to injuries to players in front of him, but only played 11.1 minutes in the playoffs. His EPM (.396) isn’t impressive, but I’m guessing more than a few teams would like to give him more minutes than he’s getting in Dallas. Since he seems to be buried on the bench when everyone’s healthy, he might be living in a different zip code sooner rather than later.

Devin Harris has two more years on his rookie deal for a total price of $7 M. He was actually more productive (EPM=.439) than the guy starting ahead of him (Jason Terry, EPM=.429). He had some great games in the playoffs but wasn’t given the minutes to find any consistency. If he develops a consistent jumper, he will be deadly.

Offseason Blueprint

Just like the Clippers (with Sam Cassell and Shaun Livingston), the Mavs have a free agent point guard, Jason Terry, who is playing ahead of a promising youngster. Cuban has indicated that he wants to re-sign Terry, but I think paying the guard anything more than $8 M a season (for no more than four years) would be a mistake. Terry has a reputation for being a clutch player, and he has hit some big shots, but he went 1-12 in the second half of Game 6 when the Mavs desperately needed a second scorer to take the pressure off of Nowitzki.

One strategy might be to re-sign Terry for 3-4 years in the hopes of keeping Harris’ value down until it’s time to sign him to an extension. But my guess is Terry is looking to sign for an average of $10 M a season for at least four years and he knows that Cuban will pay anything to keep this championship-caliber squad together. Cuban would be smart to play hardball with Terry.

The bigger offseason priority should be signing Howard to an extension. Howard has shown improvement every season, and if he makes another leap, he will be even more expensive next summer, when he’s a free agent. My guess is that the Mavs could lock him up in a 6-year/$60 M deal this summer. Assuming he stays relatively healthy, he shouldn’t have any problem earning that contract.

Dallas has the #28 pick in the draft, and NBADraft.net projects them to take Joel Freeland, a 19 year-old power forward out of England. Taking a foreign player that they can leave overseas for a year or two wouldn’t be a bad idea considering the depth of the current Mavs roster. But, considering Stackhouse’s age and Daniels’ questionable status with Avery Johnson, they could also look use a good shooting guard prospect – maybe P.J. Tucker or Denham Brown.

Dallas’ EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dirk Nowitzki 0.718 # 4
Josh Howard 0.498 # 76
Erick Dampier 0.474 # 96
Devin Harris 0.439 # 130
Jason Terry 0.429 # 139
Desagana Diop 0.417 # 155
Marquis Daniels 0.396 # 187
Keith Van Horn 0.395 # 188
Jerry Stackhouse 0.372 # 233
Adrian Griffin 0.366 # 243
Josh Powell 0.316 # 293
Rawle Marshall 0.282 # 312
Darrell Armstrong 0.281 # 313

The Mavs should be building around Harris, Howard and Nowitzki – everyone else is expendable. They should draft accordingly, looking for a future backcourt mate for Harris or someone that can score in the post alongside Nowitzki.