It’s fantasy hoops time, and while it is usually overshadowed by fantasy football, it is still a fun pastime. Lineups can either be submitted daily or weekly, and most leagues use several stat categories in rotisserie or head-to-head formats.
Here are my top ten fantasy hoops players, assuming that the following stat categories are important:
FG%, FT%, Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, 3-Pointers, Turnovers
Off we go…
1. Lebron James – CLE
2004-05 stats: 27.2 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 7.2 apg, 2.2 spg, 0.7 bpg, .472 FG%, .351 3P%, .750 FT%
There is a lot of debate in the fantasy basketball community about who should be picked first overall. For me, it’s virtually a tie between King James and KG. I’m listing James first because of his youth and his potential. Last year, he took a big step forward from his rookie season increasing his numbers in almost every important category. In fact, the only statistic where he didn’t make an improvement was his FT%, which declined from .754 to .750 – big whoop. If you have the first pick you can’t go wrong with either guy you should probably choose whomever gives you more roster flexibility in your particular league (i.e. can James be played as a guard and/or a forward?) There are a lot of new faces around Lebron, but the Cavs are still his team, so I don’t see his numbers declining substantially.
1a. Kevin Garnett – MIN
22.2 ppg, 13.5 rpg, 5.7 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.4 bpg, .502 FG%, .240 3P%, .811 FT%
Last year marked KG’s seventh straight season where he averaged 20+ ppg, 10+ rpg, while never shooting less than .460. He won’t make many 3’s for you, but he’s a stud in every other category. Although it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still just 29 and age shouldn’t begin to diminish his skills for another couple of years. There was a lot of changeover for the Timberwolves this offseason, with disruptive guards Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell jettisoned for younger talent. As a result, Garnett will probably be pressed to score more, so I forsee a slight rise in his points while his FG% will probably drop a few points. Regardless, another MVP-caliber season is in store for KG.
3. Shawn Marion – PHX
19.4 ppg, 11.3 rpg, 1.9 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.5 bpg, .479 FG%, .334 3P%, .833 FT%
Marion is another model of consistency. Last year marked his fourth straight season where he averaged 19+ ppg and 9+ rpg. Like Garnett and James, Marion will help you in just about every category – his weak spot is assists, but he’ll still give you two a game. It’s unclear how Marion’s numbers will be affected by the absence of Amare Stoudemire for a majority of the season, but he averaged 19 and 9 while Stoudemire was still in high school, so I’m expecting those numbers again. If anything, I see his scoring rising a bit to compensate for Amare’s absence.
4. Dirk Nowitzki – DAL
26.1 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 3.1 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.5 bpg, .459 FG%, .399 3P%, .869 FT%
Nowitzki is another sure thing. Over the past five seasons, he’s never averaged fewer than 21.8 ppg or 8.7 rpg. He kills from the strip – nailing a career .856 of his free throws. There’s just one thing that worries me about him: in the playoffs, he had a lot of trouble scoring when covered by rangy, athletic small forward (Tracy McGrady). Teams will be sure to copy Houston’s blueprint, but I expect that Nowitzki has spent part of this summer working on his post moves in case that happens. If he has center eligibility in your league it makes him a no-brainer at #4.
5. Tracy McGrady – HOU
25.7 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.7 apg, 1.7 spg, 0.7 bpg, .431 FG%, .326 3P%, .774 FT%
In his first season with Houston, McGrady proved that he could still produce playing with a big man. McGrady is another sure thing – he’s never averaged less than 25.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, or 4.6 apg over the last five seasons. He’s also been quite durable over that span, missing no more than seven games in four of those seasons (he missed 15 games in 2003-04, but a few of those were a part of the trade that took him from Orlando to Houston). In most leagues he can be played at both SG and SF, which only adds to his value. Entering his second year of Jeff Van Gundy’s system, I see his game getting more efficient, with his scoring staying about the same but with a better shooting percentage.
6. Kobe Bryant – LAL
27.6 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 6.0 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.8 bpg, .433 FG%, .339 3P%, .816 FT%
The only things separating Bryant and McGrady are McGrady’s fantasy versatility and Bryant’s tendency to miss games – 33 over the past two seasons. Bryant will once again be asked (or ask himself) to carry the load for the Lakers and his FG% should stay in the low 40’s. The Lakers are planning to use newcomers Aaron McKie at the point and Kwame Brown at power forward, so it is unclear what affect – if any – this will have on Bryant’s numbers. He should still be in for a fine statistical season.
7. Tim Duncan – SAS
20.3 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 0.7 spg, 2.6 bpg, .496 FG%, .333 3P%, .670 FT%
If Duncan is eligible at center in your league, I’d probably take him ahead of McGrady and Bryant given the relative dearth of talent in the middle. Like Kobe, he has been a bit injury prone recently, missing a total of 29 games over the last two seasons. But the Big Fundamental has been consistent, averaging 20+ ppg and 11+ rpg in each of his eight seasons. Like Garnett, he’s 29, but his game doesn’t rely on the physical talents that tend to diminish with age, so I don’t see his game declining anytime soon. His Achilles heel is his free throw shooting, which is woefully inconsistent, settling in at .670 last season.
8. Dwayne Wade – MIA
24.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 6.8 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.1 bpg, .478 FG%, .289 3P%, .762 FT%
All else being equal, I’d take Wade along with McGrady and Bryant, but with all the additions to the Heat this offseason (Jason Williams, Antoine Walker, James Posey, etc), there is a lot of chaos surrounding Wade at the moment. With Williams on board running the point, it would seem reasonable to expect Wade’s assists to go down. With Walker chucking up shots from all over the floor, Wade’s scoring numbers could go down. I still expect a great season, but right now there is just a bit too much uncertainty about his role to take him ahead of McGrady, Bryant or Duncan.
9. Gilbert Arenas – WAS
25.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 5.1 apg, 1.7 spg, 0.3 bpg, .431 FG%, .365 3P%, .814 FT%
Last season, Arenas blossomed into one of the best all around guards in the NBA. He lost backcourt mate Larry Hughes to Cleveland, but the Wizards added Antonio Daniels and Caron Butler to pick up the slack, so I don’t see any reason why Arenas can’t match last year’s stats. Sure, I’d like a higher shooting percentage (that goes for you too, Kobe and Tracy) but getting 25, 5, and 5 on a nightly basis makes it a bit easier to swallow.
10. Allen Iverson – PHI
30.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 8.0 apg, 2.4 spg, 0.1 bpg, .424 FG%, .308 3P%
The Sixers moved AI to the point last year and he responded with one of the best statistical seasons of his career. Who else is going to give you 30 points, 8 dimes, 4 boards and two thefts a game? The two knocks on Iverson are his low shooting percentage and his tendency to miss games. He’s a career .418 shooter, but last season he raised that up to a somewhat respectable .424. If he would only reduce the number of three point attempts, that number would rise. And he’s not durable – he averages 15 missed games per season, but only missed seven last year. He’s definitely a little risky, but if he doesn’t miss too many games, having him in your lineup will pay big dividends.
Honorable Mention:
11. Elton Brand – LAC
20.0 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.1 bpg, .503 FG%, .752 FT%
You can write him in for a double-double just about every night and he’ll give you a nice shooting percentage and a couple of blocks and assists to boot. It’s hard to find that kind of consistency these days, but Brand’s work ethic and all around good play make him one of my favorite fantasy and real-world players.
