Month: May 2006 (Page 5 of 20)

Cap Situation

While a vast majority of NBA teams hover at or above the salary cap ($49.5 M), the Charlotte Bobcats are the model of efficiency with a payroll of $33.3 M last season and are only on the books for $23.7 M in 2006-07, giving them around $30 M in cap space this summer.

Gerald Wallace is a huge bargain in his current contract (2-yrs/$11.5 M) and, at .584, he has the 23rd highest efficiency per minute (EPM) in the league. To put things in perspective, only Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Alonzo Mourning and Chris Paul have better EPMs for the money, and they’re all either still playing for their rookie contracts or, in the case of Mourning, taking the minimum to try to win a ring. Wallace is also the only player other than David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon to average two or more steals and two or more blocks per game for a season. That’s pretty impressive.

Emeka Okafor missed all but 26 games with a severely sprained ankle, making this season a complete disappointment for the former #2 pick. In the games that he did play, his EPM was .488, good for #82 in the league. The Bobcats desperately need him to come back at full strength as he’s shown that he’s a 14/10 guy when healthy.

Brevin Knight is another bargain, with an EPM of .500 at a very reasonable price (2-yrs/$8.6 M). Ray Felton, Charlotte’s first round draft pick last year, came on after the All-Star break, averaging 17 points and eight assists per game. He needs to improve his shooting (39%) if he wants to be a star. Hopefully, he’s locked in a gym somewhere in North Carolina with a shooting coach as I type this.

Offseason Blueprint

The team is set at point guard, small forward and Okafor can play either power forward or center. Their biggest need is at shooting guard and they could use an upgrade at either power forward or center. There aren’t very many big names in free agency at those positions, but one player that would help this team is Jason Terry. He’s a little small for a shooting guard (6’2”), but he can really fill it, making up for the inaccuracy of Knight and Felton. And he’s only 28, so he still has a few good years left in him. The other option is Nene, if the club doesn’t see Primoz Brezec as a long-term solution at center. Nene has all kinds of potential, but has been injured the past two seasons and his future is somewhat cloudy.

If they can get Terry for a reasonable price – say $32 M over four years – it would be worth it. Otherwise, they should stand pat and wait for the summer of ’07 when there are a number of stars that could potentially hit the market. With all of the supporting players in Charlotte, it would be a perfect place for a star to land, immediately upgrading the Bobcats to a playoff-caliber team.

The Bobcats have the #3 pick and they can go several different directions with the selection. LaMarcus Aldridge or Tyrus Thomas would look good alongside Okafor, if they don’t mind running one of those three at center. With Wallace on the roster, I wouldn’t take small forwards Adam Morrison or Rudy Gay, who each have holes (defensive speed and heart, respectively) in their game. I’d take a hard look at Washington’s Brandon Roy, who at 6’5” would probably be a great fit as the team’s starting shooting guard. If the team doesn’t love Roy, Andrea Bargnani is being hyped as the “next Dirk Nowitzki” – which he’ll no doubt fail to be – but he might be a nice frontline prospect for the franchise.

The club does need to make a decision on Melvin Ely, who had an EPM of .454, which was good for #117 in the league. He’s a capable frontline backup and is probably worth $4-$5 M a year. If the team decides to draft Roy, Morrison or Gay, it would be a good idea to sign Ely as well to bolster the frontcourt. If they draft Aldridge or Thomas, signing Ely becomes less of an issue. They also need to consider that Sean May only played 23 games, but was fairly effective (.501) in those minutes.

The Bobcats should simply stay the course. They will have the opportunity next summer to show their fans that they are committed to building a winner by re-signing Wallace and signing a star in free agency. Their draft picks (Okafor, Felton) have turned out pretty well, so they just need another solid pick and they’ll be poised for a big improvement in the 2007-08 season.

Notes:

EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

348 players averaged greater than 10 minutes/game AND played 20 games or more.

EFF/Min = Total Efficiency/Minutes Played = EPM

Charlotte’s Leaders in EFF/Min (league average = .441)

Player EPM Rank ’06-’07 Salary ($M)
Gerald Wallace 0.584 # 23 5.3
Sean May 0.501 # 71 1.7
Brevin Knight 0.500 # 72 5.0
Emeka Okafor 0.488 # 82 4.3
Primoz Brezec 0.457 # 114 2.7
Melvin Ely 0.454 # 117 3.3
Jake Voskuhl 0.418 # 154 0.0
Raymond Felton 0.411 # 163 3.1

With six players in the top 120, along with Felton, there is reason for optimism in Charlotte. This team just needs another good draft pick and a big free agent to contend for the playoffs in 2007-08.

Detroit 92, Miami 88 (series tied, 1-1)
Was there really any doubt that Detroit would win Game 2? It was basically a must-win for the Pistons, while the Heat probably thought that they had done what they needed to do on the road in Game 1. Desperation will win a lot of games in evenly matched series. The Pistons built an 18-point lead in the third quarter, but the Heat rallied and fought back to within two late in the fourth quarter. But Chauncey Billups made his free throws to seal the win. Tayshaun Prince continues to be the most consistent Detroit player, posting 24 points and 11 rebounds. It’s quite ironic that Prince was the only Piston starter not to be named to the All-Star team, yet he’s playing the best ball in the postseason. Dwayne Wade scored 32 points in the loss, while Shaquille O’Neal added 21/12. The Heat showed surprising resiliency, fighting back from an 18-point deficit, while the Pistons just don’t look right to me. Prior to the game, ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith reported that during Game 7 of the Cleveland series, he noticed that the Detroit players would not slap hands with Flip Saunders as they came out of the game. He went on to say that he believes that something is missing between Saunders and his team. I originally picked Detroit in the series, but their body language has me concerned. The Heat just look more hungry right now. The next two games in Miami are extremely important. If the Heat can go up 3-1, I think they’ll be able to put Detroit away in Game 6.

I bet a lot of fans in the Big Apple rejoiced in 2003 when the Knicks fired GM Scott Layden. It’s too bad that they hired Isiah Thomas to replace him. Since then, Thomas has made a series of bad moves (mixed in with a few mediocre moves and a couple of good draft picks) and now has a roster loaded with overpaid, underachieving players.

Cap Situation

The team is on the hook for around $133 M next season – no, that’s not a typo. The silver lining is that the contracts of Allan Houston ($20.7 M), Jalen Rose ($16.9 M), Maurice Taylor ($9.8 M), Shandon Anderson ($7.2 M) and Jerome Williams ($6.4 M) all come off the books next summer at a total potential savings of $61 M, bringing New York’s commitments down to around $74 M for the 2007/08 season. But that’s still way too much to pay for the second-worst record in the league.

Complicating matters is a backcourt consisting of three players – Stephon Marbury (3-years/$60.3 M), Steve Francis (3-years/$48.7 M) and Jamal Crawford (5-years/$43.2 M) – that will combine for a total $40.6 M in salary next season. Considering that the trio hasn’t shown the ability to co-exist in Larry Brown’s system, something has to give. And right now, it looks like it will be Brown.

Offseason Blueprint

As good of a coach that Brown is, the roster does not fit his style – hard-nosed defense and mistake-free, team-oriented offense – and the Knicks should let him go pursue other opportunities. They will try to unload Francis or Marbury this offseason, and if they can swindle some unsuspecting franchise out of an expiring contract along with a first round draft pick or a nice prospect, more power to them. Even if they are able to find a taker, history has shown us that Thomas doesn’t care much about his cap situation, and it’s just as likely that he’ll take on more long-term contracts, which will only make matters worse.

Knicks’ owner Jim Dolan should buyout both Thomas and Brown, and hire Mike Iavaroni, the Suns top assistant, to bring Mike D’Antoni’s wide-open style to the Big Apple. If – and this is a BIG “if” – Iavaroni can get Francis, Marbury and Crawford to buy into the Suns “share and share alike” philosophy, the Knicks might be able to win 40+ games. They could start Marbury and Francis together in the backcourt and run Crawford or Quentin Richardson at small forward. The other would come off the bench like Leandro Barbosa does in Phoenix. Throw one of last year’s top rookies, Channing Frye, out there at center and all the team needs is an athletic power forward to do some of what Shawn Marion does for the Suns. Dolan should find a detail-oriented GM, one who will look at the long-term impact of trading away draft picks and expiring contracts. But it looks like Thomas might take over the coaching duties, which would, barring a miracle, end in disaster.

Regarding this year’s draft, Thomas traded the Knicks’ first round pick away for Eddy Curry’s questionable ticker. Moreover, the pick is not lottery protected, so the Bulls ended up with New York’s #2 overall pick. What’s lost in all of this is that Chicago has the right to swap first round picks next year as well. Considering that the Bulls are a playoff team and the Knicks aren’t, the Curry trade is looking worse and worse as time goes on.

The Knicks do have the Spurs’ first round pick from the 2005 trade that sent Nazr Mohammed to San Antonio. If they go with my blueprint, they should draft an athletic power forward to can run the floor and shoot the ball. Josh Boone seems like a good fit, or they can run David Lee at the four. Give Lee 35-40 minutes and he can give you 12/9. If they can get Marbury and Francis to slash and dish to create open shots for each other and for Crawford and Richardson, the Knicks might actually improve to borderline mediocre.

Anything’s better than being a laughing stock, right?

Notes:

EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

348 players averaged greater than 10 minutes/game AND played 20 games or more.

EFF/Min = Total Efficiency/Minutes Played = EPM

Knicks Leaders in EFF/Min (league average = .441)

Player EPM Rank ’06-’07 Salary ($M)
Channing Frye 0.531 # 48 2.3
Jackie Butler 0.497 # 77 –
David Lee 0.483 # 85 0.9
Eddy Curry 0.479 # 91 8.8
Stephon Marbury 0.427 # 142 17.3
Steve Francis 0.418 # 153 15.1
Jamal Crawford 0.403 # 178 7.2
Qyntel Woods 0.393 # 194 –
Jalen Rose 0.378 # 220 16.9
Malik Rose 0.367 # 240 7.8
Nate Robinson 0.353 # 261 1.2
Maurice Taylor 0.333 # 282 9.8
Quentin Richardson 0.300 # 302 8.0

Interestingly, the team’s four most efficient players are all big men. The franchise shouldn’t even consider trading Channing Frye this summer, but he is the only player on the team that is untouchable.

The Oregonian’s Jason Quick interviewed Portland Trail Blazers President Steve Patterson about the franchise’s performance in the past few years. The two get into an interesting back-and-forth about Patterson’s decision to resign Darius Miles at a price that was perceived to be higher than market value.

JQ: Darius, nobody makes an offer for him.
SP: That is untrue and you guys have constantly, constantly said that and that’s not true.
JQ: Nobody filed a…
SP: Denver was ready to pay him.
JQ: They didn’t and it expired…the date expired
SP: No they were ready to pay him.
JQ: July 15th
SP: They would have done the deal…in a trade before or they would have done the deal straight up.
JQ: The amount for Darius…
SP: You guys constantly said that nobody…
JQ: No team filed an offer to the NBA office where you guys had to match. You guys did not have to match any offer filed to the NBA. That is fact. That’s why we reported it.
SP: That doesn’t mean someone wasn’t willing to do it.
JQ: Then tell us that. I mean…
SP: I’ve said it every time. If you talked to Kiki he would tell you the same thing.
JQ: The fact is that you didn’t have to because nobody made an offer to him.
SP: No, you can look at it and let it play out the one year and then you’re in the environment where the guys coming off a good year. Maggette’s young, 22-years-old. You know there’s somebody out there that’s willing to pay. You know they’ll have the cap room the following summer and you don’t know what the rules are the following summer. Whether you’ll have a right to match for whatever there is to match. And so, you have to look at it with the information you have at that point of time. You know you have a bidder. In this league you only need one bidder. The league golden rule. And generally it becomes more expensive letting guys go to full free agency.
JQ: The amount you paid. How did you come to that? I know in talking to Jeff all summer, they were looking at a something, six million dollars. Even Darius said at the time it was more money than he’d thought he could get. How’d you come to the average?
SP: That what the market was out there. And, you’re talking a difference of a million dollars a year. Doesn’t make a big difference.

This is a nice companion piece to my offseason blueprint for the Blazers.