Cap Situation

With a plethora of good players still playing under their rookie contracts, the Chicago Bulls are only on the books for around $31 M (counting the contracts of Tyson Chandler and Othella Harrington). Chicago has done a nice job of rebuilding the franchise after the departures of Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippin. They only made one serious mistake in that span and they’re still paying for it.

In the summer of 2001, the team traded away its best player, Elton Brand, for Chandler, who was then being touted as “the next Kevin Garnett” as a high schooler in Los Angeles. Then-GM Jerry Krause was convinced that Chandler was going to be an elite player, and was willing to part with Brand, who wasn’t exactly a disappointment, averaging 20+ points and 10+ rebounds through his first two seasons, winning co-Rookie of the Year honors in the process.

Last summer, the Bulls re-signed Chandler to a 6-year/$64 M contract, which is a high price to pay for a player that contributes next to nothing offensively. His EPM of .479 is encouraging, but was only 20th amongst centers. He needs to develop some sort of post up game to justify his fat contract. The Bulls desperately need a low post presence and the best post player the team has had in the last 10 years is now tearing it up for the Clippers.

The team’s best backcourt players – Kirk Hinrich (EPM=.449) and Ben Gordon (.397) – are still playing under their rookie contracts, which pay them $3.1 M and $3.9 M, respectively. Both players want to play the point, but Hinrich is more of a traditional setup man (shot to assist ratio of 2.1), while Gordon is more of a shoot-first (4.8) point guard. Both players are pretty good from long range – Gordon shoots at a 42% clip while Hinrich makes 37% of his attempts.

The team’s most efficient player is Andres Nocioni (.521), who really came on towards the end of the season, averaging 17 points and 11 boards in April. He is entering the final year of his contract ($3.0 M) and the team should sign him to an extension this year. Here’s the problem: Luol Deng (.465) plays basically the same position. Deng also played well in April, averaging 18 points and seven boards on 52% shooting. Deng has two more years on his rookie contract totaling $5.9 M.

Along with the Knicks’ first round pick, Mike Sweetney came over in the trade that sent Eddy Curry to New York. Sweetney was quite efficient (.494), but only played 19 minutes a game. The team was hoping that he would develop into a viable low post option, but his 45% shooting isn’t very good for a power forward. He has one year left on his rookie contract at the tune of $2.7 M.

Offseason Blueprint

The trouble with having a lot of young talent is that they don’t have a lot of experience and they’ll expect to get paid at some point. The team has said repeatedly that it wants a veteran, preferably one that can play in the post. Kevin Garnett’s name continues to resurface, and if the Bulls are able to pull of a trade, he would be a wonderful fit. The big problem is trying to match salaries – Garnett is set to make $20 M next season, so the Bulls would have to include Chandler in the deal, and it is doubtful that Minnesota will want to take on his contract. Ben Gordon is the player that the Bulls seem to be the most willing to part with, but he’s got two years left on his deal, so we may not see any big trades in Chicago until next summer. Still, with two first round draft picks and tons of young, talented players, Chicago has all the pieces to execute a big trade – except the big salaries.

Looking through this summer’s free agents, there aren’t really any back-to-the-basket scorers in the group. Al Harrington might be a decent fit, but he’s not that much bigger than Deng, and he isn’t a traditional power forward. The Bulls could make an offer to Melvin Ely, who is a restricted free agent. Ely did a nice job for the Bobcats filling in for Okafor after he got injured. Chris Wilcox is an unrestricted free agent who would also fit pretty well with the young Bulls, though his post moves still need work.

The Bulls have the Knicks’ first round pick, which ended up being the #2 pick overall. NBADraft.net projects them to take Tyrus Thomas, who is a bit of a project for a team that is ready to win now. They seem to be enamored with Brandon Roy, who would be an excellent fit next to Hinrich if the team were able to unload Gordon for help up front. If they choose to go with size, LaMarcus Aldridge is probably the most ready to step in and play, though they’ll have to wait a year or two for his body to completely fill out.

The team also has the #16 pick, and if they were able to move up a few spots, Shelden Williams would make a lot of sense. The team could continue to draft well and develop the talent on their roster, but cap-wise that strategy is going to come to a head in two years. Considering this, I can’t help but feel that there will be major changes in Chicago this summer.

Chicago’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Andres Nocioni 0.521 # 54
Mike Sweetney 0.494 # 78
Tyson Chandler 0.479 # 94
Luol Deng 0.465 # 105
Kirk Hinrich 0.449 # 121
Darius Songaila 0.446 # 125
Malik Allen 0.401 # 181
Ben Gordon 0.397 # 186
Chris Duhon 0.393 # 193
Othella Harrington 0.381 # 215
Jannero Pargo 0.322 # 289

The team needs to make a few decisions – Hinrich or Gordon? Nocioni or Deng? It’s conceivable that Gordon could play shooting guard and Deng could play power forward in an up-tempo offense (like the Suns run), but if the team is not willing to go that route then they need to move some of these guys for help elsewhere. With a young, talented roster and two first round draft picks, the team could turn itself into one of the top teams in the East with a good offseason.