Cap Situation
With Antonio Davis ($13.9 M) and Lamond Murray ($5.3 M) coming off the books, the Raptors have a payroll of $38.3 M, giving them roughly $14 M in cap space this summer. Chris Bosh had a stellar EPM of .628 – which was the 14th best in the league – is entering the last year of his rookie contract.
Charlie Villanueva is signed for three more years and his EPM of .480 (in his rookie year) was 90th in the league. He plays basically the same position as Bosh, but the two players have proven that they can be effective when they play together. Morris Peterson stepped up his game once Jalen Rose was traded, averaging 21 ppg after the All-Star break, but only shot 43% from the field for the season. His EPM of .404 (#174 in the league) is not awe-inspiring, but his $4.5 M salary makes him a good value.
Toronto’s short-term cap situation will hinge on what the team does with free agent Mike James, who averaged 21 points and six assists per game on a stellar 47% shooting. He was even better after the All-Star break – the guard averaged 25 points and seven assists in the final 28 games of the season.
Offseason Blueprint
The Raptors are on the clock.
Since former Phoenix executive Bryan Colangelo took over as the GM in Toronto, Bosh has indicated that he would like to re-sign with the Raptors. Colangelo’s intent seems to be to build the team in the mold of the Suns, and it appears that this idea appeals to Bosh. The team’s number one priority should be to sign Bosh to an extension, so the franchise might want to avoid spending a lot of money this summer if they want to stay under the cap in 2007-08, as he’ll command $14 M or more in annual salary.
Mike James had a terrific year, and his EPM of .509 was #10 in the league among point guards. The two knocks on James are his age (31 in June) and that he has a reputation of being a shoot-first point guard. Colangelo would like to find a pass-first point guard like Steve Nash. As a comparison, James’ shot-to-assist ratio was 2.7 compared to Nash’s 1.3. Those numbers are a little unfair due to the talent present on the Suns roster. James was leading a team with a lot less firepower and would have probably taken fewer shots and tallied more assists had the other perimeter players around him been more efficient shooters.
It would be unwise to sign James to a deal longer than three or four years, but he would be a good deal at an average of $6-$7 M for that span. The guard is an asset, so if the club is not sold on him, they should try to negotiate a sign-and-trade with another franchise to get something in return. James has expressed an interest in going to Houston – where he’d be a great fit – but the Rockets have already traded him away once (for Rafer Alston) so it’s unclear if he’s even wanted there.
Colangelo might have some trouble finding a pass-first point guard in free agency. Here are the shot-to-assist ratios of the top free agent point guards, with their EPMs in parenthesis:
Jason Terry – 3.6 (.429)
Sam Cassell – 2.3 (.514)
Speedy Claxton – 2.2 (.424)
Bobby Jackson – 3.9 (.386)
Marcus Banks – 2.1 (.402)
Given those numbers, Banks or Claxton might be a good option. Banks should also be the most affordable, while Claxton will probably expect a salary in the $4 M range.
The Raptors have the first pick in the draft, and the rumor mill has them selecting Andrea Bargnani, who basically plays the same position as Villanueva. They could package Villanueva in a trade with another player and try to coax Jamal Magloire from the Bucks. Magloire is a Toronto native, so he might be a good fit, although he doesn’t strike me as a player you’d acquire if you are trying to build a Suns-like team.
It’s going to take a year or three before Colangelo can make Toronto a winner again. I’m sure they regret not taking Andre Iguodala instead of Rafael Araujo in the 2004 draft, but their draft picks in 2003 and 2005 – Bosh and Villanueva, respectively – turned out pretty well, giving the franchise ammunition for improvement.
Notes:
Toronto’s EPM by player
Player EPM League Rank
Chris Bosh 0.628 # 14
Mike James 0.509 # 62
Charlie Villanueva 0.480 # 90
Loren Woods 0.472 # 98
Matt Bonner 0.409 # 168
Morris Peterson 0.404 # 174
Pape Sow 0.380 # 217
Jose Calderon 0.356 # 256
Joey Graham 0.351 # 263
Antonio Davis 0.308 # 299
Rafael Araujo 0.272 # 322
