Month: May 2006 (Page 6 of 20)

Phoenix 121, Dallas 118 (Suns lead series, 1-0)
When Dallas was up, 114-105, with just 3:43 to play, I’m sure they were feeling pretty good about their chances. But you can’t fall asleep on the Suns, who went on a 16-4 run to close the game, stealing a victory on the road. Steve Nash went on a 10-2 run to start the comeback, then threw a beautiful pass to Shawn Marion for a dunk that gave Phoenix the lead, 117-116, with 0:43 to play. During that span, Phoenix also benefited from a very questionable offensive foul call when Devin Harris was tagged for wiping Nash’s arm off his side as he drove to the hole. Looking at the replay, it should have been a no call or a foul on Nash as it was the Suns guard that first initiated contact on the play. Nevertheless, the Mavs were able to retake the lead, 118-117, with 0:04 to play on a Devin Harris jumper. But the resilient Suns struck back by throwing the ball into Boris Diaw, who caught the ball in the post and was able to score before time expired. Diaw, the league’s Most Improved Player, scored 34 points on 13-23 shooting, while also grabbing six rebounds. Nash had 27 points and a phenomenal 16 assists, while Shawn Marion scored 24 points and grabbed 13 rebounds in the victory. Devin Harris and Dirk Nowitzki led the Mavs with 30 and 25 points, respectively, while Nowitzki also cleared 19 rebounds in the loss.

There were two key injuries that will have an impact on the series. Mavs forward Josh Howard turned his ankle – his prognosis won’t be known until a MRI is conducted. Suns guard Raja Bell strained his calf severely and his return to the series is in serious doubt. I still think the Mavs have the advantage in the series, but they need to find a way to close games out against the feisty Suns.

Game 1: Tonight, 8:30 PM (ET) – TNT

This series seems a little anticlimactic after the two best teams in the West – the Spurs and the Mavs – went on a seven-round tilt for the ages, but the NBA playoff system is what it is. Hopefully, the NBA will fix the quirk in the seeding system that made the Mavericks – who had the second-best record in the conference – the #4 seed in the playoffs, forcing a second-round matchup with the Spurs that should have been the Conference Finals. Regardless, we now get the Mavs/Suns, which promises to be an exciting, up-tempo series.

The Mavs spent the better part of the Spurs series trying to push the ball up court, but they’ll be slowing things down against the Suns. You can’t play Suns ball against the Suns. The pace gets too frenetic and suddenly Phoenix gets all sorts of open three-pointers – next thing you know, you’re down 20. So Dallas will take their time against Phoenix, pushing the ball when they have the advantage but otherwise slowing things down. Along with the usual dose of his top-of-the-key game, look for Dirk Nowitzki to post up a bit more, taking advantage of the size advantage he’ll have over whomever the Suns decide to put on him.

Nowitzki is a matchup nightmare. He’s a seven footer who can shoot the ball from just about anywhere on the court. Making matters worse, he shoots the ball from over his head, making it virtually impossible to block his shot without fouling. Throw in the fact that he has taken on a more aggressive attitude this year and you have one giant German headache. In the playoffs, Nowitzki is playing like the MVP candidate that he is, averaging 29 points (on 52% shooting) and 11 rebounds through the first two rounds.

Jason Terry has stepped his game up in the postseason, averaging 19 points, four assists and three boards thus far. More importantly, he gives Avery Johnson another player to use in the clutch if Nowitzki is double- or triple-teamed. Josh Howard, who was a late first-round draft pick in 2003, provides steadiness on the defensive end while also showing some scoring punch (16 ppg) offensively. The question is – who is going to cover Steve Nash? Those duties will probably go to the Mavs’ quickest player, Devin Harris. His play has been inconsistent in the postseason, but he is fast enough to stay with Nash defensively.

The Suns aren’t going to change their gameplan – they want to push, push and push some more. Phoenix has a ton of firepower with six Suns averaging 14+ points per game in the playoffs, led by Shawn Marion and Steve Nash, who are averaging 22 and 20 ppg, respectively. Nash is also passing the ball well, averaging over 10 assists per game. The league’s Most Improved Player, Boris Diaw, has stepped up his scoring, averaging 16 points along with six assists and six rebounds per game in the postseason.

Avery Johnson might start Erick Dampier or DaSagana Diop, but he will more likely go small with Nowitzki at center. Nowitzki would have his hands full covering Marion, so Diaw or Tim Thomas will be a much better matchup. There really isn’t anyone for Dampier or Diop to guard, so the Mavs would be better off giving those minutes to Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels or the defensive-minded Adrian Griffin.

The two teams split their season series, so I expect this series to be a good one. I think Dallas has the personnel advantage, but they might be a bit hungover after the San Antonio series. On the other hand, Phoenix had to deal with two seven-game series in the first two rounds, so Dallas is probably a bit more rested. The Mavs have home court advantage and I think that will be the difference in the series.

Portland fans would probably like to forget it, but the Blazers really shot themselves in the foot when they traded out of the #3 pick in the 2005 draft, passing on an opportunity to select future ROY Chris Paul and instead drafted Martell Webster at #6. Webster may turn out to be a fine player, but he’s light years behind Paul, who would have given Portland a floor leader and a reason for hope.

Cap Situation

As it stands, the Blazers are on the books for $59.5 M next season, which is roughly $7 M over the projected cap of $52 M. Unfortunately, their best player, Zach Randolph ($12.0 M) wants out due to his relationship with HC Nate McMillan, and their most efficient player per minute (EPM), center Joel Przybilla (.482) is a free agent. Darius Miles also wants to be traded, and Portland should do everything they can to get rid of him. In fact, the team had an opportunity to trade Miles and the monster contract of Theo Ratliff (2-yrs/$23.3 M) for Penny Hardaway, whose $15.8 M salary would have come off the books this summer, giving Portland around $12 M of cap space. Instead they are cap-strapped for another year and Miles wants out.

Offseason Blueprint

Portland has little flexibility and it doesn’t look possible that the team will be a winner next season. Randolph is the team’s best player and the franchise needs to convince him to stay. If that doesn’t work, they need to trade him for talent and/or expiring contracts.

It would be nice to re-sign Przybilla, but even at an EPM of .482, he’s only the #18 center, and the team shouldn’t offer anything more than $3-4 M per year. The team has committed to Sebastian Telfair at point guard, but Steve Blake is actually the more efficient floor general. They aren’t going to win any games, but the team should play Telfair and Webster and see if they develop. That way, they’ll know what they’ve got going into the summer of ’07 when they are expected to have around $20 M in cap space, not counting any signings this summer.

As insult to injury, the Blazers had the best chance (25%) to land the top pick in the 2006 draft, but watched as three teams leap-frogged them, leaving them with the #4 overall pick. There has been much discussion about the possibility of the Blazers drafting Adam Morrison, due to his regional ties and the effect his presence would have on season ticket orders. I’m not sure how Morrison will translate to the pro level, but he is a tough guy to defend. Unfortunately, there are a lot of questions about his defense and whether he’ll be able to cover the athletic small forwards that he’ll see on a nightly basis in the NBA. Morrison is a fiery competitor and he’ll immediately become a crowd favorite. If the Blazers are able to keep Randolph and trade Miles, Morrison should fit in a lineup alongside Telfair and Webster. There are three power forwards -LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrea Bargnani and Tyrus Thomas – that are projected to go in the Top 5 along with point guard Randy Foye, who is an option if the team has already given up on Telfair. Aldridge could play some center, but it is unlikely that he’ll be there at #4. Bargnani and Thomas are more traditional power forwards, which is the same position Randolph plays. So the team’s draft will depend on his status.

McMillan is a tough, defensive-minded coach and his presence is good for the long-term health of the franchise. Fans need to be patient with him, it’s not his fault that the team is in the salary cap situation that they’re in. Fingers can be pointed directly at Trail Blazers President Steve Patterson and GM John Nash.

The team needs to draft better – they passed on Paul, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye and Ike Diogu for Webster in 2005, after passing on Al Jefferson and Josh Smith in favor of Telfair in 2004. With two good drafts in the next two years, the team should be able to add some players via free agency next summer and start to contend again for the playoffs. Given the franchise’s track record over the past few years, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Notes:

EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

348 players averaged greater than 10 minutes/game AND played 20 games or more.

EFF/Min = Total Efficiency/Minutes Played = EPM

Blazers Leaders in EFF/Min (league average = .441)

Player EPM Rank
Joel Przybilla 0.482 # 88
Zach Randolph 0.465 # 106
Theo Ratliff 0.403 # 177
Steve Blake 0.389 # 201
Viktor Khryapa 0.386 # 207
Brian Skinner 0.386 # 208
Travis Outlaw 0.372 # 232
Juan Dixon 0.369 # 239
Jarrett Jack 0.360 # 250
Sebastian Telfair 0.348 # 267
Darius Miles 0.345 # 270
Martell Webster 0.320 # 290

With just one player, Joel Przybilla, in the Top 100 in EPM, the Blazers might be the league’s most inefficient team, which would explain why they were the worst team in the league last season. With EPMs of just .348 and .320, Telfair and Webster haven’t proven they are NBA starters. Webster is still young, but Telfair needs to make strides next season, which will be his third in the league.

Miami 91, Pistons 86 (Heat lead, 1-0)
It seems like there’s always a debate when a team has a long layoff between playoff series – is it better to get the rest or will the team get rusty? The fact is the team with the layoff usually wins Game 1. Such was the case with the Heat, who jumped out to an 11-0 lead to start the game. Detroit fought back, eventually leading by as many as five with 4:19 remaining in the third quarter. But the Heat went on a 14-1 run over the next six minutes, giving them an eight point lead with 10:08 to play in the game. The Pistons were never able to get closer than four points the rest of the way. Dwayne Wade was extremely efficient for the Heat, scoring 25 points on 9-11 shooting from the field. Shaquille O’Neal had a quiet 14/8 while Antoine Walker proved his worth, scoring 17 points and grabbing seven rebounds. Udonis Haslem had the strangest line of the night – zero points (on 0-7 shooting), nine rebounds and five fouls. Meanwhile, the Pistons looked flat at the start – it actually looked like they were the ones who were rusty. Detroit shot 38% from the field (compared to Miami’s 56%) and just 24% from 3-point range. Rip Hamilton (22 points) and Chauncey Billups (19 points) led the way for the Pistons, but shot a combined 15-41 (37%) from the field. This loss in Game 1 makes Game 2 a must-win situation for Detroit. They do not want to head back to Miami down 0-2.