Cap Situation

Despite missing the playoffs with a 35-47 record, the Sonics have a pretty good team. After trading for Chris Wilcox and Earl Watson, Seattle finished 13-10 over the final two months, which would translate to a 46-36 record over an entire regular season. And the team hasn’t even had a chance to gel.

Seattle is on the books for around $48 M next season, giving the team roughly $4 M in cap space. The team’s best player, Ray Allen, is signed for another four years at the tune of $67 M. With an EPM of .546 (39th in the league), he’s not worth quite that much dough, but he’s probably the best shooter in the league, making him a valuable asset. He averaged a career-high 25 points per game (on 45% shooting, 41% from long range), along with four rebounds and four assists.

Rashard Lewis has another year on his contract ($9.3 M), and then has the option to extend the deal another two years for a total of $21 M. His decision will likely hinge on how well the team plays next season. His EPM of .507 (#67 in the league) makes him a good value for the price.

Earl Watson was a nice mid-season pickup. He’s a tough, defensive-minded player with a decent EPM of .433, and is signed for four more years at a total price of $24 M. Not bad for a combo guard who averaged 12 points, five assists and three boards after the trade brought him to Seattle.

Luke Ridnour improved his numbers to 12 points and seven assists, but still doesn’t shoot the ball all that well (42%). He’s entering the last year of his contract, and the team will soon need to decide if he is in their long term plans.

But the more pressing question is free agent Chris Wilcox. In 29 games with the Sonics, he averaged 14 points and eight boards while shooting 59% from the field, proving that he could step out of the shadow of Elton Brand if he just got minutes. Wilcox and Watson served as catalysts for team’s solid play down the stretch, and it is crucial that the team re-sign him if they hope to build on their late run and contend for a playoff spot next season.

Offseason Blueprint

Like the Knicks, the Sonics are another team that would be best served running the Suns’ up-tempo offense. Ridnour is a poor man’s Steve Nash, while Allen, Lewis and Watson can all light it up from the perimeter. In this system, Wilcox would be an effective center, although he doesn’t pass the ball nearly as well as the Suns’ Boris Diaw does.

The Sonics averaged a league-worst 105.1 points per game last season, but they proved they could simply outscore their opponents late in the season – they allowed 107 points per game during their 13-10 run over the final two months, but scored 109 per game. Ridnour, Allen and Lewis aren’t particularly good defensively, so the Sonics would be better off speeding things up the way the Suns do, taking advantage of the team’s strengths.

The team has the #10 pick, and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shelden Williams. Williams would be a particularly good fit, especially if the Sonics are unable (or unwilling) to re-sign Chris Wilcox. Williams would bring toughness and shot blocking to a team in desperate need such things. He also runs the floor really well for a big man and would be a good fit in the post for a wide-open, up-tempo offense. Since the Sonics are loaded in the backcourt, they should focus on a frontcourt player if Williams is not available at #10. If they want to run Lewis at power forward and Wilcox at center, a small forward like Rodney Carney might make sense.

While the Sonics ran the ball a lot last season, they’d be wise to adopt an even more up-tempo offense, taking advantage of the team’s strengths while limiting their deficiencies. Ridnour should pattern his game after Steve Nash and focus on improving his jump shot as well as practicing awkward (right foot/right hand or left foot/left hand) layups inside. Ridnour’s passing ability and ball handling would make him a nice fit for the Suns’ offense. Wilcox played great (14 points, 11 rebounds) after the trade and, at 23 years old, he’s just getting started. The team needs to make his contract extension their #1 offseason priority.

Seattle’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Chris Wilcox 0.555 # 36
Ray Allen 0.546 # 39
Rashard Lewis 0.507 # 67
Nick Collison 0.479 # 92
Luke Ridnour 0.451 # 119
Robert Swift 0.447 # 124
Earl Watson 0.433 # 137
Danny Fortson 0.408 # 171
Johan Petro 0.392 # 196
Damien Wilkins 0.371 # 235
Mikki Moore 0.354 # 258

With seven players in the Top 150 in EPM, there is reason for excitement in Seattle. With his #36 EPM last season (#12 for power forwards), Wilcox will be a bargain for someone in free agency.