Cap Situation

After the trade that sent Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto (for the expiring contracts of Eric Williams and Matt Bonner), the Spurs are still on the books for almost $60 M next season. But with the trade, the team created some cap relief next summer, when they’ll only be committed to about $53 M in payroll for the 2007-08 season.

The Spurs are in great shape going forward. Injuries to Tim Duncan this season made him seem older than he is (30) and he proved in the playoffs (26 points, 11 rebounds, 57% shooting) that he’s still one of the best players in the world. He had the league’s 12th best EPM (.661) and with four years and $79 M remaining on his contract, he’ll be a Spur for the foreseeable future.

Tony Parker is the team’s second-highest player, and with five years and almost $58 M remaining on his contract, he is a very good value at point guard. This season, he shot an amazing 55% from the field en route to 19 points per game. You’d like to see more than six assists per game, but his EPM (.534) was 7th best at his position.

Manu Ginobili missed 17 games due to injury, and was hobbled in most of the games he did play. Still, his EPM (.555) was 5th amongst shooting guards, so when he’s on the court, he’s extremely valuable. He is signed for four more years at the tune of $38 M, so the Spurs have their best three players signed thru the 2009-10 season. When all three are healthy, the Spurs are the team to beat.

Bruce Bowen is the team’s best perimeter defender and with two years and almost $8 M remaining on his contract, he’s a pretty good deal. His EPM (.280) isn’t impressive, but defensive stoppers don’t get any credit in that statistic.

The team has Michael Finley signed for two more seasons at a total of $6 M, so the Spurs have all kinds of value on their roster. That’s what happens when guys want to play for you because they know they’ll have a shot at a ring. In fact, the team’s only suspect deal is the two years and $11 M remaining on Brent Barry’s contract. That’s too much to be spending on a guy who only plays 17 minutes a game and isn’t all that effective (.412) when he does play.

Offseason Blueprint

Now that Nesterovic is gone, the chances of the team re-signing free agent Nazr Mohammed have increased. Mohammed was effective (EPM=.513) when he played, but at an average of only 17 minutes, it doesn’t seem like the team is committed to him. The Spurs need someone to play 20 minutes at center alongside Duncan, and they are running out of big bodies. It seems like the team was ready to let Mohammed go, but with the Nesterovic trade, it’s not a done deal.

The Spurs are only getting older. Finley, Robert Horry and Barry are well past their primes. The team needs some young blood to compliment their stars, giving them energy off the bench. If they can’t acquire anyone like that via trades, they could use their mid-level money on a reasonably priced free agent. Jared Jeffries would go a long way to replacing Robert Horry’s length, while John Salmons would provide the energy that Finley is losing. Melvin Ely is a big player who could play alongside Duncan. All three are restricted, so it may be difficult to pry these players from their respective teams.

On the unrestricted market, I think Speedy Claxton could play behind Parker and Ginobili, while Joel Przybilla would be a nice fit alongside Duncan, though he’ll probably be too expensive.

San Antonio’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Tim Duncan 0.661 # 12
Emanuel Ginobili 0.555 # 35
Tony Parker 0.534 # 44
Nazr Mohammed 0.513 # 60
Robert Horry 0.416 # 156
Beno Udrih 0.413 # 159
Brent Barry 0.412 # 160
Radoslav Nesterovic 0.386 # 210
Michael Finley 0.343 # 274
Nick Van Exel 0.315 # 295
Bruce Bowen 0.280 # 314

Unfortunately, the Spurs do not have a first round pick in the draft. San Antonio doesn’t need to do anything in free agency. Even if they stand pat, they’ll still be one of the top teams next season. But they should consider adding some athleticism to give them a better shot at getting past the Mavs in the West.