San Diego heads into October with the ignominious distinction of sporting the worst record ever by a playoff team, a mere two games over .500. Guess what? That doesn’t matter anymore. They’re in, and no one’s taking them seriously, a deadly combination if ever there was one (ask the 2001 New England Patriots about that). Unfortunately for them, their first round is against the best team in baseball this year. Do they have what it takes to pull off the upset of all upsets?

The breakdown, piece by piece:

Starting Pitching: St. Louis. If I were building a team from scratch, I’d still take Jake Peavy over any of the Cards’ starters, but one ace does not a rotation make, and after Peavy, the Padre pickings get slim. Chris Carpenter was the Staff Rock of 2005, which took tremendous pressure off NL newcomer Mark Mulder. And hello, Jeff Suppan! He won 16 games? Who knew?

Relief Pitching: St. Louis, by a nose. I prefer Trevor Hoffman, he of the gravity-defying changeup, to the oft-injured Jason Isringhausen, but aside from the closers, the Cards’ ‘pen rules. They did suffer a huge loss when Al Reyes’ elbow went pop a couple days ago, though. And you can’t dismiss the number of vulture wins the Padres staff has; Rudy Seanez has as many wins as starter Woody Williams, and Scott Linebrink actually has more.

Hitting: St. Louis. Nowhere near as formidable as they looked on paper in March, but you cannot dismiss any lineup that includes Albert Pujols, even if Scott Rolen is out for the year and Larry Walker is so full of cortisone that it would create a false positive in a blood alcohol test. Regardless, the lineup has big time pop (Edmonds, Sanders), something that cannot be said for the Padres, who were led by Ryan Klesko’s 18, count ‘em, 18 dingers. Still, I’m just happy to see Brian Giles finally get some hot playoff action. He’s earned this, after getting traded from the Tribe, in their heyday, to the lowly Pirates.

Manager: St. Louis. Tony LaRussa, baby. He’s so far into his opponent’s head that he knows what they’re going to do three innings before the thought ever crosses their mind. Still, the untested coach with no expectations could surprise you. Can you tell that it kills me to say such nice things about St. Louis?

Defense/Intangibles: St. Louis. No one has better fundamentals than the Cardinals, period. Better defense, better baserunning, hitting the cutoff man, all the little things: nobody does it better. Makes me feel sad for the – hey, who let Carly Simon in here?

TSR Pick: Cardinals in four, but my heart is with the Padres. I love a good upset.

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