Cap Situation

With Amare Stoudemire’s extension kicking in, the Suns are on the books for over $62 M next season. Stoudemire’s knee will be key to the long-term success of the franchise. If he’s unable to return to pre-injury form, his 5-year/$73 M contract will cause a lot of headaches in Phoenix.

Shawn Marion is the team’s highest paid player (3-years/$49 M) and his EPM of .715 is 5th best in the league. Marion does it all, averaging 21.8 points, 11.9 rebounds, 2.0 steals and 1.7 blocks per contest. He also shot 81% from the free throw line and a career high 52% from the field, which is especially impressive considering he has one of the ugliest shots in the league.

When the Suns signed Steve Nash to a 5-year/$65 M, it seemed like a big price to pay for an aging point guard. Two years later, Nash has back-to-back league MVPs, the league’s 9th best EPM (.682), and more importantly, the Suns are a perennial contender in the West. Nash averaged 18.8 points and 10.5 assists this season, while shooting 51% from the field, which is incredible for a guard. He makes the Suns wide-open offensive system go and the team just wouldn’t be the same without him. He’s 32, but his game doesn’t depend on speed, so he should continue to be a great value for the remainder of his 3-year/$35 M contract. (The team has the option for an extra year.)

Atlanta’s decision to negotiate a trade for Joe Johnson instead of just signing the guard to an offer sheet is still a mystery to me. Johnson was a restricted free agent last summer, which means that Phoenix had the right to match any offer for the guard. The Suns were smart – they knew that the Hawks were desperate for Johnson and were willing to give up something to get him. Had the Hawks played it cool, the Suns might have been afraid to match the offer.

Regardless, Phoenix ended up with two first round picks along with Most Improved Player Boris Diaw as compensation – not a bad deal at all. Diaw averaged 13.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists, while shooting 53% from the field, resulting in a stellar EPM of .565. Diaw really came on as the season progressed, averaging 15.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.9 assists after the All-Star break. He also tallied four triple-doubles, and almost had a fifth against the Lakers in the playoffs. That’s not bad for a throw in on the Johnson trade. Diaw is signed for another year at $1.8 M. After that, the Suns will have to pony up to keep him around.

Another valuable offseason acquisition was Raja Bell. Bell has four years and $19 M remaining on his contract and is a great deal at that price. He is the team’s best perimeter defender and he shoots the three at a 44% clip. He does a little bit of everything, averaging 14.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. The other offseason acquisition, Kurt Thomas, has not worked out as well. He has two years and $16 M remaining on his contract, and while his EPM (.517) is impressive, he missed 29 regular season games and the playoffs with a broken foot.

The Suns’ other major contributor, Leandro Barbosa is entering the final year of his rookie contract ($1.7 M) so Phoenix will need to decide if he is in their long-term plans. The Suns should keep him, but he might turn out to be too expensive for a bench player.

Offseason Blueprint

There have been some rumors flying around about the Suns trading off some assets to move up in the draft, but the team would be wise just to limit their moves to tweaks instead of trying to overhaul the roster. Imagine a front line of Marion, Diaw and Stoudemire, with Nash and Bell in the backcourt, and Barbosa and Kurt Thomas coming off the bench. That’s a pretty scary lineup.

The team should be very careful when negotiating with free agent Tim Thomas. Even though he’s a perfect fit for the Suns’ system, he has been a career underachiever and hasn’t been able to earn his contract for the last several years. Thomas realizes that he was given a second chance with the Suns, so he might be willing to sign a cheap deal to continue to play for a winner. I wouldn’t pay him more than $5 M per season for a maximum of three years.

Shawn Marion is another question mark. Leading up to the draft, he’s being mentioned in a lot of trade rumors. One has him going to Chicago for Tyson Chandler and the #2 pick. While the pick is nice, I don’t know why the team would want to take on Chandler’s bloated contract. Despite all the personal and team success, Marion doesn’t seem completely happy with his role on the Suns. Last season, he thought that Stoudemire was given too much credit for the team’s resurgence. This season, he said that he should in the mix for MVP and felt slighted at the media’s snub. Personally, I think it’s crazy to be worried about such things when you and your team are on the verge of a championship.

Phoenix has the #21 and #27 picks in the draft and NBADraft.net projects them to take PG Kyle Lowry and PF Josh Boone, though the team will probably package the two picks to move up to get a more coveted player. The team is pretty loaded with talent and has no glaring needs. The main thing is that they need to find a player that fits their system, so first and foremost, he needs to be able to run.

Phoenix’ EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Shawn Marion 0.715 # 5
Steve Nash 0.682 # 9
Boris Diaw 0.565 # 31
Kurt Thomas 0.517 # 58
Leandro Barbosa 0.432 # 138
Eddie House 0.429 # 140
Tim Thomas 0.415 # 158
James Jones 0.398 # 185
Raja Bell 0.370 # 236
Brian Grant 0.351 # 262

The team should stand pat and wait for the return of Amare Stoudemire. If they can re-sign Tim Thomas to a cheap deal, that would give them an eight-player rotation that could compete with any team in the league, making them one of the favorites to hoist the championship trophy this time next summer.