Heading into the season, there were some who insisted that Peyton Manning should be the top overall choice in fantasy football. Coming off his record-setting 49-TD performance, that argument certainly carried at least some validity. Even if Manning failed to match last season’s remarkable numbers, 40-45 touchdowns seemed like a virtual lock.
Fast forward to week three of the NFL season and, if you happened to choose Manning over LaDainian Tomlinson or even Shaun Alexander in your draft, you’re likely looking for the nearest ledge to jump from. Going up against a Cleveland defense that allowed Brett Favre to throw for 342 yards and three touchdowns a week after Carson Palmer totaled 280 yards and two scores, Manning failed to throw for a TD for the second game in a row this week. In comparison, Manning threw for at least two touchdowns in all but two games last season: a week 15 win against Baltimore (one TD), and a 33-14 loss to Denver in the final game of the year, in which Manning only attempted two passes before resting up for the playoffs.
So is it time to panic? In a word, no. Manning could still lead the league in touchdown passes by the end of the year, after ripping off a few five-TD performances in the next 13 games. But while there was little chance of him repeating his record-breaking campaign from last season, the 40-45 TDs that just a month ago seemed like a virtual lock now appear to be a long shot. Manning would have to average 2.92 TDs per game going forward to hit 40 by the end of the year, which would nearly match his 3.06 per-game output from last season. When you consider he threw for 26, 27 and 29 TDs in the three years leading up to last season, Manning now looks destined for 30-35 touchdowns, which are still good numbers but hardly worthy of the top pick in the draft, or even a selection in the top-five.
HEADLINERS
Daunte Culpepper: 300 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT; 36 rushing yards
Speaking of ledges, all Culpepper owners can now step down from theirs. The best part about Culpepper’s line against the Saints is the absence of any turnovers. The loss of Nate Burleson, who may be out for another week or two with a knee injury, certainly is cause for concern but the best news for Culpepper this week may have been the emergence of RB Mewelde Moore, who started for the ineffective Michael Bennett and ran for 101 yards on 23 carries. If Moore, an excellent runner and receiver out of the backfield, continues to start and produce, the Vikings offense, and Culpepper, should rebound nicely.
ALSO: Drew Bledsoe (363 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT; 1 rushing TD), Donovan McNabb (365 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), Kerry Collins (345 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT)
Shaun Alexander: 22 carries, 140 yards, 4 TD
LaDainian Tomlinson: 21 carries, 192 yards, 3 TD; 6 catches, 28 yards; 1 passing TD
Remember when Alexander only ran for 73 yards in the opener against the Jaguars? Nervous owners nationwide were wondering if they should deal the Seattle back. I wish someone would’ve offered Alexander to me after that week-one performance, especially in the leagues that Alexander single-handedly beat me this week. Coming off a great performance last season and playing in a contract year, Alexander should be the second-best back in fantasy land this season, and may challenge LaDainian Tomlinson for the overall title by the end of the year.
Then again, maybe not. Football fans across the country wondered what the Chargers were thinking. After their miraculous playoff run last season, the Bolts were 0-2 and their star back had only gotten 19 carries in each of those two losses, topping out at 72 rushing yards in week one. Even more puzzling, Tomlinson failed to record a single reception in either game, and we’re talking about a guy who caught 100 balls just two years ago. Then the Chargers beat up on the Giants on national TV Sunday night and LT got off, ripping off a 62-yarder to cap off his night. All apparently is right in San Diego again.
ALSO: Brian Westbrook (13 carries, 68 yards, 1 TD; 6 catches, 140 yards, 1 TD), Willis McGahee (27 carries, 140 yards, 1 TD), Ronnie Brown (23 carries, 132 yards, 1 TD), Cadillac Williams (37 carries, 158 yards, 0 TD)
Steve Smith: 11 catches, 170 yards, 3 TD
Any questions about Smith’s ability to return from last year’s season-ending injury? Smith tied franchise records with his 11 catches and three touchdown receptions and should continue to produce like a quality #1 fantasy receiver this season, especially if Carolina keeps falling behind early.
ALSO: Brandon Lloyd (4 catches, 142 yards, 2 TD), Torry Holt (9 catches, 163 TD, 1 TD), Hines Ward (4 catches, 110 yards, 2 TD)
FLATLINERS
Matt Hasselbeck: 242 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
Hasselbeck’s numbers weren’t ugly (check out Chad Pennington’s line below for that), and the Seahawks aren’t complaining after thumping the Cardinals 37-12, but fantasy owners (like me) expected big things from the Seattle quarterback against a weak Arizona team. Instead, Hasselbeck moved the ball effectively (20 for 31) but Shaun Alexander got all the scoring glory.
ALSO: Chad Pennington (76 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT), Aaron Brooks (199 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT), Brett Favre (195 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT), Kyle Orton (149 yards, 0 TD, 5 INT)
Willie Parker: 17 carries, 55 yards, 0 TD
Somebody finally slowed Fast Willie down. The general feeling coming out of last week’s solid performance was Parker had become a must-start in most situations, depending on who your other backs were, but this outing against the Patriots proves that Parker still isn’t a sure thing, at least not against top defenses. The return of Duce Staley should have Parker owners somewhat concerned, even if Staley didn’t log a single carry Sunday. Still, Jerome Bettis may be back after Pittsburgh’s bye next week, which would leave the Steelers backfield looking awfully crowded. If you’re nervous, now may not be a bad time to start shopping Parker while his value is sky high. Just be warned that the Steelers may very well stick with the younger, faster and fresher Parker for the rest of the season.
ALSO: Stephen Davis (16 carries, 36 yards, 0 TD), Steven Jackson (12 carries, 48 yards, 0 TD), Ahman Green (19 carries, 58 yards, 0 TD)
Joe Horn: 1 catch, 11 yards
Donte Stallworth: 0 catches
Horn’s poor showing is nothing to be concerned about and should be attributed more to Aaron Brooks’ struggles against the Vikings than anything else. Stallworth’s donut, on the other hand, is certainly noteworthy coming off his monster eight-catch, 141-yard performance against the Giants last week. Criticized for his maddening inconsistency and spurned by most fantasy owners for the same reason despite his undeniable talent, Stallworth looked like he may have turned the corner last week in the second game of his fourth NFL season. Instead, he now looks like the same guy: a risky fantasy option who can’t be counted on for anything more than the occasional tease game.
ALSO: T.J. Houshmandzadeh (2 catches, 13 yards), Laveranues Coles (4 catches, 17 yards), Larry Fitzgerald (3 catches, 41 yards), Jerry Porter (5 catches, 40 yards)
