Cap Situation

Despite the expiration of the Reggie Miller ($6.1 M) and Scott Pollard ($6.3 M) contracts, the team is still on the hook for $69.6 M next season. The bulk of that payroll goes to the team’s best player, Jermaine O’Neal, who is set to make an average of $20.6 M over the next four seasons. O’Neal is a very talented player and, with an EPM of .607, he would be able to earn this contract – if he could only stay on the court. He has only played 95 games over the last two seasons.

The team’s next best players – Peja Stojakovic (EPM of .460) and Danny Granger (.461) – play basically the same position. Stojakovic came over in the trade that sent Ron Artest to Sacramento. He’s a 29 year-old free agent, so it’s unclear how much he’s worth at this point in his career, especially when there’s another talented small forward on the roster. Stojakovic is too big to play shooting guard, so there is a bit of a logjam at the position.

The team will get some cap relief next season when the contracts of Austin Croshere ($9.6 M, .480) and Jonathan Bender ($7.8 M) come off the books. Croshere was pretty productive in the minutes he received, but he’s only earning half of his salary. Bender is a particularly sore spot for the franchise. He was forced to retire after being unable to recover from a series of knee injuries.

Jamaal Tinsley is signed for five more years at the cost of $34 M, which is pretty pricey considering his EPM (.373) and his inability to stay healthy. The point guard has averaged only 45 games played in the last three seasons. Considering that he’s been outplayed by his backup, journeyman Anthony Johnson (EPM=.395, $2.6 M), Tinsley isn’t looking like a very good deal right now. The team’s other point guard, Sarunas Jasikevicius, is signed for two more years at the cost of $8 M, and needs to improve his shooting from last year’s dismal 40%.

Stephen Jackson has four years and $28 M left on his contract, and while he’s a pretty good scorer (16.4 ppg), his shooting percentage (41%) drags down his EPM to a less than mediocre .365. Jeff Foster’s EPM (.521) is good, mostly due to his hefty 9.2 rpg average in only 25.1 minutes per game, yielding a league-best .363 rebounds per minute. He has three years and $17 M remaining on his contract, which isn’t outrageous considering the price of centers these days.

Offseason Blueprint

I doubt that the Pacers will let an asset like Stojakovic get away without any compensation. That would mean that the team got zilch for Ron Artest. Look for the team to re-sign him and either trade him right away or wait and see how the team does over the first half of the season. Stojakovic has an option to extend his current contract one more year at $8.2 M, but he is expected to opt-out and have an asking price of over $10 M per season.

With O’Neal, Stojakovic and Granger, the team has considerable strength at the forward positions. The focus this offseason should be to improve guard and center play. Since the team is $18 M over the projected cap, they do not have the flexibility required to add a premier free agent. However, they could use their mid-level exception to land Speedy Claxton and then try to move Tinsley for some help in the frontcourt or at shooting guard.
The team has the #17 pick in the draft and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shannon Brown out of Michigan State. The team should pick a shooting guard or a center, unless they feel that the best player on the board surpasses the available players at those positions. Patrick O’Bryant is projected to go much earlier, but if he slips or the Pacers are able to move up, in a couple of years a frontcourt of O’Neal and O’Bryant could be very O’Tough.

The other option is to trade O’Neal while his value is still high. The team could get a high draft pick, but it would be a challenge to get the salaries to match.

Notes:

Indiana’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Jermaine O’Neal 0.607 # 18
Jeff Foster 0.521 # 53
Austin Croshere 0.480 # 89
Danny Granger 0.461 # 109
Peja Stojakovic 0.460 # 111
Scot Pollard 0.453 # 118
David Harrison 0.412 # 162
Anthony Johnson 0.395 # 190
Sarunas Jasikevicius 0.375 # 224
Jamaal Tinsley 0.373 # 231
Stephen Jackson 0.365 # 246
Fred Jones 0.315 # 294

The Pacers are in a tough spot. They could probably retool and make the playoffs the next few years, but they have no real shot of contending unless they are able to add an impact player or two. On the other hand, they could also blow the team up and start the rebuilding process sooner rather than later.