Month: November 2005 (Page 6 of 11)

      Waiver Wire Watch: Week 11

      November 15, 2005 /

      I just lost one of my fantasy football leagues by a half point because Donovan McNabb and Mike McMahon couldn’t complete a pass to Brian Westbrook or L.J. Smith during the Eagles’ final two drives. Making matters worse, in the same game, I chose to bench one of my waiver wire recommendations from last week, Sam Gado (who had 108 yards and 3 TDs on Sunday), in favor of my first round pick in the league, Kevin Jones. I also started Smith over McMichael, and would have won with Randy in the game. How’s that for a double-kick to the nuts?

      Let’s see who hot on the wire this week:

      RUNNING BACKS

      J.J. Arrington, ARI – Arrington got twice as many carries as Marcel Shipp against the Lions and also scored, so this may indicate that he’s Denny Green’s choice for the starting job. The Cardinals can’t run, so he’s not all that valuable, but he is a starting RB that will get some opportunities, so if you are desperate at RB, he might be worth a look.

      Heath Evans, NE – Dillon left the game after a single play and Evans, a FB, took over at RB and carried the ball 18 times for 84 yards. It’s tough to know when Dillon will be back, but if he and Patrick Pass continue to miss time, Evans could be a good fill in.

      Adrian Peterson, CHI – Cedric Benson is out three to six weeks with a knee injury and Thomas Jones is recovering from bruised ribs, so Peterson will have value until TJ can play (which might be as soon as this week).

      WIDE RECEIVERS

      Matt Jones, JAX – Jones finally had a breakout game, catching five passes for 117 yards and a TD, giving him three TDs in the last four games. If Ernest Wilford misses any more time due to injury, Jones’ value would increase.

      Brian Finneran, ATL – Over the past two weeks, Finneran has caught 12 passes for 142 yards. He hasn’t been dependable though, putting up goose eggs in the prevous two games. His numbers fluctuate with Michael Vick’s questionable accuracy.

      LeRon McCoy, ARI – It appears that McCoy is the second option in the passing game with Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson out with injuries. He may have some short-term value, depending on the status of these two guys.

      Ike Hilliard / Edell Shepherd, TB – With Michael Clayton missing the game with a knee injury, Hilliard saw eight targets to Shepherd’s four. Shepherd did more with his opportunities, catching three passes for 87 yards and a score. If I had to guess who would do more over the next few weeks, I’d say Hilliard.

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      A-Rod named MVP

      November 14, 2005 /

      They got it right.

      Anyone who thinks David Ortiz deserved the AL MVP award over Alex Rodriguez is either insane, a Red Sox fan, or an insane Red Sox fan. Ortiz had a phenomenal season at the plate, no question, but he’s a DH. Some of you are rolling your eyes right now, saying that argument doesn’t hold any water, but you’re mistaken.

      First, let’s look at the numbers:

      Rodriguez – .321, 48 HR, 130 RBI, 124 runs, 21 steals, .421 OBP, .610 slug
      Ortiz – .300, 47 HR, 148 RBI, 119 runs, 1 steal, .397 OBP, .604 slug

      A-Rod beat Big Papi in every single category except for RBI (and doubles, 40-29). Had Ortiz topped Rodriguez in any of the other categories, perhaps a stronger case could’ve been made for the Boston slugger, but the numbers, while extremely close, favor A-Rod.

      Of course, numbers don’t always tell the whole story, and nobody in baseball drove in more clutch runs for his team in 2005 than Ortiz. I’m not going to deny that. It seemed like every other night on SportsCenter, I watched Papi knock a two-run homer out of the yard in the ninth, or lace a run-scoring double into the gap in the eighth to lead the Sox to a key victory. For that reason alone, Ortiz certainly deserved consideration for the award, but it’s impossible to ignore that he essentially was a part-time player for Boston, picking up a bat every few innings and riding the pine for the rest of the game.

      Did he rob anybody of a double down the line with a runner on second? Was he out there starting pivotal double plays for his pitcher, or barehanding a slow roller and gunning to first for the out? Ortiz was great for his team when he had a bat in his hand, but that’s it, which means he could only affect the outcome of a game three or four times a night, generally speaking. A-Rod, meanwhile, hit for a higher average, hit more homers, scored more runs, got on base at a higher percentage and also carried a better slugging percentage than Ortiz, plus he played 1,391 Gold Glove-caliber innings in the field. Ortiz, meanwhile, logged 78 innings at first…and committed two errors.

      Ortiz is a stud, no doubt, and he may have gotten my vote for Most Valuable Hitter. But A-Rod clearly was the league’s MVP, and now he’s got the hardware to prove it.

      MLB

      Still hating the BCS

      November 13, 2005 /

      All the BCS apologists are happy today now that Texas and USC are left as the only two unbeaten teams in the country. If they stay unbeaten, the system will have worked for this season, just as it did in 2002 when Ohio State and Miami squared off in an epic battle for the National Championship.

      Supporters of the BCS can argue that this system is much better than the pre-BCS days, when matchups like Miami/Ohio State and Texas/USC would not have taken place. But that really misses the point. Fans, players and coaches deserve a better system. Teams like Auburn last season deserved a shot at the title after going undefeated in the SEC. If Alabama had won out, they certainly would have deserved a shot. This season, teams like Miami and Ohio State have one and two losses, respectively, but does anyone doubt they would have a chance at the title if a real playoff system were in place?

      I was rooting for Alabama, because another controversy might have tipped the balance in favor of a playoff system. It looks like we’ll get an incredible game between Texas and USC, but we deserve much more.

      College Football

      Week 10 Preview

      November 11, 2005 /

      Every week, I highlight a few marginal fantasy players, three to start and three to sit. Let’s see how I did last week:

      START

      Eli Manning – 251 passing yards, 1 TD (HIT)
      As expected, Manning put up good numbers against a bad team.

      Fred Taylor – 63 total yards, 0 TD, left with injury (MISS)
      Taylor did pretty well until he left the game with an ankle injury. Fragile Fred is back.

      Braylon Edwards – 1 catch, 2 yards (MISS)
      You would think after all the talk last week of Edwards getting more opportunities in the Browns offense, that he’d get more than one catch. Ugh.

      BENCH

      Aaron Brooks – 170 passing yards, 1 TD, 2 INT (HIT)
      Brooks faced a tough Bears defense and his stats suffered.

      Curtis Martin – 72 rushing yards, 1 TD (MISS)
      Martin’s ypc wasn’t impressive (3.4), but he scored a TD.

      Keenan McCardell – 2 catches, 25 yards (HIT)
      The Jets pass defense did a pretty good job against McCardell. Too bad they let Antonio Gates catch eight passes.

      On to this week’s picks:

      START

      QB – Kelly Holcomb, BUF
      Holcomb has been pretty solid of late, throwing for an average of 191 yards and 1.5 TDs over the past four games. This week, he faces a Chiefs defense that is giving up 261 yards and 2 TDs a game through the air. Don’t bench a stud for him, but Holcomb should put up good numbers for owners without a great QB.

      RB – Thomas Jones / Cedric Benson, CHI
      If Thomas Jones (ribs) doesn’t play, Benson should have a big game against a 49er defense that has allowed an average of 110 yards and 1.5 TDs on the ground. If Jones does play, he may be the one with the big day.

      WR – Bobby Engram / Joe Jurevicius, SEA
      Both guys should be good starts against a Rams defense that is allowing an average of 241 yards and 2 TDs through the air.

      BENCH

      QB – Mark Brunell, WAS
      You should start Brunell if you don’t have another good option. He still may put up good stats, but he may have a tough time against a stout Bucs defense that is only allowing 161 yards and 0.4 TDs a game through the air.

      RB – Kevan Barlow, SF
      The 49ers play the Bears, which likely means a tough day for Barlow and Frank Gore. Chicago is yielding only 91 yards and 0.3 TD per game on the ground. Ouch.

      WR – Jimmy Smith, JAX
      Don’t look now, but Jimmy Smith appears to be aging. Smith hasn’t had a good game since week 4, and has averaged just three catches for 39 yards in the four games since. This week he faces a Ravens defense that is allowing just 164 yards through the air.

      NFL Injury Report

      Fantasy Football, NFL

      Mid-season analysis

      November 10, 2005 /

      The fantasy season is more than half over and your team is either in the running for the playoffs or it’s not. A few good waiver wire pickups aside, which category your team falls in largely depends on what players you picked (and when you picked them) on draft day. Let’s take a look at the booms and busts of the first ten rounds of an average draft. I pulled the average draft position (ADP) from Antsports.com for the month of August. For the rankings, the scoring system is fairly standard, but includes one point per reception. Next to each name is a positive or negative number, which represents the difference between the player’s draft position and their actual midseason ranking. A positive number is good and a negative number is, well, bad.

      ROUND 1

      Boom: None
      This was a very bad year to be selecting outside of the Top 3, as LT2, Alexander and Edge are the only first round picks to meet their draft positions in the first round.

      Bust: Kevin Jones -23
      ADP: 1.10 (overall draft slot – 9th)
      Position Drafted: RB8
      Current Rank: RB31
      The Kevin Jones hype was in full effect after he put up Top 10 numbers over the last half of the 2004 season. It didn’t help that John Clayton called him “the best back in the league” after seeing him in training camp, hyping him even more.

      Dishonorable Mention:
      Peyton Manning (drafted QB1, ranked QB8) -7
      Jamal Lewis (drafted RB10, ranked RB33) -23
      Deuce McAllister (drafted RB5, ranked RB30) -25

      ROUND 2

      Boom: LaMont Jordan +15
      ADP: 2.10 (22nd)
      PD: RB17
      CR: RB2
      I liked Jordan a lot going into the season, but I wasn’t expecting him to be the #2 RB at this point. Teams that were lucky enough to grab LT2 or Alexander in the first round also had a shot at Jordan in the 2nd. That backfield is tough to beat.

      Honorable Mention:
      Brian Westbrook (drafted RB16, ranked RB6) +10
      Tiki Barber (drafted RB12, ranked RB7) +5

      Bust: Ahman Green -25
      ADP: 2.05 (16th)
      PD: RB14
      CR: RB39
      I thought Green would have a decent year, but injuries cut short what was already becoming a disappointing season. The future of the Packers RB situation is up in the air.

      Dishonorable Mention:
      Daunte Culpepper (drafted QB2, ranked QB21) -19

      ROUND 3

      Boom: Steven Jackson +13
      ADP: 2.12 (25th)
      PD: RB18
      CR: RB5
      The presence of Marshall Faulk weighted Jackson’s ADP down, but those owners that took him in the late 2nd or early 3rd are getting great results.

      Honorable Mention:
      Antonio Gates (drafted TE2, ranked TE1) +1

      Bust: Nate Burleson -81
      ADP: 4.02 (35th)
      PD: WR10
      CR: WR91
      He eclipsed 1,000 the previous season and played well in games that Randy Moss missed, so all signs pointed to a big season for Burlseon. He was a victim of the collapse of the Minnesota passing attack – owners still sitting on him can only hope that Brad Johnson can make it all better. I drafted him in two leagues and still have him in one.

      Dishonorable Mention:
      Tony Gonzalez (drafted TE1, ranked TE9) -8
      J.J. Arrington (drafted RB21, ranked RB58) -37

      ROUND 4

      Boom: Steve Smith +13
      ADP: 4.09 (43rd)
      PD: WR14
      CR: WR1
      I loved Smith going into the season, but only managed to get him in one league. Much to my chagrin, I passed on him for Nate Burleson and Javon Walker in two leagues. He has been unstoppable and is in the running for this season’s league and fantasy MVP.

      Honorable Mention:
      Warrick Dunn (drafted RB25, ranked RB11) +14

      Bust: Roy Williams -72
      ADP: 4.07 (41st)
      PD: WR13
      CR: WR85
      Roy has missed several games with injuries and hasn’t been that impressive when he’s played, disappointing fantasy owners around the country.

      Dishonorable Mention:
      Michael Bennett (drafted RB23, ranked RB53) -30
      DeShaun Foster (drafted RB24, ranked RB37) -13

      ROUND 5

      Boom: Larry Fitzgerald +15
      ADP: 5.12 (58th)
      PD: WR21
      CR: WR6
      Fitzgerald has really shined in his second year with Arizona and should continue to put up big numbers as the Cardinals play from behind every week.

      Honorable Mention:
      Larry Johnson (drafted RB28, ranked RB19 and rising) +9

      Bust: Michael Clayton -43
      ADP: 4.12 (49th)
      PD: WR17
      CR: WR60
      A lot of folks thought they were getting a good deal, picking Clayton in the 4th or 5th round. His poor performance is a bit of a mystery, but Joey Galloway’s emergence as a solid #1 WR is probably the main reason.

      ROUND 6

      Boom: Carson Palmer +8
      ADP: 6.12 (72nd)
      PD: QB9
      CR: QB1
      Palmer has had a great season thus far, leading the Bengals to a surprising 7-2 record. After a good second half last season, there were high expectations heading into this seasons, but those expectations were tempered by a rather poor preseason.

      Honorable Mention:
      Jeremy Shockey – (drafted TE4, ranked TE2) +2

      Bust: Lee Suggs -67
      ADP: 6.11 (69th)
      PD: RB33
      CR: RB100+
      Many, myself included, believe that Suggs is the most gifted RB in Cleveland, but the Injured One has barely sniffed the field this season.

      ROUND 7

      Boom: Thomas Jones +27
      ADP: 7.04 (78th)
      PD: RB35
      CR: RB8
      Everyone thought that Cedric Benson would be the starter for the Bears this year, but his holdout coupled with Jones’ tremendous performance means that only an injury is going to send Jones to the bench. Are his ribs OK?

      Bust: Ravens Defense -22
      ADP: 7.08 (81st)
      PD: DT1
      CR: DT23
      It used to be that you could count on the Ravens to give you Top 5 DT numbers, but it’s not looking good this year. Proof positive that it is a good idea to wait on drafting a defense.

      Dishonorable Mention:
      Lee Evans (drafted WR28, ranked WR67) -39
      Brandon Stokley (drafted WR27, ranked WR61) -34
      Ashley Lelie (drafted WR25, ranked WR43) -18

      ROUND 8

      Boom: Plaxico Burress +24
      ADP: 8.03 (43rd)
      PD: WR31
      CR: WR7
      So much for avoiding WRs playing with new teams. Burress has found a home in New York and it seems like he and QB Eli Manning will be a force to reckon with for years to come.

      Honorable Mention:
      Drew Brees (drafted QB14, ranked QB6) +8

      Bust: Charles Rogers -66
      ADP: 8.12 (95th)
      PD: WR34
      CR: WR100+
      Rogers did little for the Lions before getting suspended four games for violating the NFL substance abuse policy. Now he appears to be in Mariucci’s dog house. Ugh.

      ROUND 9

      Boom: Santana Moss +32
      ADP: 9.05 (99th)
      PD: WR35
      CR: WR3
      Moss is another WR flourishing in his first year with a new team. He’s also benefited from surprisingly great QB play from Mark Brunell.

      Honorable Mention:
      Eddie Kennison (drafted WR37, ranked WR21) +16
      T.J. Houshmandzadeh (drafted WR36, ranked WR22) +14

      Bust: Eric Johnson -92
      ADP: 9.05 (100th)
      PD: TE8
      CR: TE100+
      After a great year in 2004, Johnson hasn’t played this season due to injury. Bold owners who drafted him have been submarined in a bad way.

      ROUND 10

      Boom: Mike Anderson +20
      ADP: 10.04 (113th)
      PD: RB42
      CR: RB22
      Many thought that Tatum Bell would take over as the Denver starter, but HC Mike Shanahan has always been a tough one to read. Even though Bell has shown flashes of brilliance, Shanny continues to stick with Anderson as his starter.

      Honorable Mention:
      Donte Stallworth (drafted W38, ranked WR19) +19
      L.J. Smith (drafted TE11, ranked TE6) +5

      Bust: Mark Campbell -29
      ADP: 10.01 (111th)
      PD: TE10
      CR: TE39
      Campbell’s fantasy relevancy disappeared when Drew Bledsoe left in the offseason.

      Dishonorable Mention:
      Joey Harrington (drafted QB19, ranked QB29) -10
      Keary Colbert (drafted WR39, ranked WR88) -49

      So there you have it, the biggest values and the biggest busts of each round. Just think, had you played your cards perfectly, taking each player one round earlier than their ADP, you could have had this All-Boom roster:

      QB1: Carson Palmer (5th)
      RB7: Tiki Barber (1st)
      RB2: LaMont Jordan (2nd)
      WR1: Steve Smith (3rd)
      WR6: Larry Fitzgerald (4th)
      TE6: L.J. Smith (9th)
      RB8: Thomas Jones (6th)
      WR7: Plaxico Burress (7th)
      WR3: Santana Moss (8th)

      Don’t feel bad; I doubt anyone was able to secure that roster. Conversely, it could be much worse. Here’s the All-Bust squad you would have had if you had picked a Bust player in the same round as his ADP:

      QB21: Daunte Culpepper (2nd)
      RB30: Deuce McAllister (1st)
      RB58: J.J. Arrington (3rd)
      WR85: Roy Williams (4th)
      WR60: Michael Clayton (5th)
      TE100+: Eric Johnson (9th)
      DT23: Ravens DT (7th)
      TE39: Mark Campbell (10th)
      RB100+: Lee Suggs (6th)
      WR100+: Charles Rogers (8th)

      If you drafted two or three guys on this list without any of the All-Boom players, chances are you’re struggling. Don’t fret. There is still a month before the playoffs – anything can happen.

      Fantasy Football, NFL

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