Cap Situation

With Al Harrington coming off the books this summer, the Hawks have a payroll of roughly $30 M, which gives the team around $22 M of cap space this offseason. Last summer, the Hawks traded away Boris Diaw and two (protected) first round draft picks to the Phoenix Suns for Joe Johnson in the sign-and-trade deal that landed Johnson a hefty five-year/$70 M contract. Given Diaw’s steadily improving play throughout in the season, this trade was not looking particularly good for the Hawks, but Johnson’s play after the All-Star break – 21 points, seven assists, four rebounds – comes close to justifying his big contract.

Last summers’ other regretful move was the franchise’s decision to pass on Chris Paul in favor of Marvin Williams in the draft. Paul ran away with Rookie of the Year honors and would have been a great fit for a team in desperate need of a point guard. Who knows, Williams may turn out to be the better player, but right now, with a team full of forwards, it’s hard not to second-guess that decision – I’m sure many in Atlanta are doing the same.

Zaza Pachulia was a good offseason signing and his 12 points and eight rebounds are a nice deal for his remaining contract (3-years/$12 M). The team also has Josh Childress and Josh Smith signed for two more years under their original rookie contracts, so there is some talent on Atlanta’s roster.

The franchise would have been in a better situation had they unloaded Al Harrington for a prospect at the point guard or post positions, or for an expiring contract and a first round draft pick. Everyone in the league knew that Harrington was leaving the Hawks this offseason – why not get something for him? As they learned from the Suns, the team could still find a way to parlay Harrington into a player and/or a pick by way of a sign-and-trade with a team without cap space.

Offseason Blueprint

Leaving the Hawks’ mistakes in the rear view mirror for the moment, this franchise basically needs to stand pat and wait for next summer’s free agent crop, when they’ll get more for their money. They could try to upgrade at point guard this summer, which would allow Johnson to play his natural position (off-guard). There are a number of guys available in the free agent pool, from the expensive (Jason Terry, Mike James, Sam Cassell) to the not-so-expensive (Speedy Claxton, Marcus Banks). The first three are scorers, while the latter duo prefer to set their teammates up.

Another rumor that’s going around is a possible sign-and-trade of Harrington for Allen Iverson. Iverson has 3-years/$60 M remaining on his contract, so Atlanta’s cap space would be gone for the foreseeable future. Harrington’s obviously not worth that kind of money, so the Hawks would have to throw in a few other players to make the numbers work, which might be tough to do, considering the disparity and the lack of big salaries on the Atlanta roster. If Philadelphia is interested in Harrington, the Hawks might be better off trying to pry Andre Iguodala (2-years/$5 M), John Salmons (restricted free agent) or even Samuel Dalembert (5-years/$52 M) from the Sixers. It’s true that Iguodala and Salmons are small forwards – not what the Hawks need right now – but they are good players.

Atlanta has the fifth pick in this year’s draft, where they should have an opportunity to draft a good guard, possibly Brandon Roy, Randy Foye or Marcus Williams. Any of those three should work well with Johnson in the backcourt. The team needs to avoid selecting a small forward unless they believe that the player is far and away the best player on the board.

Considering that the draft picks sent to Phoenix in the Johnson trade are lottery protected for a couple of years, the Hawks have some time to turn the team around before feeling the negative effects of that acquisition. Their best bet is to try to get a prospect for Harrington via a sign-and-trade deal and to get a guard in the draft. That way, they should still have enough cap room next summer to sign a star free agent, possibly putting the team back in the playoffs within three years.

Notes:

Atlanta’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Josh Smith 0.471 # 99
Al Harrington 0.467 # 102
Joe Johnson 0.467 # 103
Zaza Pachulia 0.457 # 115
Josh Childress 0.450 # 120
Tyronn Lue 0.411 # 164
Marvin Williams 0.382 # 214
Salim Stoudamire 0.348 # 269
Royal Ivey 0.288 # 310

Even with Harrington’s departure, the Hawks have four players in the Top 120 in Efficiency Per Minute plus the untapped potential of Marvin Williams. They lack a superstar, but if they don’t overpay for immediate help, they should have plenty of cap space to land a star next summer.