The Finals are upon us and we have a star-studded matchup with the Miami Heat squaring off against the Dallas Mavericks. There are lots of subplots to this series – Pat Riley’s controversial offseason acquisitions, Gary Payton’s quest for a ring, Mark Cuban’s courtside antics, pretty much anything Shaq says or does – this matchup has it all. Here’s my breakdown position by position:
GUARDS
Marquee Matchup: Dwayne Wade vs. Jason Terry
I don’t think we’ll actually see Terry cover Wade much in the series, but Terry’s offense will be crucial in offsetting Wade’s game. Terry has been up and down in the playoffs (17.8 ppg on 43% shooting) and the Mavs will need him to be more consistent in order to keep Wade working defensively. And the Mavs need his points to take the pressure off of Dirk Nowitzki offensively.
Dwayne Wade has been phenomenal in the playoffs, averaging 26.2 points, 6.4 assists and 5.2 rebounds per contest. His 51% shooting (62% against the Pistons) makes it critical that Dallas do everything to try to limit him. If the Mavs are able to keep him in the low 20s and force him into five or more turnovers a game, it will greatly increase their chances of victory. They will throw any number of players at him defensively (Josh Howard, Adrian Griffin, Marquis Daniels, Devin Harris, Terry and even Jerry Stackhouse) and hope than one or more of them stick.
Advantage: Heat
Wildcard Matchup: Gary Payton vs. Devin Harris
Nick Van Exel was unable to handle Devin Harris’ speed and Gary Payton is going to be in the same boat. Harris has been inconsistent in these playoffs, averaging 19.3 points in a four-game stretch against the Spurs, but only managed an average of 9.4 points in the next eight games. Harris is going to need to penetrate when he’s being covered by Payton or Jason Williams because neither player has the speed to hold him.
Meanwhile, Payton brings loads of experience to this series, but it is a far cry from the player he once was. He’s not a particularly good shooter and he doesn’t get an opportunity to post up, where he was so effective for so many years. Pat Riley would be smart to take advantage when Harris is guarding Payton by allowing him to post the inexperienced guard up. This would offset some of the problems Harris is going to present defensively for the Heat.
Advantage: Mavs
FORWARDS
Marquee Matchup: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Udonis Haslem
I know, Antoine Walker is the bigger name, but I don’t foresee Riley putting the defensively-challenged Walker anywhere near Nowitzki. The big German has averaged 28.4 points and 11.9 rebounds per game and is shooting over 49% in these playoffs. Along with Haslem, who might have some problems with Dirk’s quickness, the Heat will probably use their best defender, James Posey, on Nowitzki, hoping to recreate some of the struggles that Nowitzki had with Tracy McGrady in last year’s playoffs. It will be up to Haslem and Posey to try to limit Nowitzki as much as possible.
Advantage: Mavs
Wildcard Matchup: Josh Howard vs. Antoine Walker
Josh Howard is quickly becoming one of the best young small forwards in the game. In 17 playoff games, he’s averaging 17.4 points and 7.2 rebounds per contest. He’s also shooting at a 48% clip making he and Nowitzki one of the most potent forward combos in the league. The Mavs would like to use Howard on Wade, but they need someone to cover Walker, who has averaged 13.2 points and 5.6 rebounds per game in the playoffs, giving the Heat
Advantage: Mavs
CENTERS
Marquee Matchup: Shaquille O’Neal vs. DaSagana Diop/Erick Dampier
Shaq has been strong of late, averaging 20.1 points and 9.6 rebounds per contest. His conditioning will be tested by the tempo of the Mavs, who will look to push the ball at every opportunity. Diop and Dampier will try to limit O’Neal in the post, but they are going to have their hands full with the Diesel. Don’t expect either guy to do much offensively.
Advantage: Heat
Wildcard Matchup: Alonzo Mourning vs. ???
Don’t be surprised to see Avery Johnson play small ball when O’Neal leaves the game, matching Nowitzki up with Mourning. This move should favor Dallas as Mourning doesn’t have the speed to hang with the Mavs on the break. If Johnson chooses to use Diop or Dampier in such situations, Mourning would hold the advantage.
Advantage: ???
COACHING
Avery Johnson vs. Pat Riley
Avery Johnson has done a terrific job since he took over the Mavs, winning Coach of the Year honors in his first full year. He has brought a feistiness to this team that was sorely lacking in the Don Nelson era. He has proven he can make adjustments to help his team win and he has NBA Finals experience from his days with the Spurs. The only knock on the guy is his lack of coaching experience.
Pat Riley is under more pressure than Avery Johnson. Riley made a number of controversial offseason moves when he brought Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and Gary Payton to the team, but so far, he looks like a genius. Though you won’t hear him crow about it until this team wins a ring. Speaking of rings, Riley has four as a head coach, so he is quite familiar with the pressure that comes with the NBA Finals.
Advantage: Heat
PREDICTION
I think this is a very evenly matched series and on a neutral court, I’d give the Heat a slight advantage. The Mavs will try to speed the game up while the Heat will try to slow things down and use Shaq inside. Whichever team does a better job of playing their game will win the series. Considering Dallas will get four games at home, I have to give them the edge – but it’s razor thin.
My pick: Mavs in seven
