In the world of fantasy sports, anyone can make solid picks in the first few rounds. It’s the middle to late rounds where championship squads are born. Here are a few sleepers (all being selected, on average, in the 8th round or later) that I’m trying to pick as the draft wears on.
GUARDS
T.J. Ford, MIL
After a terrific career at the University of Texas, Ford was drafted #8 overall by a Milwaukee Bucks team in need of a point guard. Known to be lightning quick and a great distributor, the two big knocks on him are his size and lack of shooting touch. He didn’t do anything in his rookie season to dispel either, shooting just .384 from the field before going down with a season-ending spinal cord injury. But the injury might have been a blessing in disguise for Ford, who rehabbed with former NBA coach/player John Lucas. Lucas wisely decided to reinvent Ford’s jumpshot so that Ford wouldn’t have to go to the hole to be a scoring threat. Fast forward to this preseason and, through four games, he’s averaging 13 points and six assists while shooting .474 from the field. I think those numbers are reasonable expectations for the season, putting him at the level of Jamal Tinsley and Luke Ridnour, who are both going a few rounds ahead of him.
Jason Williams, MIA
I’m not a big fan of all the extra flash in his game, and he seems like a mental lightweight (as evidence, I submit his official picture here. But one thing is for sure: he’s a talented ballhandler. That’s not to say he’s efficient – his career assist to turnover ratio (2.7) is worse than converted shooting guard Jason Terry’s ratio (2.9) last season – but he can handle the ball. After stints in Sacramento and Memphis, Williams has landed in Miami and is slated to start alongside Dwayne Wade and Shaquille O’Neal for the Heat. It is unclear if this lineup is going to work in the long term, but if Williams is able to play the role of the third or fourth option on offense, he should be able to rack up a ton of assists and improve on his career .390 field goal percentage. Thus far in the preseason, he hasn’t shown this potential, so he’s still considered a high risk pick. If he manages to fit in, I think 11 points and seven assists are within reach.
Bonzi Wells, SAC
After a couple of lackluster seasons in Memphis, Wells finds himself in a contract year and starting for the Sacramento Kings. He supposedly going to get 40 minutes a game and if he receives that kind of playing time, he should be able to improve on his career averages of 12.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg and 2.2 apg. Since he’s being drafted on average in the tenth round, that’s pretty good production. There is nothing quite like a contract year to get a malcontent like Wells motivated to perform.
Raja Bell, PHO
If you’ve already drafted, there’s a good chance that Bell is still in your free agent pool. This offseason, the Suns let Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson sign elsewhere, and lost Amare Stoudemire for at least four months of the season. That’s an awful lot of points to replace. They signed Bell and have him as their starting shooting guard, and in six preseason games, he’s averaging 14 points, four boards and three assists. If Phoenix continues to have success with their up-tempo offense, he should be able to take these numbers well into the season. Not bad for a guy you can get in the final round of your draft.
FORWARDS
Josh Childress, ATL
Picked sixth overall in the 2004 NBA draft, Childress had the opportunity to play and improve in his rookie season with the Hawks. Over the last eleven games of last season, he averaged 16 points, seven boards and three assists. The free agent signing of Joe Johnson will surely change the dynamics in Atlanta, but there will still be ample minutes for Childress. Through five preseason games, he’s averaging 15 points, five boards and three assists per, while shooting .617 from the field. The accuracy should regress, but the other numbers should tick up a bit as he gets regular season minutes.
Stromile Swift, HOU
The Rockets signed Swift in the offseason to act as a hard-nosed, rebounding compliment to Yao Ming. At the moment, it appears that he will be coming off the bench, but it is expected that he will receive a good amount of time playing behind Juwan Howard. In his last three seasons in Memphis, he didn’t receive more than 22.1 minutes over the course of the season, but he should get a minimum of 25 in Houston. In the twenty games last season where he played that many minutes, he averaged 15 points, seven boards and more than two blocks. His career FG % (.468) is less than spectacular but his FT % (.712) isn’t bad for a big man. He is also eligible at center in many fantasy leagues, which only adds to his value.
Al Jefferson, BOS
Jefferson entered the 2004 draft straight out of high school and was promptly selected #15 overall by the Boston Celtics. With only Raef LaFrentz and Mark Blount ahead of him on the depth chart, he figures to see a lot more minutes this season. He is the team’s best low post threat and should make a nice compliment to Paul Pierce and Ricky Davis on the wings. He has appeared in two preseason games and posted a total of 18 points and seven boards in 36 minutes. If he gets 30 minutes a game, he should score in the 15-17 range while grabbing 7-8 rebounds.
Michael Sweetney, CHI
Obtained from the Knicks in the offseason, Sweetney is slated to start at power forward for the Bulls. It appears that Chicago got a nice player in Sweetney, and he should be the team’s main low post threat as center Tyson Chandler isn’t much of an option on offense. Last season’s All-Star break, Sweetney averaged nine points and six rebounds on .530 shooting. Through six preseason games, he’s averaging 11 points and six boards. He’s also a good free throw shooter for a big man – he’s nailed .861 of his attempts in the preseason.
Josh Howard, DAL
Howard inexplicably fell to #29 in the 2003 draft, where the Mavericks jumped on him. Apparently, being the ACC Player of the Year doesn’t hold as much water as it used to. Regardless, Howard has turned into a good pro, averaging 13 points and six boards last season while logging heavy minutes for the Mavs. With the departure of Michael Finley, I suspect Howard’s scoring to increase some while he remains the team’s perimeter stopper.
CENTERS
Zaza Pachulia, ATL
The Hawks signed Pachulia in the offseason to be their starting center and through five preseason games, he’s averaging 13 points and six boards. A hard-worker/overachiever type, Pachulia gives maximum effort when he plays. He’s not very athletic, so he won’t give you very many blocks, but he’s a great free throw shooter (.746) at the center position. Since opportunity is a big part of the fantasy success equation, Zaza should be a good fantasy backup as the season wears on.
Kwame Brown, LAL
Ah, good ol’ Kwame Brown. Every year, countless experts list him as a sleeper and each year he doesn’t fail to disappoint. He had a rough go of it in Washington and I think the change of scenery will do him good. He’s slated to start at power forward for the Lakers, but is also eligible at center in most fantasy leagues. The Lakers will need him to produce and I think Phil Jackson will be able to coax out most of his potential. Over the first six preseason games, he’s averaging 11 points and six boards and I expect those numbers to grow to 13 and seven before the season is through.
Joel Przybilla, POR
As a Bucks fan I loath writing this paragraph, but if the guy is a sleeper a guy is a sleeper, and you deserve to know about him. After being drafted #9 in the 2000 NBA draft, it was safe to write of Przybilla as a bust. He did next to nothing in Milwaukee, but after being traded to Portland, he had a renaissance of sorts, averaging nine points, 10 boards and three blocks for the Trail Blazers after the All Star break. His career free throw shooting (.473) will kill you, but his field goal percentage (.533) is terrific. So what’s the key to his success? He admitted he was lazy and got a trainer. After dropping 45 pounds he became a beast on the boards. His increased spryness also enabled him to block more shots. This guy is a great pick in the 8th round if you need a center.