Originally published December 11, 2008.
Updated November 12, 2009.

The phrase “Summer of 2010″ has become part of the NBA lexicon. Teams have been tripping over each other trying to clear cap space for next summer so that they can sign an impact free agent (or two). With that in mind, let’s take a look ahead at the free agent crop of 2010.

Below is a list of the top 10 players that are likely to be free agents next summer. I’m ranking them based mostly on talent, but it’s also important to note each player’s age in July of 2010, as that will affect his value and skill. For example, a 31 year-old Paul Pierce holds much more value than a 33 year-old Paul Pierce. Get the drift?

1. LeBron James, SF (26 years-old)
James is the golden boy of this free agent class and is the player that every franchise would love to land next summer. He will have just turned 26 and whatever team is lucky enough to sign him will – barring injury – enjoy four or five years of the best basketball of his career. The Cavs have gone “all in” this season, signing Shaq, Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, and re-signing Anderson Varejao. In the process, they gave up whatever cap space they would have enjoyed next summer. If Cleveland’s season ends in disappointment once again, it wouldn’t be surprising if LeBron decides to take his game elsewhere. Three teams — the Knicks, Bulls and Nets — jump out as good fits. LeBron has stated that his top priority is to become a “global icon” and playing in Manhattan would serve that purpose. If the Knicks are able to unload Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries before the trade deadline, then they’ll have the projected cap space to sign two top players on this list, and that might be enough to convince LeBron to sign on the dotted line. Plus, he’s familiar with Mike D’Antoni (via the duo’s work with Team USA) and the Knicks’ up-tempo system would be a near-perfect fit for LeBron’s skill set. The Nets offer a better supporting cast (led by Devin Harris and Brook Lopez) and the (impending?) move to Brooklyn would boost the franchise’s profile. Chicago has a number of pieces already in place (Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich) and is bigger market than Cleveland. But would LeBron want to go to the franchise that Michael Jordan built?
Note: Player option (PO)

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Per Rotoworld…

“The (X-ray) picture looks good. The bones heal well,” Yao said. But when asked if he’d play this season, the news wasn’t positive. “The answer is no. You don’t want to rush it, because they want it to totally heal this time. I have been in this situation enough,” he said. Yao has also hinted that he’s going to have to “slow down” in order to prolong his career.

The general consensus was that Yao would be out for the season, but it’s another thing to hear the big man say it himself. The Rockets can still compete without him, but they are a legit contender when he’s healthy and on the court. Now they look like a Western Conference also-ran.

I’ve always loved that photo. It’s a safe bet that whatever happens over the course of the next year concerning Yao Ming and his health, he’s not going to going to be the same Yao Ming we’ve seen. Of course it’s sad when a big man falls after years of pounding a body unable to cope with the prolonged strain of basketball. But Yao Ming’s early retirement would result in more than just the loss of a star player. Adrian Wojnarowski at Yahoo! Sports has this to say:

As the global game goes, he’s basketball’s most important player since Michael Jordan. He’s the reason the world’s most populated country grew smitten with the NBA. He’s the reason that the NBA makes hundreds of millions of dollars out of the Far East, why its American players were treated like rock stars in the Beijing Olympics.

A lot of NBA players and commentators treated Yao with disdain upon his arrival, an overhyped stiff they promised to embarrass. Truth be told, there was a racial element to the criticism. Perhaps they didn’t want to believe an Asian could become an NBA star. Perhaps they feared an impending wave of Chinese 7-footers to gobble up jobs. Whatever the genesis, the criticisms of Yao pushed beyond legitimate basketball doubts and were nasty and needlessly personal.

Perhaps, there’s never been a modern athlete with the burden that belonged to Yao…
He won the respect of his peers in the NBA. He worked relentlessly, and became an unstoppable force when his body was well.

This is absolutely true. I remember not believing he would amount to anything in the NBA, but I can safely say now that he has proven himself to me and countless others. If you still don’t think Yao is important to the NBA, you’d better remember that there’s a country of a billion and a half people across the ocean, and a large number of them (if you’ll pardon the generalization) don’t think the word “basketball” too often, but rather “that game Yao Ming plays.”

Per Ric Bucher…

Houston Rockets center Yao Ming has elected to have extensive surgery on his fractured left foot that almost certainly eliminates his chances of playing next season but offers hope that he can resume his NBA career and not fracture the foot a career-ending third time.

After consultation with a battery of doctors, Yao, 28, has decided to undergo a bone graft to heal the existing fracture and have his arch surgically lowered to reduce the stress on his foot.

Cavaliers center Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a fracture in the same part of the foot, had a similar combination of surgeries and has played the last eight seasons without suffering another fracture.

For a while, it looked as if the Houston Rockets were the team most likely to usurp the Lakers at the top of the Western Conference, but now that they’ve lost Yao Ming for a season and Ron Artest to free agency, things aren’t looking so good. If Tracy McGrady can come back healthy, the Rockets will still be a playoff team in the West, but they’re not a threat to go to the Finals.

Let’s hope not, but according to the Rockets’ team physician, it’s a possibility.

“At this point, the injury has the potential for him missing this next season and could be career threatening,” team physician Tom Clanton said, according to the Houston Chronicle. “One of the things we are trying to get is a consensus opinion on that, to make certain there is no option we are overlooking that would provide an earlier return or would be an option for treatment that he would prefer rather than doing additional surgery.”

While Yao could face surgery to insert a pin in the foot, a bone graft or even realignment of the foot, but the team is trying immobilization for right now. They are hoping that the fracture heals on its own.

“He has no tenderness, no swelling, no redness,” Clanton said, according to the Chronicle. “When he came back in, he was feeling like everything was perfect, and he would start rehabilitation and get ready to play. The findings on the CT were shocking for him and for us.”

This is obviously a huge blow to the franchise. Yao was expected to miss 8-12 weeks, but the CT revealed that his foot was not healing properly.

Injuries have derailed an otherwise stellar career. Yao missed just two games in his first three seasons, but since then, he has only appeared in 72% of his team’s regular season games.

Well, the Lakers are on their way to the NBA Finals to face Cleveland and give us a legendary match-up, oh wait a second…Seems the Houston Rockets, sans Yao Ming, weren’t quite ready to give up the ghost on this series. At least for one night, they showed the Lakers that they were able to step up their game when necessary. Aaron Brooks scored a career-high 34 points and Shane Battier drained 5 threes’ to lead the charge right over the dumbstruck Lakers. As quoted by the Associated Press on ESPN.com, Battier had some valid observations after the game:

“I’m not surprised,” said Battier. “It almost sounds cliche, but we’re a resilient group. We talk about bouncing back. Through adversity, through lineup changes, through trades, through injuries, we’ve never quit and we’ve never stopped believing.”

It was a serious spanking applied to the Lakers, and it’s something the Lakers need every few games or so. I don’t think I’m going out on a ledge here by saying that despite the loss, the Rockets don’t have a prayer of beating the Lakers in this series. The only real weapon Houston had that the Lakers seemed unable to fully counter, Yao Ming, is out with a broken foot.

Besides, Yao Ming wasn’t the turning point anyway, it’s not like the Rockets had much of a chance even with him at 100%. Now that LA’s had this little slap in the face, they’re gonna get real mad, and the next game would be a triumph for the Rockets if they can even keep it respectable.

That’s just what the Lakers do. They get lazy and get beat, then remember why they’re the most dangerous team in the league and win. It’s a lack of focus that may get them in trouble in the Finals, but isn’t going to be enough to worry anybody until then.

Here’s a hypothetical I was chewing on even before the news broke that Yao Ming will miss the rest of the playoffs with a broken foot: how badly are the Houston Rockets missing Tracy McGrady in their second round series against the Lakers?

Many people have argued the opposite, saying that it’s only because McGrady is out that the Rockets have made it this far. It’s a compelling argument, one that I was inclined to believe for a time myself. However, when it comes to the team’s current series against L.A., I think the Rockets are missing T-Mac desperately.

The reason is that what the Rockets lack more than anything else right now is offensive firepower: something McGrady provides in no short supply. Defensively, Houston has been excellent the entire postseason – and McGrady is no slouch as a defender himself. If T-Mac was able to stay within the confines of what’s been working for the Rockets offensively (quick point guards Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry getting into the lane and kicking the ball out to open shooters, Houston could have seen a major uptick in their offensive production.

But with Yao out for the playoffs, McGrady is the one player who could have possibly given the Rockets a chance to compete with L.A. With T-Mac, the Rockets could have gone small by playing him at the 2, Artest at the 3 and Shane Battier at the 4, forcing the Lakers to match them by playing Lamar Odom at the 4. Without McGrady, the Rockets will still likely go small, sometimes playing Brooks and Lowry together in the same backcourt, sometimes bringing in Von Wafer, but the impact will not be nearly the same. The lineup may not even be dangerous enough to make L.A. want to go small to match Houston’s personnel.

The real story here, however, is that in discussing Houston’s playoff potential, it is once again a “what if?” hypothetical. As J.A. Adande writes in a column for ESPN.com, Houston has to wonder how much longer it wants to bank on Yao as the centerpiece of its franchise, given his considerable injury history. He and McGrady were a dream combination on paper, but this year, as usual, they have failed to come together on the court.

- Methinks Brett Favre is getting kind of a raw deal this offseason. His potential return is all speculation, yet there are a lot of people telling him to go away (when he’s already gone away). Anyway, according to VIKINGS GAB, Favre told Trent Dilfer via text message that he is not coming out of retirement again.

- Forget what I said about #4 getting a raw deal. DEADSPIN is reporting that he and Vikings head coach Brad Childress are going to meet at an “undisclosed location” to discuss Favre’s status. So much for his desire to “retire a Packer.”

- FIVE TOOL TOOL gives props to Yao Ming for fighting off knee pain to help the Rockets close out the Lakers in Game 1 last night.

- NBA TIPOFF explains what’s going on with Ron Artest’s mohawk.

- SPORTSbyBROOKS has the dirt on the budding feud between ESPN’s Jon Barry and Atlanta head coach Mike Woodson. Does anyone care? For the record, I agree that for a seven-game series, that Hawks/Heat tilt was pretty dreadful.

By now you know that the Orlando Magic and Houston Rockets each managed to win Game 1 on the road, but what you may not know is how exactly they managed to pull those wins out.

Orlando rode a 30-17 second quarter to an 18-point lead at halftime, and led by as many as 28 (65-27) with nine minutes to play in the third quarter before the Celtics finally showed up to play. Boston whittled the lead down to four with two minutes to play, but a timely drive by Rafer Alston and four straight free throws by J.J. Redick helped the Magic hold on for the win.

Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo each went 2 of 12 from the field, so most of the Celtics’ scoring was left to Paul Pierce who finished with 23 points on 7 of 18 shooting. Boston simply wasn’t sharp; it might have been fatigue or maybe it was just one of those nights. Dwight Howard finished with 16 points, 22 rebounds and three blocks, and the C’s simply didn’t have an answer for him inside. Rashard Lewis, Hedo Turkoglu and Rafer Alston combined to shoot 17 of 45 (38%) from the field, so it’s not like Orlando was running on all cylinders, either.

Meanwhile, in L.A., the Rockets capitalized on the Lakers’ flat play. Yao Ming posted 28 points and 10 rebounds, while Ron Artest chipped in with 21 points and seven assists. But the key was the play of point guard Aaron Brooks, who outscored Derek Fisher (19 to eight) and came up with a pair of timely buckets in the fourth quarter. Along with Kyle Lowry, the Rockets have quickness in the backcourt that the Lakers can’t match unless they elect to play Shannon Brown and/or Jordan Farmar.

Shane Battier did a nice job defensively on Kobe Bryant, who scored 32 points but didn’t really get going until the Lakers were in scramble mode late in the game. He had seven points in the last 1:32, so without those makes, he was 12 of 29 (41%) for 25 points. Pau Gasol (14 points), Lamar Odom (9 points) and Andrew Bynum (10 points) all had relatively quiet games, which allowed the Rockets to spring the upset. In Artest, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes and Yao Ming, the Rockets have one of the best defensive front lines in the league, so they have the personnel to slow down the Laker big men.

Watch Battier’s hands when he defends Kobe’s jumper. He essentially sticks his hand right in Kobe’s face, almost as if he’s about to poke Kobe in the eye. This can be distracting to a shooter, though I’m sure Bryant has seen it time and time again. Battier has the quickness and strength to keep Bryant out of the lane (most of the time, anyway) and the Rockets know they have a chance against the Lakers if they can turn Kobe into more of a shooter and less of a scorer.

Every so often, I’ll be sitting at a bar, throwing back a few adult beverages with a buddy or two and I’ll pose the following question:

If you could have one current NBA player to build your franchise around, with the goal of winning a NBA title in the next five years – who would it be?

Since the 2009 NBA Playoffs are in their infancy, it seems to be as good of a time as any to kick around this question. My criteria are simple – a franchise player has to be able to carry his team, while being reasonably young and injury-free.

We’ll count down from #10 to #1. My top nine guys were pretty easy to list, but #10 was a bitch. Maybe you can help me decide. Feel free to provide your own top 10.

HONORABLE MENTION

Yao Ming, Rockets (28 years-old)
I love Yao’s post up game, and he is a skilled passer, but the chances are only 60/40 that he’ll be healthy for any given playoffs and those odds are only going to decrease as time wears on. He’s like Robert Downey, Jr. — he’s great at what he does, but you just don’t know if he’s going to be there when you need him.

Chauncey Billups, Nuggets (32)
He seems to be more responsible than ‘Melo for the Nuggets’ great play this season, but he’s 32 years old. Still, his effectiveness depends more on strength, steady play and good shooting than it does his (somewhat limited) athleticism, so he should be able to play into his late thirties.

Al Jefferson, Timberwolves (24)
Jefferson is one of the few young, back-to-the-basket post players in the league. He averaged 23/11 on a bad team, which leads me to believe he could post 19/10 on a playoff team, and should only get better with age.

Amare Stoudemire, Suns (26)
He’s four years younger than our next guy, but he’s already had two serious injuries in his career so one wonders if this is a trend. He also seems to be a little bit on the selfish side and has a rep for being a bad defensive player.

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