Portland fans would probably like to forget it, but the Blazers really shot themselves in the foot when they traded out of the #3 pick in the 2005 draft, passing on an opportunity to select future ROY Chris Paul and instead drafted Martell Webster at #6. Webster may turn out to be a fine player, but he’s light years behind Paul, who would have given Portland a floor leader and a reason for hope.

Cap Situation

As it stands, the Blazers are on the books for $59.5 M next season, which is roughly $7 M over the projected cap of $52 M. Unfortunately, their best player, Zach Randolph ($12.0 M) wants out due to his relationship with HC Nate McMillan, and their most efficient player per minute (EPM), center Joel Przybilla (.482) is a free agent. Darius Miles also wants to be traded, and Portland should do everything they can to get rid of him. In fact, the team had an opportunity to trade Miles and the monster contract of Theo Ratliff (2-yrs/$23.3 M) for Penny Hardaway, whose $15.8 M salary would have come off the books this summer, giving Portland around $12 M of cap space. Instead they are cap-strapped for another year and Miles wants out.

Offseason Blueprint

Portland has little flexibility and it doesn’t look possible that the team will be a winner next season. Randolph is the team’s best player and the franchise needs to convince him to stay. If that doesn’t work, they need to trade him for talent and/or expiring contracts.

It would be nice to re-sign Przybilla, but even at an EPM of .482, he’s only the #18 center, and the team shouldn’t offer anything more than $3-4 M per year. The team has committed to Sebastian Telfair at point guard, but Steve Blake is actually the more efficient floor general. They aren’t going to win any games, but the team should play Telfair and Webster and see if they develop. That way, they’ll know what they’ve got going into the summer of ’07 when they are expected to have around $20 M in cap space, not counting any signings this summer.

As insult to injury, the Blazers had the best chance (25%) to land the top pick in the 2006 draft, but watched as three teams leap-frogged them, leaving them with the #4 overall pick. There has been much discussion about the possibility of the Blazers drafting Adam Morrison, due to his regional ties and the effect his presence would have on season ticket orders. I’m not sure how Morrison will translate to the pro level, but he is a tough guy to defend. Unfortunately, there are a lot of questions about his defense and whether he’ll be able to cover the athletic small forwards that he’ll see on a nightly basis in the NBA. Morrison is a fiery competitor and he’ll immediately become a crowd favorite. If the Blazers are able to keep Randolph and trade Miles, Morrison should fit in a lineup alongside Telfair and Webster. There are three power forwards -LaMarcus Aldridge, Andrea Bargnani and Tyrus Thomas – that are projected to go in the Top 5 along with point guard Randy Foye, who is an option if the team has already given up on Telfair. Aldridge could play some center, but it is unlikely that he’ll be there at #4. Bargnani and Thomas are more traditional power forwards, which is the same position Randolph plays. So the team’s draft will depend on his status.

McMillan is a tough, defensive-minded coach and his presence is good for the long-term health of the franchise. Fans need to be patient with him, it’s not his fault that the team is in the salary cap situation that they’re in. Fingers can be pointed directly at Trail Blazers President Steve Patterson and GM John Nash.

The team needs to draft better – they passed on Paul, Charlie Villanueva, Channing Frye and Ike Diogu for Webster in 2005, after passing on Al Jefferson and Josh Smith in favor of Telfair in 2004. With two good drafts in the next two years, the team should be able to add some players via free agency next summer and start to contend again for the playoffs. Given the franchise’s track record over the past few years, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Notes:

EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

348 players averaged greater than 10 minutes/game AND played 20 games or more.

EFF/Min = Total Efficiency/Minutes Played = EPM

Blazers Leaders in EFF/Min (league average = .441)

Player EPM Rank
Joel Przybilla 0.482 # 88
Zach Randolph 0.465 # 106
Theo Ratliff 0.403 # 177
Steve Blake 0.389 # 201
Viktor Khryapa 0.386 # 207
Brian Skinner 0.386 # 208
Travis Outlaw 0.372 # 232
Juan Dixon 0.369 # 239
Jarrett Jack 0.360 # 250
Sebastian Telfair 0.348 # 267
Darius Miles 0.345 # 270
Martell Webster 0.320 # 290

With just one player, Joel Przybilla, in the Top 100 in EPM, the Blazers might be the league’s most inefficient team, which would explain why they were the worst team in the league last season. With EPMs of just .348 and .320, Telfair and Webster haven’t proven they are NBA starters. Webster is still young, but Telfair needs to make strides next season, which will be his third in the league.