Game 1: Tonight, 8:30 PM (ET) – TNT
This series seems a little anticlimactic after the two best teams in the West – the Spurs and the Mavs – went on a seven-round tilt for the ages, but the NBA playoff system is what it is. Hopefully, the NBA will fix the quirk in the seeding system that made the Mavericks – who had the second-best record in the conference – the #4 seed in the playoffs, forcing a second-round matchup with the Spurs that should have been the Conference Finals. Regardless, we now get the Mavs/Suns, which promises to be an exciting, up-tempo series.
The Mavs spent the better part of the Spurs series trying to push the ball up court, but they’ll be slowing things down against the Suns. You can’t play Suns ball against the Suns. The pace gets too frenetic and suddenly Phoenix gets all sorts of open three-pointers – next thing you know, you’re down 20. So Dallas will take their time against Phoenix, pushing the ball when they have the advantage but otherwise slowing things down. Along with the usual dose of his top-of-the-key game, look for Dirk Nowitzki to post up a bit more, taking advantage of the size advantage he’ll have over whomever the Suns decide to put on him.
Nowitzki is a matchup nightmare. He’s a seven footer who can shoot the ball from just about anywhere on the court. Making matters worse, he shoots the ball from over his head, making it virtually impossible to block his shot without fouling. Throw in the fact that he has taken on a more aggressive attitude this year and you have one giant German headache. In the playoffs, Nowitzki is playing like the MVP candidate that he is, averaging 29 points (on 52% shooting) and 11 rebounds through the first two rounds.
Jason Terry has stepped his game up in the postseason, averaging 19 points, four assists and three boards thus far. More importantly, he gives Avery Johnson another player to use in the clutch if Nowitzki is double- or triple-teamed. Josh Howard, who was a late first-round draft pick in 2003, provides steadiness on the defensive end while also showing some scoring punch (16 ppg) offensively. The question is – who is going to cover Steve Nash? Those duties will probably go to the Mavs’ quickest player, Devin Harris. His play has been inconsistent in the postseason, but he is fast enough to stay with Nash defensively.
The Suns aren’t going to change their gameplan – they want to push, push and push some more. Phoenix has a ton of firepower with six Suns averaging 14+ points per game in the playoffs, led by Shawn Marion and Steve Nash, who are averaging 22 and 20 ppg, respectively. Nash is also passing the ball well, averaging over 10 assists per game. The league’s Most Improved Player, Boris Diaw, has stepped up his scoring, averaging 16 points along with six assists and six rebounds per game in the postseason.
Avery Johnson might start Erick Dampier or DaSagana Diop, but he will more likely go small with Nowitzki at center. Nowitzki would have his hands full covering Marion, so Diaw or Tim Thomas will be a much better matchup. There really isn’t anyone for Dampier or Diop to guard, so the Mavs would be better off giving those minutes to Harris, Jerry Stackhouse, Marquis Daniels or the defensive-minded Adrian Griffin.
The two teams split their season series, so I expect this series to be a good one. I think Dallas has the personnel advantage, but they might be a bit hungover after the San Antonio series. On the other hand, Phoenix had to deal with two seven-game series in the first two rounds, so Dallas is probably a bit more rested. The Mavs have home court advantage and I think that will be the difference in the series.
