Cap Situation

The Los Angeles Clippers, longtime laughingstock of the NBA, finally got over the hump this season and made it to the Western Conference semifinals, eventually losing to the Phoenix Suns in seven games. If not for a couple of brainfarts in Game 5 (Sam Cassell’s eight second call and the team letting Raja Bell get open for a three to force overtime), the Clippers would have won the series. Regardless, it was a successful season and the team is in good shape heading into the offseason as they are only on the books for $42 M next year.

Elton Brand gets the biggest bite of that pie, and is set to make $46 M over the next three years. With an EPM of .727 (#3 in the league), he’s a great deal at that price. A career 20-point scorer, Brand upped his average to 24.7 and for the sixth time in seven years, averaged 10 or more rebounds. And for the fifth consecutive year, he averaged two or more blocks per game. Brand is simply one of the best players in the league and the Clippers have him locked up for three more years. To think, the Chicago Bulls traded him away after back-to-back 20/10 seasons.

Cuttino Mobley is the team’s second-highest player, and is set to make $35 M over the next four years. I still question the team’s decision to let Bobby Simmons go and to bring in Mobley, but he played okay, averaging 14.3 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game. His shooting percentage (43%), three point percentage (34%) and EPM (.373) leave something to be desired, but he’s not a bad deal for the price.

Corey Maggette is set to make $24 M over the next three years. The team offered up Maggette in exchange for Ron Artest during the season, but the Pacers called off the trade due to Corey’s foot injury. Maggette’s feelings got hurt and, during the playoffs, he was under the impression that he wouldn’t be back with the team. Considering that he was second in the league (to Dwayne Wade) in free throw attempts per minute (.271), the Clippers would be crazy to trade him away. The only thing holding him back from being a star is his tendency to get injured. He had the team’s second highest EPM (.526), and just needs to find a way to stay healthy.

Chris Kaman (EPM=.524) has developed into one of the league’s best centers. He averaged 11.9 points and 9.6 rebounds, while shooting 52% from the field. He has improved every year he’s been in the league and the team should extend his contract this summer. He’s worth $10 M or more per season, and the Clippers would be smart to try to lock him in soon. But there are rumors that the team owner, Donald Sterling, isn’t a big fan. It’s too bad, because Kaman is going to be a Top 5 center for the next 7-8 years.

Shaun Livingston has two more years remaining on his rookie contract at a total cost of $7.9 M. The point guard position is the team’s biggest question mark going into this offseason. Livingston turns 21 in September, so he could use another year or two of seasoning. On the other hand, he’s probably capable of running the team now.

Offseason Blueprint

To Cassell or not to Cassell: that is the question. The wily vet wants to play two more years before returning to his home world, and he’d like to retire a Clipper. However, he’s looking for a pay raise from his $6.1 M salary last year. Some say that Cassell was the catalyst for the team’s run in the playoffs and that he deserves a two-year contract. Others say that he’s on the verge of being washed up and that the team shouldn’t invest $16 M or so in a guy that is going to turn 37 at the beginning of the season. Normally, I’d agree with the latter, but I say give Sam the contract, and here’s why…

If the team thinks that Shaun Livingston is their future point guard, then they would be better served signing Cassell for two more seasons, and continue using the two guards as they did last season. Next summer, they would exercise the $4.4 M option on Livingston in 2007-08, while also working out a five-year extension that would probably save the team around $2 M per season for the length of the contract. Why? Livingston’s value would be slightly diminished around the league because – with Cassell’s presence – teams didn’t get to see him run the point for a full season.

Vladimir Radmanovic is also a free agent, but the team shouldn’t re-sign him. He’s always had an inflated opinion of his worth (just ask the folks in Seattle), so he’ll probably be looking for a long-term contract averaging $7-$8 M per year. That’s a high price to pay for a one-dimensional offensive player. Though it is unlikely that the team would want to take on another contract, the Clippers do have the cap space, so a sign-and-trade is a distinct possibility. He’s probably worth an expiring contract along with a protected first round pick.

The Clippers have a great core of young players in Brand, Kaman, Maggette and Livingston and they’d be wise to keep that group together as long as possible. They should keep Maggette and they should sign both Kaman and Livingston to five-year extensions when each player is eligible, which this summer for Kaman, and next summer for Livingston.

The team doesn’t have a first round draft pick this year, but they do have the #34 pick overall. The Clippers have enough talent that GM (of the Year) Elgin Baylor can afford to take the best available player. I’ve been really impressed by Baylor over the last several years – he’s been able to manage the team beautifully while dealing with the league’s most frugal owner.

Notes:

The Clippers’ EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Elton Brand 0.727 # 3
Corey Maggette 0.526 # 49
Chris Kaman 0.524 # 52
Sam Cassell 0.514 # 59
James Singleton 0.468 # 101
Vladimir Radmanovic 0.427 # 141
Cuttino Mobley 0.373 # 227
Zeljko Rebraca 0.373 # 228
Shaun Livingston 0.362 # 248
Quinton Ross 0.257 # 334
Daniel Ewing 0.246 # 342

Brand, Maggette and Kaman make up a monster front line efficiency-wise. Livingston’s numbers aren’t impressive, but he’s only 20 and he still needs some time to mature. In light of Mobley’s mediocre numbers, I sincerely wonder if Baylor regrets letting Bobby Simmons get away last summer for the same money.