This week, the undefeated Indianapolis Colts visit Foxboro to face the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Colts are favored by 3 points and I think the number is too low. Sure, the Pats won the Super Bowl last year and are playing at home, but their secondary is banged up, resulting in a defense that is 24th in the league in passing yards allowed. Oddly enough, they are 24th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game, so the Colts should be able to move the ball with relative ease on the ground or through the air. In previous years, the Colts defense would keep the games close, but this season they are 4th in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.
A lot of people want to point to Bill Belichick and say that the Pats have a definite coaching advantage, but Tony Dungy is an underrated leader and I think he’ll have the Colts ready to play on Monday night. New England has struggled a bit with loss of former coordinators Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis, and even if Belichick is the best preparation coach in the league, I don’t think preparation alone is going to get them a win against the Colts. The game could be close, but I think the Colts will cover the spread without too much of a problem.
Fantasy wise, look for big games from the Colts offensive players while the New England rushing game may struggle a bit. Since he’ll probably be playing catchup, Tom Brady should have a decent day through the air, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep the game within a touchdown.
