Cap Situation

The Bucks are set to spend $60 M on payroll next season, with the biggest chunk going to Michael Redd, who is signed for five more years at the tune of $79 M. At first glance, this seems like a lot for Redd, but at an EPM of .520, he’s earning his salary. He upped his scoring average to 25.4 points per game, while shooting a respectable 45% from the field. This is especially impressive considering all the attention Redd gets defensively. He’s a good citizen off the court and he’s a hard worker on the court, improving his game each offseason to grow from a second round pick in 2000 to a franchise player and one of the league’s most dangerous shooters.

The team has to be pleased with the play of last year’s #1 overall pick, Andrew Bogut. The seven-foot Australian put up an EPM of .499, #75 in the league and 15th best amongst centers, sharing time with Jamaal Magloire in the middle. He is signed for three more years at a total price of $16 M.

T.J. Ford returned from a frightening spinal cord injury and put up decent (EPM=.403) numbers in his second full season. The team should extend his contract soon while he’s reasonably affordable. If he continues to improve his jumper and his decision-making, he’s going to be devastating. He’s a liability in the post defensively, but the team should study how the Suns use Steve Nash and try to use Ford similarly.

Maurice Williams (.425) is a viable alternative to Ford at the point. The former second round pick has a number of teams interested in trading for him, giving the Bucks a lot of options this offseason. He is only signed for next season ($1.9 M), so the team will have to decide if he is in their long term plans.

Bobby Simmons, yet another second round pick, was signed last offseason and has four years and $38 M remaining on his contract. His EPM (.400) was not particularly impressive, but he always guarded the opposing team’s best wing player, allowing Redd to be more effective on the offensive end. Simmons’ scoring average dropped three points from his last year with the Los Angeles Clippers, but his points per shot attempt actually grew from 1.21 to 1.24, due to his taking twice as many three point shots as he did for the Clippers. Considering he shot 42% from long range, that’s not a bad idea. Simmons will need to improve his game if the Bucks are going to take it to the next level.

Dan Gadzuric is signed for five more years at the cost of $31 M and had the team’s highest EPM (.549), but he only played 12 minutes a game. The team needs to play the high-energy center more, so expect his minutes to increase once the team trades Magloire away.

The team will experience some salary cap relief after this season when the salaries of Calvin Booth ($6.8 M) and Joe Smith ($6.8 M) come off the books. Smith is still a valuable contributor (.508) but at 31 (as of July), it’s unlikely that the team will invest much money to re-sign him.

Offseason Blueprint

Magloire and his $8.3 M salary need to go. Given the dearth of talent at center, he still has quite a bit of value, so the team should look for an athletic power forward who can score in the post. Trading Magloire to his hometown Toronto for Charlie Villanueva makes a lot of sense. Chris Wilcox is another free agent that would be a good fit, but the Bucks would need to execute a sign and trade to land him. The same goes for Al Harrington and Drew Gooden. Another possibility would be trading for Troy Murphy, who is basically expendable now that Ike Diogu is with the Warriors.

The team should try to keep Mo Williams, but they do have another capable backup in Charlie Bell, so if the Bucks can get a quality starter at power forward for Magloire and/or Williams, they should jump on it.

The Bucks traded away their first round draft pick along with Desmond Mason for Magloire. If they’re able to get back into the mid to late first round, guys like Shelden Williams, Cedric Simmons and Josh Boone would make the most sense. In the second round, NBADraft.net projects that Marco Killingsworth will be available when the Bucks pick at #39. He would be a real nice fit with Bogut.

The team is young, but if they are able to keep Ford, Redd, Simmons and Bogut together, while adding a good power forward to the mix, they should continue to improve and should make the playoffs again next season.

Notes:

Milwaukee’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Dan Gadzuric 0.549 # 38
Michael Redd 0.520 # 55
Joe Smith 0.508 # 63
Andrew Bogut 0.499 # 75
Maurice Williams 0.425 # 145
Jamaal Magloire 0.424 # 147
T.J. Ford 0.403 # 176
Bobby Simmons 0.400 # 182
Charlie Bell 0.399 # 183
Toni Kukoc 0.384 # 212
Jiri Welsch 0.301 # 301

With six players in the Top 150, along with T.J. Ford and Bobby Simmons, the Bucks have quite a bit of talent on the roster. Magloire will be traded, and if the team is able to land a good power forward, they’ll be in business.